Creature Vs. Creature: A Tiger on LSU-Georgia

When LSU and Georgia line it up, the matchup rarely lacks importance. Two of the four times LSU reached the SEC Championship game, they’ve faced the Dawgs and split the result. UGA has won the last two meetings with LSU, while the Tigers won the two before that.

Both teams have a healthy respect for each other, and there’s actually been a budding rivalry in recent years for teams that have a four-year layoff between regular season meetings.

The Bulldogs came into the season picked by many to be in the National Championship mix. UGA lost a tough one at home to Alabama earlier in the season, and LSU got blown out two weeks ago by Florida amidst talk of a rebuilding year.

Now both teams, even with one loss, still control their own destinies in their respective divisions. This game is extremely important to the division race, and no doubt there will be some interested onlookers in Gainesville and Tuscaloosa.

The last time these two teams met in Baton Rouge, they did so during the light of day (just as this game will be), and the game went down to the wire with Matt Mauck hitting Skyler Green in the end zone for the go-ahead score. The Tigers won 17-10 on their way to the ’03 National Championship. Some call that game the best day crowd Tiger Stadium’s ever seen.

With LSU hosting their biggest recruiting weekend of the season this Saturday, it’s in the Tigers’ best interest that the crowd gives a similar performance.

LSU Will Win If...

1) The Tigers stay fundamental on defense.

While the Bulldogs can’t plague you with mismatches like Florida can, they can kill you with their every down players. Knowshon Moreno continues to be one of my favorite backs to watch. Even if the Tigers limit No. 24, they’d have to deal with Matthew Stafford, who has one of the best arms in the country.

Basically, now is not the time to do anything cute or fancy. Read well, fill gaps, tackle well. Pass up the big hit in order to play the ball, and don’t get beat deep.

Also, not staying technically sound against a back like Moreno will put purple and gold on his highlight film at the NFL Draft. He might not be getting much help from his line, and if LSU can stay fundamental they stand a chance to...

2) Effectively harass Stafford with the “Express Package.”

LSU introduced this wrinkle last week, using four defensive ends to put pressure on Stephen Garcia. The Tigers had six sacks in that game and other hurries against a mobile QB. But Stafford doesn’t have wheels like Garcia.

If the Tigers are sound on first and second down and force UGA into unfavorable down and distance situations, then they can really come after Stafford, especially if the Bayou Bengals can get pressure with rushing only four. This may be a possibility since the UGA offensive line is relegated to starting three freshmen and two sophomores.

The problem here is Moreno, who is an excellent receiver out of the backfield.

LSU Will Lose If...

1) Georgia hits on the big play.

The Gators killed LSU with big plays. While LSU QB Jarrett Lee is still learning, it’s essential that his defense gives him not only short fields to work with, but also a tight score.

The lingering pessimistic thought in every Tiger fan’s head is that the UGA offense will wake up against LSU much like Florida’s offense did. If this happens, expect the same kind of result with the Dawgs winning in a walk.

2) Georgia wins the field position battle.

This could be a very tight game. LSU won a seven-point game and overcame mistakes last week by dominating the field position game. If the Tigers have to rely on multiple 80-yard drives by a redshirt freshman, it may be a long afternoon.

Part of this may also be determined by penalties. UGA is last in the SEC in penalties, claiming LSU’s spot from a year ago. If LSU is worse on penalties this Saturday, the Tigers may make things a little too tough on themselves.

The X Factor

The kicking game

If this is truly a close one, then field position can be changed a bit by effective punting. Brian Mims has been great so far for the Bulldogs, as they are second in the conference in punting average.

Favorable field position could lead to possible points through the placekickers. LSU’s Colt David has been solid all season and looks to be on autopilot. UGA’s freshman Blair Walsh may be kicking in a pressure situation unlike any he’s experienced so far. Walsh is 11-15 on the year, and key misses could make this one go the wrong way for Georgia on the road.

But also keep in mind, I’m zero for two on “X-factors,” so get your grain of salt ready.

Prediction

OK, I predicted LSU to lose at Auburn and Florida. I predicted a win in every other game, so I’m 5-1 for the season with my loss coming on the underestimation of LSU. If I lose this one, it’ll be for the opposite reason.

LSU’s defense is said to be the key against a potent Georgia offense, but another major factor will be whether or not LSU’s offense can be effective against the stout Bulldog D.

That will come in the form of the Tigers being effective on the run with Charles Scott and the reemergence of Keiland Williams. If these guys can get yards, then Jarrett Lee’s day becomes a bit easier. Of course, Lee could make things easier on himself by not throwing six points to the other team like he did against AU, UF, and SC.

Despite his obvious mistakes, Lee is fourth in the conference in pass efficiency behind Tim Tebow, Matthew Stafford, and John Parker Wilson. Oh, and don’t be surprised to see Lee get off to a slow start and then recover—it’s kind of his thing.

If LSU fails in any of the keys above, not only could it lead to a loss, but also another decisive win for the opposition. This game is really equally important to both squads, so urgency isn’t really a factor.

However, I think LSU will be successful in what it tries to do against the Dawgs. The Tigers are able to effectively keep Moreno from a huge day and pressure Stafford enough to make him ineffective.

After feeling each other out in the first half, the Bulldogs go in with a seven-point lead. But in the second half, the Tigers run the ball just well enough to keep the D off Lee’s back. The LSU defense must make some big stops, but Lee has to be the hero, converting key third downs in order to lead to a late game-winning field goal by Colt David.

LSU 27, UGA 24

To read up on the Georgia side of things, "hunker down" with Georgia Dawg.