It’s hard to ask for a better sports betting matchup than two bitter NFC North rivals meeting in the conference title game. Let’s have a look at the key trends and stats to consider for the Packers vs Bears in the NFC Championship.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, January 23, 3:00 p.m. ET
Betting favorite: Packers -3.5
The Pack enter the Bears matchup with a ton of momentum, as you might guess with them favored by 3.5 points on the road. They’re 4-1 against the NFL betting spread over their last five games overall; 5-2 ATS over their last seven road games; and 7-3 ATS over their last 10 against the NFC. They’ve even beaten the spread in nine of their last 12 trips to Chicago.
However, the Packers’ playoff trends aren’t as positive. They’re 1-5 ATS over their last six playoff games when favored. Maybe they’re more comfortable in an underdog role.
Most of the Bears’ spread betting trends look favorable, too. The Bears are 4-1 ATS over their last five home games. They’re 6-1 ATS over their last seven against opponents with winning records. They’ve also beaten the spread four straight times. But are they happy being the dogs at home? Chicago is 2-9 ATS over its last 11 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
The UNDER is the prevalent trend in this series; each of the last six Packers/Bears meetings have fallen under the total. While eight of Green Bay’s last 10 road games have gone under the total, four of its last five playoff games have gone OVER.
The Bears are all about the over; it’s 5-1 over their last six playoff home games and 6-1 over their last seven games overall. The individual playoff online sports betting trends suggest this game will go over, but the history between the teams suggests otherwise.
The Packer defense, which ranked fifth overall this season and second with just 15 points allowed per game, will try to force mistakes out of Bears quarterback Jay Cutler. Green Bay was second in the league in both sacks and interceptions this season and has continued those trends in the playoffs. Tramon Williams has three picks in two games.
The Packer offense does most of its damage through the air via Aaron Rodgers, ranking fifth in that regard. But it’s only 24th in rushing and, aside from one good game against the Eagles in the Wild Card round, hasn’t shown much improvement.
The Bears were just 30th in total offense this season but that didn’t stop them from rolling up 35 points on lowly Seattle last week. Jay Cutler threw two touchdown passes and ran for two more. Is Green Bay’s offense an awkward matchup for Chicago’s “D,” however? The Bears are second in run defense but Green Bay doesn’t run. The Bears are just 20th against the pass and Green Bay loves to throw.