Who Needs What To Win?

Ok, so we now have a two-horse race, or should I say a one-horse race, chasing an arrow, after Lewis Hamilton extended his lead over Felipe Massa by two points, to lead the WDC by just seven points. Deja Vu?

We have one race left. The showdown will take place in Brazil as it has done since 2005.

With just two drivers able to win, what exactly do they need to secure the WDC?

With a seven point lead, Hamilton has a huge advantage, meaning he can finish behind Massa and easily win. Lets take a look at the situations;

Massa First.

(+10 points)

Hamilton eighth - Massa 97, Hamilton 95 (+1). Massa wins by two points.

Hamilton seventh - Massa 97, Hamilton 96 (+2). Massa wins by one point.

Hamilton sixth - Massa 97, Hamilton 97 (+3). Massa wins with six wins to five.

Hamilton fifth - Massa 97, Hamilton 98 (+4). Hamilton wins by one point.

Anything better than sixth by Hamilton will result in a win.

Massa Second.

(+8 points)

Hamilton ninth - Massa 95, Hamilton 94 (+0). Massa wins by one point.

Hamilton eighth - Massa 95, Hamilton 95 (+1). Massa wins with three second places to two.

Hamilton seventh - Massa 95, Hamilton 96 (+2). Hamilton wins by one point.

Anything better than eighth by Hamilton will result in a win.

Massa Third.

(+6 points)

Hamilton ninth - Massa 93, Hamilton 94 (+0). Hamilton wins by one point.

Any result for Hamilton, even a DNF, will result in a win for Lewis.

So basically, Massa needs to finish first or second in order to win. Anything below he has no chance, even if Lewis scores zero.

Lewis needs to finish fifth or better if Massa wins, or seventh and better if Massa is second.

Certainly sounds like Massa has a hard task on his hands, but Raikkonen did it in 2007, so what's going to stop Felipe doing the same? 

Constructors: Again, we have two teams who can win. Ferrari currently have an 11 point lead, which means there are many more combinations which could lead to Mclaren or Ferrari winning.

If Ferrari score a 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, 1-7, 1-8 or even 1-9 then they win the WCC, even if Mclaren get the next best two places, i.e. if Ferrari get a 1-9 and Mclaren get a 2-3, Ferrari will win by one point.

There are too many combinations, so lets just say Mclaren need a 1-2 or a Ferrari DNF and a second place for the remaining Ferrari.

Nothing is impossible.

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