Drew Stubbs: Why the Cincinnati Outfielder Might Be Your Best Draft-Day Value

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Drew Stubbs: Why the Cincinnati Outfielder Might Be Your Best Draft-Day Value
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Before I wrote this post, I performed a couple of quick searches on Google and needless to say I was disappointed. There is clearly not enough love out there for Cincinnati Reds’ outfielder Drew Stubbs.

That’s right, despite the bottom of my screen reading “Gooooooooooooooogle,” I was only able to pick out a couple of articles that touted Stubbs as a great value this season. “Grey” from Razzball.com put it best in his Stubbs post, “To think a guy who went 22/30 is a sleeper is laughable in some leagues.”

It’s true. Stubbs may have had the quietest, 20/30 season and it’s because he did most of his damage in the last two months of the season, and some of you may have checked out by then. From August 1, Stubbs batted .308, smashed nine home runs and stole 12 bases in 169 at-bats. Not too shabby.

But back to the problem on hand, how can someone with that kind of power/speed get  no respect amongst the fantasy community?

Yahoo! has him ranked 19th among outfielders and he went 81st overall (ahead of his teammate Jay Bruce) in ESPN’s first mock draft, yet he is being drafted 153rd overall in mock drafts and even Tristan Cockcroft has him 154th in his early top 250 rankings. I’m going to stop before I get angry.

It was just a couple of years ago we were drafting Grady Sizemore and now we have Stubbs, who at 26, is just entering his power prime of his career.

In Sizemore’s age-26 season, he hit 33 home runs and swiped 38 bases, and while that is a very generous projection for Stubbs, I think I’ve driven home the point that Sizemore was a first-round pick after that season and Stubbs is going in the 15th round. He screams value.

Now, Stubbs doesn’t come without his faults.

His .255 batting average leaves a lot to be desired and he has too many swinging strikes (11.7%) which is why he had the third highest strikeout percentage (32.7) among qualifying hitters. The other two? Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. However, if I had to choose one category for my hitter to be weak in it would be batting average.

What Stubbs brings to the table is a very unique power/speed combo (only three hitters went 20/30 last year) and good R/RBI opportunities in what should be a very good Reds offense. Keep in mind that B.J. Upton (83), Corey Hart (88), Delmon Young (93), Curtis Granderson (94), Colby Rasmus (95) and Sizemore (99) are all being drafted five-to-six rounds ahead of Stubbs in mock drafts.

Do yourselves a favor and don’t forget about him on draft day.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.263 BA | 95 R | 26 HR | 73 RBI | 37 SB

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