UFC 129, Lyoto Machida vs. Randy Couture: Can the Dragon Regain the Fire?

One thing is for sure. On April 30, Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida will have no where to run and hide. 

There will be 50,000 people and 100,000 eyeballs in the building not to mention a legend in the ring to keep Machida from disappearing. He will need to face up to his demons in this fight, as I'm sure Randy Couture will game plan him to close distance and smother. Randy's plan in my view will not sit and allow Machida to stick and move and execute his Machida karate, so the question is can he regain the fire and reveal a dirty, backup game that we may not have seen from him to date? 

Lyoto Machida is a tremendous fighter who is coming off a couple tough losses to top dogs in the division. I am not demeaning or downplaying the merits and success of the elusive Machida style, I just believe that fighters sometimes need a backup plan and need to be willing to go to it to endure and suck it up when plan A sometimes seems ineffective.

In my opinion, Couture will test and smother all of Machida's striking unless "The Dragon" decides to run and evade all night long. Any exchange will see Randy closing the gap and bullying Machida to show a different aspect of his game. Lyoto has shown a habit of seeming lost at times when he is forced out of his comfort zone inside the Octagon. He will need to dig deep into his mental repertoire in this one to endure to figure out and counter what Couture will have to offer, and I am not sure that he will have an answer for the retiree. This fight will determine whether Machida will be heard of again in the UFC contender conversation.

The main problem I see for Couture is that, in my eyes, his last real stern test from a top-notch opponent goes all the way back to his battle with Big Nog in August 2009. I do not count the Toney fight as a real fight, and I'm sorry, but Mark Coleman is not in Machida's league at this point in his career. Can Couture track down this master of foot work and karate without being too gassed to do anything when he gets his hands on him?

The Sensei says that Machida engages. No one wants to run from an aging, retiring fighter, and Machida will want to make a statement in front of this crowd. That means that Randy will get his hands on him and test his will to win. Machida will give a great performance for The Natural to go out on but will fall just short of a judges' decision, and Couture will go out with a solid win.