UFC 134 Fight Card Breakdown: Griffin vs. Rua

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Forrest Griffin have history with each other.

The two men fought at UFC 74, with Griffin winning by third-round rear-naked choke.

Before entering the UFC, Rua was on a tear in Pride and considered to be the best light heavyweight in the world, so when Forrest won the fight it was considered a huge upset.

Since then, both men have won and lost the UFC light heavyweight championship and are working towards getting another title shot.

It appears that Shogun's and Forrest's paths have crossed again, as the two are slated to meet at UFC 134.

There should be some extra motivation for Mauricio to win the fight because the event takes place in his homeland, Brazil.

Let's see how these two stack up...

Experience

This one is very close.

Both of these guys have been in the main event for pay-per-views, been UFC light heavyweight champion and competed against world class competition.

I'm giving Griffin a very slight edge in experience because he's beaten Rua before and so he knows what he needs to do to win this fight. The same can't be said about Mauricio.

Edge: Forrest Griffin

Cardio

It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that Forrest will definitely have the cardiovascular advantage.

Griffin is known for never getting tired in fights and staying in his opponent's face until the final bell, or until he or his opponent earns a stoppage.

Rua's cardio has looked very hit-and-miss since he entered the UFC. He tired pretty quickly in his first fight with Griffin, as well as in his fights with Mark Coleman and Jon Jones.

Shogun did go five rounds with Lyoto Machida, so we might see him come into this fight in good shape.

It all comes down to knowing that Forrest's cardio will be excellent as always, but Mauricio's is a big question mark.

Edge: Forrest Griffin

Striking

Forrest has shown throughout his UFC career that he has some solid striking. He actually did pretty well striking with Rua in the first fight. Griffin has also held his own against Quinton Jackson and was doing very well striking with Rashad Evans, before he got knocked out.

Rua is a world class Muay Thai striker. Shogun has stood with some of the greatest strikers in the history of the light heavyweight division and got the better of them. A few of the high level strikers he's knocked out are Lyoto Machida, Chuck Liddell and Quinton Jackson.

I would expect Shogun to have a slight technical advantage in the striking, but a big power advantage. Rua is known for knocking guys out and Griffin is not.

Edge: Mauricio Rua

Chin

For this one we just need to look at the stats.

Forrest has be knocked out four times in his career.

Mauricio has only been legitimately knocked out once in his career.

Edge: Mauricio Rua

Grappling

It's tough to tell who will hold the grappling advantage.

Mauricio scored more takedowns the first time the two fought, with five. However, Rua went for a total of 12 takedowns, so Forrest did stop more than half of them.

Griffin only went for two takedowns in the fight and was successful both times. He was also able to reverse Rua when Rua got him down and he was also able to pass Shogun's guard, which Shogun was not able to do to him.

It's close but...

Edge: Forrest Griffin

Submissions

Forrest have never been submitted and seven of his 18 wins have come by submission. He has also already submitted Shogun.

Shogun has only won once by submission in his career and has been submitted twice.

Griffin has an underrated ground game; he's very good when a fight hits the mat.

Shogun just doesn't have the submission skills to compete with Forrest, if the fight hits the mat.

Edge: Forrest Griffin

Winner?

Forrest Griffin vs. Mauricio Rua 2 is a tough fight to call.

I think that Rua is going to come in as a more game opponent than he did last time. Mauricio fought already this year and isn't coming off any surgeries, so I'm expecting his cardio to be better than in the first fight.

Forrest is likely going to use his length to stay on the outside and avoid Shogun's power.

Rua will have to lunge at Forrest to land his shots and I think Griffin will take those opportunities to clinch and get the takedown.

It's going to a war like it was the first time, but now that Forrest knows what an advantage he has on the ground, I think he's going to work more to get it there and be successful.

Rua does have pretty good submission defense and I believe his submission loss in the first fight was more due to him gassing out than anything else.

I'm looking for Forrest to control this fight and take the decision. I'm betting on Mauricio coming in with better cardio and not wilting, so Griffin will have a much harder time putting him away.

Winner: Forrest Griffin via Unanimous Decision