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The time has come for my official NHL Eastern Conference preview and predictions, which will be located in this article...

NHL Eastern Conference Predictions

by Greg Caggiano (Senior Writer)

38

2,560 reads

Preview/Prediction

September 03, 2008


The time has come for my official NHL Eastern Conference preview and predictions, which will be located in this article. I was originally going to wait until Mats Sundin signed somewhere but since it looks as if hell will freeze over before then, I figure I'll get busy with this.

 

Final Standings

1. Montreal Canadiens*

2. New York Rangers*

3. Washington Capitals*

4. Pittsburgh Penguins

5. Philadelphia Flyers

6. Boston Bruins

7. New Jersey Devils

8. Carolina Hurricanes

-----------------------

9. Tampa Bay Lightning

10. Ottawa Senators

11. Buffalo Sabres

12. Toronto Maple Leafs

13. Florida Panthers

14. Atlanta Thrashers

15. New York Islanders

 

Team Analysis

 

1. Montreal Canadiens

For the second straight season, the Montreal Canadiens will win the Eastern Conference. This team established themselves as one of the fastest and most exciting teams in the league last season and they are virtually unchanged coming into this season.

The only difference in the lineup will be winger and former thirty goal scorer Alex Tanguay, who will only strengthen the offense. The team also got tougher and they now have a bonafide enforcer in the lineup with Georges Laraque.

The only question with this team will be the goaltending and I wonder how well Carey Price will hold up in what will be his first full season in the NHL. The offense should be enough to carry the team through the regular season but it will be up to goaltending and defense when the playoffs roll around.

 

2. New York Rangers

Two months ago I boldly predicted that the New York Rangers would win the Atlantic division and I'm sticking by that. The team went in the right direction by letting Jaromir Jagr and Martin Straka go, and acknowledging that it will be Scott Gomez and Chris Drury who will be the future of this offense.

The additions of Nikolai Zherdev and Markus Naslund will only improve the team as Zherdev is incredibly skilled and exciting, while a change of scenery will do Naslund good.

Also, look for big free agent acquisition defenseman Wade Redden to turn into a Brian Leetch-type figure for this team, as they have lacked a power play quarterback since his departure.

Their defensive core is young and solid; combine that with goaltender "King" Henrik Lundqvist, and this team can go deep into the playoffs.

 

3. Washington Capitals

In what is a very weak Southeast division, the Washington Capitals will once again come away the victors.

Their offense will rank among the best in the league with young players like Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Niklas Backstrom leading the way. Add to that the veteran presence of Sergei Federov and Viktor Kozlov, and there are no worries on offense.

However, their defense and goaltending are questionable as the only D-man worth noting is sniper Mike Green. To say that Jose Theodore is an upgrade over Olaf Kolzig is a bit of an over-statement, but Theodore played well with the Avalanche last season and the offense of this team should keep the pressure off on most nights.

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38 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment

  1. philip bottfeld 10 months ago

    Biggest acquisition on defense was ballard.. but good write up... panthers are gonna be a lot better than you think. It's not normal to assume they won't be good.. but you're forgetting how injured the team was last year and the old guys are getting replaced by high profile prospects (Frolik and Matthias) Panthers are gonna score more this year without Jokinen and deadweight stumpel

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    • Aaron Brenker 10 months ago

      Definitely theres no love for the Panthers lol, but it's deserved they haven't made the playoffs in 8 years. Hopefully it will be different this year. I'm pretty confident they will be better than they were last year.

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  2. Nelson Santos 10 months ago

    Nice rankings Greg. Can't really argue with any of them. I do however think TB wins more games in the "Southleast" division than Carolina and they for that reason squeak out 8th in the conference.

    The acquisition of Mezsaros will improve their defensive corps greatly. He along with Carle should add some nice puck movement and better defensive zone play. They are both upgrades on Kuba and Picard. TB may struggle on the PP with the departures of Boyle and Richards however. If they can find a PP QB (maybe either Carle or Mezzy) they will be okay.

    As far as goaltending I think Olaf still has enough in the tank to be a contributor to success and Mike Smith is a GIANT of a goaltender that hasn't got much playing time thus far what with backing up Turco in Dallas. But when you watch such a big man be so athletic it's hard to believe he won't excel. I also believe Kolzig was brought in to mentor Smith. Zilla is a classy pro and will prbably accept the role of mentor as opposed to needing to be the #1 guy. An astute choice by Feaster as Kolzig is the same in size and make up as Smith.
    Also with the offense TB should put up Smith will only have to limit the opponents to 3 or 4 goals for the win.

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  3. Pat Ferguson 10 months ago

    I agree with most of these rankings, although i always have trouble believing that Carolina will make the playoffs... they seem to surprise sometimes.

    Sydney crosby with only 96 points? Are you forecasting an injury for him? I would put his point total closer to ovachkins, in fact above it if he can stay healthy and play 82 games.

    I like the rangers in the number 2 spot, but I think it will be less than 4 points difference between them and pittsburgh.

    I see Ottawa making the playoffs though... NJ I see being the odd man out then.

    Ottawa still has a phenom top line (and I would give fischer, kelly, and vermette more respect than you are I guess)

    Good rankings though, a little different perspective than mine, but good thoughts.

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  4. Eric K 10 months ago

    The Pens "even won the Atlantic Division last season. However, Marian Hossa was a big part of that and he is no longer with the team."

    Hossa actually had absolutely nothing to do with the Pens winning the division, he played in something like 2 or 3 games before they clinched it. And the guys who were with the team prior to Hossa (Armstrong, Christensen) didn't contribute much offensively to the division winning efforts, so when you project how Satan, Fedotenko and possibly Pesonen will help the team, the Pens actually have a better shot at winning the division this coming season than they did last.
    And who knows what would've happened if the injury bug didn't bite as hard as it did last year.
    The Atlantic is Pittsburgh's to lose, and I can't see them losing it anytime in the near future, barring a complete catastrophe that sidelines Malkin, Crosby, Gonchar and Fleury at the same time.

    I agree with the rest of your rankings, but I can see why Pat feels that NJ could be the odd-man-out of the playoff picture. That neutral zone trap, dump-and-chase system has to stop working eventually, right?

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    • Greg Caggiano 10 months ago

      I coach hockey and as much as I hate the trap, when I have a lead in the third period, my team is trapping, and WINNING.

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  5. Alan Bass 10 months ago

    This was an unbelievable piece of analysis, Greg, great job!
    I think that Hossa leaving is not going to hurt Pittsburgh at all. He barely played with them during the season and they won the division.
    Rangers, I think you're being a bit generous as far as they go. They are a good team, but I think half of the players are going to be hit or miss, and they won't win the division there.
    You're spot on with the Flyers, and it's not often I say that to a Rangers' fan.
    Montreal and Washington are good, I think you're right with those.
    My last bone to pick: I think you were a bit stingy giving out points to players...Ovie will hit that 125 mark you give him, but Sid will definitely break 100, barring injury. Malkin will probably hit that mark again, while Lecavalier will hit the 100 point mark and 50 goal mark as well with an improved team, I think.
    But I do like your playoff picks, I agree with all but one. You'll find that one out in a few days!

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    • Jeff Badger 10 months ago

      Yah I'm not likely the point totals either. Heatly will be in the 100 range also if he doesn't get injured again. And Backstrom will rack up like 80 assists if he's playing with Ovechkin again.

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    • Spencer Callaghan 10 months ago

      Good point Jeff, where the hell is Heatley in your point totals?

      Sure he had an off year last season...ONLY 82 points, but he was injured.

      As long as Heatley is healthy, he can easily go back to putting up 50 goals and 100 points, as he did the previous two seasons.

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  6. Eric K 10 months ago

    Greg,
    It's one thing to do it late in the third with the lead... but the Devils have been doing it all game long, in every game, since sometime in the 90's haha.

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  7. Miah D. 10 months ago

    great list Greg,

    However, I wouldnt put Pittsburgh that far.
    great analysis,

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  8. MJ Kasprzak 10 months ago

    You know, normally when one person makes predictions, there are glaring faults. Then when you do it yourself, everyone chides your picks as if the differences of opinion are the the most ridiculous mistakes since the Vikings traded for Herschel Walker. However, in this case while I think a couple of them are off a place or two, they are not enough so to quibble with. Good job!

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  9. Sean Scrivener 10 months ago

    Keep underestimating Ottawa, I love it!!! I would have put New Jersey in the 10th spot rather then Ottawa. Look for this team to be in the top four with the acquisition two veteran defencemen that solidifies the defence in Ottawa with two solid lines of scoring. Also look for this team to make a splash at the trade deadline this year too make the team better.

    Other then that, I think the rankings are pretty good.

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  10. Dan Noon 10 months ago

    you seem to be missing a guy named THORNTON from your points leaders....your predictions are way off, my article tells the real story.

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  11. Spencer Callaghan 10 months ago

    All this talk about Ottawa being a one line team is completely unfounded.

    One person says it and then everyone repeats it as gospel.

    Ottawa's top 6, yes that's SIX as in top two lines, were second in the NHL last season in scoring.

    Add to that the fact that even if you are right and Ottawa does only have one line, it was the top scoring trio in the NHL last season.

    Don't be fooled by the losses on defence, Ottawa's defence has lost a few overrated names, which Rangers fans and Bolts fans will soon find out, but it has gained overall strength.

    Anyway, keep underestimating the Sens, it will only make the victories sweeter.

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  12. Ryan 10 months ago

    Not bad but on your Buffalo portion: "The only offensive player worth mentioning is Thomas Vanek." You mean except for the young upstart who led the team with 80 points, Derek Roy? He's a shifty, fast, talented two-way center and should only improve.

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  13. Jeff Badger 10 months ago

    Good post - I agree with the vast majority of your predictions, but I think 7-10 are pretty much a crap shoot (as always). I don't think Tampa will be as good as you think, and the SE will have a hard time fielding 2 playoff teams.

    I must say I am a bit surprised with your analysis of the Leafs:

    "Their offense will enjoy moderate success but the defense and goaltending will struggle."

    Funny, cause that's the exact opposite of what I've read from most other analysts. Leafs have no bonified scorers AT ALL (though look for Blake to save some face this year with 25+), but they have added defensive minded D-men who are far less prone to give-aways, one of the best Team-Defense coaches in the game in Wilson, and goaltending is without question better than it has been in 4 or 5 years. Only the Rangers, Devils, Pens, and maybe Habs (Price is still young) could claim to have better goaltending than the Leafs. The Leafs are going to play a defense-first system and finally might have a shut-down pair in Finger and Van Ryn. Any games they win will be 3-2 or 2-1, and they'll all be on the back of Toksala and the much more responsible D-core.

    Totally disagree with preferring McCabe over Finger. If you meant on the PP, ok fine, but Finger isn't going to be playing on the PP. He's the first DEFENSIVE D-man the Leafs have had since I can remember, and I'd rather him out there against Ottawa or Montreal's PP any night of the week instead of McCabe.

    I do agree they are likely going to be 12th, I just think they'll do it a whole lot differently than you suggest.

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  14. Steven Chang 10 months ago

    Its funny how some of you are saying that NJ should be out of the top 8. Considering that in the last 10 years, they have not finished lower than #6.

    Guess that little tidbit of information is not important.

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  15. Kevin Paul 10 months ago

    Don't forget the point with the Caps that it wasn't just Kolzig last year... that they also had acquired Huet, who played very well down the stretch, and they lost him, as he signed with another team.

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  1. Aaron Brenker 10 months ago

    Good article, but I think the Panthers changed a lot this off season. Losing Jokinen is a huge change along with adding defense man Boynton, Ballard and McCabe. They also picked up Stillman, so I think they made a good amount of changes, but anyways good predictions and good analysis on each team.

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  2. TJ Ferguson 10 months ago

    you think ovie is going to be the only player to score more than 100 points?

    at least malkin or crosby will get there, if not both of them

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  3. TJ Ferguson 10 months ago

    also, you forgot to mention that the bruins are getting bergeron back. i live in boston, when he was injured, fans just about wrote the season off, he will add a lot to that team that they didn't have last year

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  4. Robert White 10 months ago

    You pick Crosby and Malkin to combine for 160 points and Pittsburgh to finish 4th? Move Pittsburgh up to first and I couldn't argue too much with anything else. But then NYR are always predicted higher than they finish. Statistically, Habs are also a good historical pick, but this is one starless Habs squad. Fletcher may be turning into a senile old man, but if Sundin retires Leafs do have the budget to acquire an expensive player from a struggling team around Christmas. They may yet squeak by and forfeit any chance of a badly needed top draft pick... again.

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  5. Tyler Hill 10 months ago

    Yeah, our opinons are a little different in this area,but (except for pittsburgh finishing 4th) this could happen

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  6. Tyler Hill 10 months ago

    I dunno let's talk about it

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  7. Tyler Hill 10 months ago

    I give 20 on the pens beating out the rangers

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    • Greg Caggiano 10 months ago

      I'll take you up on that.

      Let's make it 20 packs of hockey cards so we don't have to worry about currency conversion...

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  8. jojo jojo 10 months ago

    Of course you picked the Islanders last, your a McCain fan.

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  9. Mark D 9 months ago

    Your player point predictions are very unrealistic. Do you really expect Ovechkin to win the scoring race by 26 points and score 30 more points than Crosby? Unless you are predicting another injury for Crosby, the projections you have suggested are way off base. They should look more like this:

    Crosby - 41 goals, 80 assists; 121 points
    Ovechkin - 66 goals, 50 assists; 116 points
    Malkin - 50 goals, 52 assists; 102 points
    Heatley - 50 goals, 50 assists; 100 points
    Lecavalier - 45 goals, 52 assists; 97 points
    Iginla - 50 goals, 45 assists; 95 points
    Thornton - 25 goals, 70 assists; 95 points
    Spezza - 38 goals, 52 assists; 90 points

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  10. Chuncky Hosenstick 9 months ago

    I don't know how you can pick Ottawa to miss the playoffs after making it 11 years in a row. The bad blood from last year (Emery) has been shipped off to Russia, Meszaros' sloppy defense can aggravate Tampa fans now. Significant grit and experience, coupled with promising new talent have been added. All this around what is a top 5 core team.

    Can they win it all? Maybe in 2 or 3 years. Goaltending, as mentioned, is a question mark, but they made the post season last year with Gerber (30-18-4) while the rest of the team played like they'd given up in February. Last year was the post-finals reality check for the Sens, not this one.

    I wouldn't be so optimistic about the Pens this year either, but I can only type so much truth in one day.

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