Why UNC, Michigan St, Louisville and UConn Will Reach the Final Four

Before the 2007-2008 college basketball season, I came up with a mathematical formula to create my very own preseason Top 25.  As it turned out, the top three teams in my rankings (Memphis, Kansas and UCLA) made the Final Four.  My number four team, Louisville, did not but my number five team, North Carolina, did.

The chances of lightning striking twice are slim, but I decided to apply the formula again as we get ready to start the 2008-2009 season.

The formula has three parts:

A. Previous season finish

The previous season's national champion (Kansas) starts off with 65 points.

The runner-up (Memphis) gets 64.

Losing in the Final Four (UNC, UCLA) gets you 63 points.

Teams losing in the Elite Eight get 61.

Teams losing in the Sweet 16 get 57.

Teams losing in the second round get 49.

Teams losing in the first round get 33.

And teams which missed the tournament, but are expected to improve this year, get 18.


B. Returning Impact Players

That starting number is then multiplied by the number of returning players that I believe will have a major impact on the team this season.


C. Impact Freshmen

Finally, I take that subtotal and add 10 points for every impact freshman joining the team this year.  Impact transfers fall into this category as well.


I have ranked the following 40 teams in order of the total points they receive according to this formula.  If you feel like I have left someone out or your favorite team should be higher up the list, let me know.


1. North Carolina (63*6+30=408)
Returners: Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, Danny Green, Deon Thompson, Marcus Ginyard
Freshmen: Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis, Larry Drew

2. Michigan State (57*4+30=258)
Returners: Raymar Morgan, Kalin Lucas, Goran Suton, Chris Allen
Freshmen: Delvon Roe, Draymond Green, Korie Lucious

3. Louisville (61*4+10=254)
Returners: Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa
Freshmen: Samardo Samuels

4. Connecticut (33*6+30=228)
Returners: A.J. Price, Jeff Adrien, Jerome Dyson, Hasheem Thabeet, Craig Austrie, Doug Wiggins
Freshmen: Kemba Walker, Scottie Haralson, Nate Miles

t5. Pittsburgh (49*4+30=226)
Returners: Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, Levance Fields, Mike Cook
Freshmen: Nasir Robinson, Ashton Gibbs, Travon Woodall

t5. Duke (49*4+30=226)
Returners: Kyle Singler, Gerald Henderson, Joon Scheyer, Greg Paulus
Freshmen: Elliot Williams, Miles Plumlee, Olek Czyz

7. UCLA (63*3+30=219)
Returners: Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Alfred Aboya
Freshmen: Jrue Holiday, Drew Gordon, J’Mison Morgan

8. Oklahoma (49*4+20=216)
Returners: Blake Griffin, Tony Crocker, Austin Johnson, Taylor Griffin
Freshmen: Willie Warren, Ray Willis

9. Miami, Fla (49*4+10=206)
Returners: Jack McClinton, James Dews, Brian Asbury, Dwayne Collins
Freshmen: DeQuan Jones

t10. Purdue (49*4+0=196)
Returners: E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel, Keaton Grant, Chris Kramer

t10. Notre Dame (49*4+0=196)
Returners: Luke Harangody, Kyle McAlarney, Tory Jackson, Ryan Ayers

t10. Marquette (49*4+0=196)
Returners: Jerel McNeal, Lazar Hayward, Dominic James, Wesley Matthews

13. Texas (61*3+0=183)
Returners: A.J. Abrams, Damion James, Connor Atchley

14. Tennessee (57*3+10=181)
Returners: Tyler Smith, Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince
Freshmen: Scotty Hopson

15. Georgetown (49*3+30=177)
Returners: DaJuan Summers, Jessie Sapp, Austin Freeman
Freshmen: Greg Monroe, Henry Sims, Jason Clark

16. Gonzaga (33*5+10=175)
Returners: Matt Bouldin, Jeremy Pargo, Austin Daye, Josh Heytvelt, Micah Downs
Freshmen: Demetri Goodson

17. Villanova (57*3+0=171)
Returners: Scottie Reynolds, Dante Cunningham, Corey Fisher

18. UNLV (49*3+20=167)
Returners: Wink Adams, Joe Darger, Rene Rougeau
Freshmen: Tre’Von Willis (transfer), Beas Hamga (redshirt)

19. Baylor (33*5+0=165)
Returners: Curtis Jerrells, LaceDarius Dunn, Kevin Rogers, Henry Dugat, Tweety Carter

20. Memphis (64*2+30=158)
Returners: Robert Dozier, Antonio Anderson
Freshmen: Tyreke Evans, Wesley Witherspoon, Angel Garcia

t21. Texas A&M (49*3+0=147)
Returners: Josh Carter, Donald Sloan, Bryan Davis

t21. Siena (49*3+0=147)
Returners: Edwin Ubiles, Kenny Hasbrouck, Alex Franklin

23. Xavier (61*2+20=142)
Returners: Derrick Brown, C.J. Anderson
Freshmen: Kenny Frease, Terrell Holloway

24. Kansas (65*2+10=140)
Returners: Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich
Freshmen: Quintrell Thomas

25. Wake Forest (18*6+30=138)
Returners: Jame Johnson, Jeff Teague, L.D. Williams, Ishmael Smith, Chas McFarland, Harvey Hale
Freshmen: Al-Farouq Aminu

26. Saint Mary’s (33*4+0=132)
Returners: Patrick Mills, Diamon Simpson, Omar Samhan, Ian O’Leary

t27. Syracuse (18*6+20=128)
Returners: Eric Devendorf, Johnny Flynn, Paul Harris, Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, Kris Ongenaet
Freshmen: Kris Joseph, Mookie Jones

t27. Arizona State (18*6+20=128)
Returners: James Harden, Jeff Pendergraph, Ty Abbott, Derek Glasser, Jerren Shipp, Eric Boateng
Freshmen: Taylor Rhode, Johnny Coy

t29. Washington State (57*2+10=124)
Returners: Taylor Rochestie, Aron Baynes
Freshmen: Klay Thompson

t29. West Virginia (57*2+10=124)
Returners: Alex Ruoff, Da’Sean Butler
Freshmen: Kevin Jones

31. Florida (18*5+30=120)
Returners: Nick Calathes, Walter Hodge, Dan Werner, Jai Lucas, Chandler Parsons
Freshmen: Eloy Vargas, Kenneth Kadji, Rayford Shipman

32. USC (33*3+20=119)
Returners: Dwight Lewis, Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett
Freshmen: Demar DeRozan, Leonard Washington

33. Wisconsin (57*2+0=114)
Returners: Trevor Hughes, Marcus Landry

34. Clemson (33*3+0=109)
Returners: K.C. Rivers, Trevor Booker, Terrence Oglesby

35. San Diego (49*2+0=98)
Returners: Brandon Johnson, Gyno Pomare

36. LSU (18*5+0=90)
Returners: Marcus Thornton, Chris Johnson, Terry Martin, Bo Spencer, Garrett Temple

37. Kentucky (33*2+10=76)
Returners: Patrick Patterson, Jodie Meeks
Freshman: DeAndre Liggins

38. Minnesota (18*3+20=74)
Returners: Blake Hoffarber, Damian Johnson, Lawrence Westbrook
Freshmen: Ralph Sampson III, Devoe Joseph

39. Davidson (61*1+10=71)
Returners: Stephen Curry
Freshmen: Frank Ben-Eze

40. BYU (33*2+0=66)
Returners: Lee Cummard, Jonathan Tavernari

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com. Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]