2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions: Key Factors in Finding This Year's Winner
Super Saver, last year's Kentucky Derby champion, went off at the attractive odds of 8:1 as he rolled home with a rather easy two-and-a-half-length victory.
While Super Saver paid a very nice $18.00 for a $2 win ticket, race time favorite Lookin' at Lucky struggled throughout a troubled trip and finished a disappointing sixth.
So as we roll ever closer to the first Saturday in May, what are some of the things that could, or will, come into play during the 137th "Run for the Roses?"
Jockey
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Calvin "Bo-rail" Borel has been in the irons of three out of the last four Kentucky Derby winners. In all three of his winning rides in the Kentucky Derby, Borel was able to get his horse in and about traffic better than literally every other horse in the field.
Who could forget the masterful deep closing rail finish where he guided the 50:1 shot Mine That Bird to victory in 2009? Or the way in which he bobbed and weaved Street Sense beautifully through traffic in his last to first run in 2007? And how about last year, in which he was easily the best jockey on the track that day in winning the Derby with what wasn't even close to being the best horse?
So as you look to make your selection for the horse to win this year's Kentucky Derby, take a very close look at the jockey aboard your eventual selection. More times than not, the winning jockey is a "name" guy that has a solid amount of experience and is regarded as one of the best of the best.
Trainer
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Just last year, legendary trainer Todd Pletcher finally got the monkey off his back, as his smartly trained colt Super Saver brought home the victory.
Looking over the past 20 years of Kentucky Derby winners, only Bennie Woolley, Jr. really sticks out as an oddball "under the radar" unknown-type trainer.
Names such as Baffert, Zito, Asmussen, Lukas, Pletcher, Tagg and Shireffs riddle the board as trainers of past champions.
Thus, it is highly advisable when making your selection that having a name trainer is very much to your advantage. Much like great jockeys, experience in this race can never be overlooked, much less overestimated.
Breeding/Distance/Stamina
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2009 champion Mine That Bird was largely overlooked by the wagering public at 50:1 odds due to his past performances. What was largely overlooked by the vast majority of the wagering public that year was the strong bloodlines of Unbridled, Grindstone and Birdstone on Mine That Bird's sire side of his breeding.
The Kentucky Derby is typically the first time that three-year-old horses ever run the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. It is a distance that many a horse simply aren't bred to handle all that well.
Thus, another handy tip when looking over this year's entries is to make sure that your selection will likely have something left in the tank as it covers the final two furlongs down the long stretch at Churchill Downs. Over the years we have seen many a leader simply falter down the homestretch when the real racing in the Kentucky Derby begins.
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Horses for Courses
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This common saying obviously evolved from horse racing. It simply means that a horse that has had success at a track before is likely to have future success at that same track.
While the Kentucky Derby doesn't have a long heritage of horses that have run well in previous races at Churchill Downs, the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion Street Sense did have previous success at Churchill before he romped to victory in 2007.
Horses such as Shackleford, Santiva, Dialed In, ArchArchArch and Uncle Mo have all shown in the past that they have taken well to the track at Churchill Downs before. Other horses, such as Stay Thirsty and Twinspired, have come up flat while running in Louisville, and instead of running on the dirt in last year's Breeder's Cup, Soldat ran in the Juvenile Turf just last November.
While there isn't a long history of horses that have had success at Churchill Downs prior to winning the Kentucky Derby, any kind of advantage that you can find in handicapping this race must be taken into consideration.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Curse
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Only Street Sense has ever won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Every other horse since 1984 that has won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile has either not raced in the Kentucky Derby the following year or has come up short.
Why?
Anybody's guess, but the popular myth is that they peaked as two-year-olds and simply didn't get any better while their opposition was continually improving. Fair enough. But last year's Juvenile champion (Uncle Mo) may have put in as dominant a performance as you have ever seen in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Thus, if Uncle Mo is your horse this year, be very aware that the Juvenile "curse" has a frightening 25-1 record in unseating the previous year's champion.
Race as a Two-Year-Old
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The eventual winner of the Kentucky Derby has never been a horse that didn't race before its three-year-old season dating back to Apollo.
Apollo? Yes, he won the Kentucky Derby back in 1882.
Repeat: A horse has not won the Kentucky Derby dating back to 1882 if it did not have a race as a two-year-old.
Thus, in the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby, Midnight Interlude will be looking to overcome one of the longest streaks in all of sports. Even the great Curlin couldn't break this curse.
While Midnight Interlude will have legendary trainer Bob Baffert in his barn, he will need to break over 125 years of futility for extremely lightly raced colts from Kentucky Derby's past.
Stalkers Rule, but Aren't Invincible
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The winner of the 2008 Kentucky Derby, Big Brown, ran the style that we have typically come to see from Kentucky Derby champions: stalker.
Going over the last 20 victors in the "Run for the Roses," we see a trend begin to unfold: Super Saver, Big Brown, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, Monarchos, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero, Lil E Tee and Strike the Gold.
What do all these horses have in common? They were all horses that liked to stalk the pacesetters and settle in comfortably, looking to pounce in the stretch at Churchill Downs.
Thus, when perusing this year's Kentucky Derby hopefuls, it isn't a bad idea to look for horses that like to sit off the pace and pass horses coming down the stretch. It also isn't a horrible idea to look for deep closers such as Street Sense, Giacomo or Mine That Bird, as they have come rolling home from deep in the pack to come out victorious.
If there is a style you may want to avoid, it is the pacesetters. Horses that like to get to the lead generally find the going tough down the stretch in the Kentucky Derby. Only War Emblem over the past 20 years has been able to take the early lead in the Derby and hold on to come out victorious.
Weather
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Looking ahead to the forecast in Louisville for this Saturday, it looks like thunderstorms off and on throughout the day will be the name of the game.
Therefore, finding a horse that can take well to an off track will be vital for every handicapper. Just two years ago race time favorite Friesan Fire, who had trained beautifully all week prior to the race, simply didn't handle the wet and sloppy surface that day, as he finished a disappointing 18th.
Are there horses in this year's Derby that simply won't enjoy the footing of racing on a sloppy and/or wet track? Without any doubt, if we do get an off track, there will be some horses that won't run well due to the surface.
This is a difficult handicapping strategy, as most Triple Crown type horses have never trained on, much less raced on, a wet or off track.
Make sure to keep track of works this week over off track conditions. Those that train well in the slop will likely be the most well adjusted if we do have an off track on Saturday.
Dirt
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The racing surface at Churchill Downs is dirt. While that may not sound like such a big deal, it has become an interesting topic, as some of the other race tracks around the country have switched to all-weather synthetic racing surfaces.
More importantly, some of the bigger Kentucky Derby prep races find themselves being run on the all-weather surfaces at Turfway Park and Keeneland.
Why does it matter, you ask? The early reviews of these tracks have been mixed, but Santa Anita ripped up its all-weather track and brought back the dirt. Many handicappers simply won't count any all-weather races when handicapping a race that will be run on dirt.
This may not hold as big of a difference as other handicapping angles, but one should be a bit leery of horses that have done most (or all) of their racing on all-weather surfaces.
Beyers > 100
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There have only been three horses in the past 16 years that have won the Kentucky Derby after not earning at least a 100 Beyer in any of their three-year-old prep races.
That is a daunting figure rolling into this year's Derby, as only one horse has achieved that number in 2011 that will likely be entered into the field of 20: Soldat. As well, Soldat has shown that he may have some serious distance questions regarding his chances of winning this year's Kentucky Derby.
Therefore, it is most likely that we'll see yet another horse added to this list in 2011. Without any doubt, this year's Kentucky Derby prep races have been full of poor times and big favorites going down to what many felt were inferior horses before the race started.
So, the question is this: Are this year's crop of three-year-olds inferior to previous years, or are we seeing the training tactics and racing of these colts getting to be so gentle that trainers and jockeys are simply coddling these horses and holding them back for that single day in May?
Workouts
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More than maybe any other year in the history of the Kentucky Derby, there be much speculation and anticipation surrounding the workouts of Kentucky Derby hopefuls.
Throughout the tumultuous four months of prep races we have seen a number of long shots taking down huge favorites and anything and everything else in between. Quite simply, it will be tough to label a favorite for this race all the way up till race day.
Dialed In and Uncle Mo seem like the most logical choices, but either one is only a poor workout away from being taken down a notch. Any horse that seems to take well to the track this week at Churchill will likely see some solid tote action in its favor come Saturday.
Keep your eyes peeled this week, as you'll want to be checking the clocking of workouts as well as those getting the firsthand look to report on these works throughout the week.
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