Cliff Lee Wins 20th Game of the Year: So What?

Before I get into this, let me first say: Congratulations!

The Cleveland Indians' unexpected ace, Cliff Lee, got his 20th win, against just two losses, yesterday with a five-hit shutout of the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox. 20 wins is no small accomplishment in today's game, where pitchers usually don't start more than 35 games in a season. A lot of things have to go well for you.

Two years ago, for the first time in a full season in history, no pitcher won 20 games in either league. Heck, nobody in the Senior Circuit won more than 16 games. So 20 wins is nothing to sneeze at, and is even more amazing when you consider that the boy went just 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA last year.

With that said, however, I'm going to need some tissues.

For one thing, Cliff Lee is not, as ESPN.com asserts, "putting together one of the best statistical seasons in baseball history." Well, he may be, but

1) It's only Sept. 2. There's a whole month of baseball left to play. And...

B) Lee's 20 "Wins" are owed as much to his teammates' performances (and more than a bit of luck) as they are to him.

Don't get me wrong. It's not that I think his 20 wins are a mirage, or that he doesn't deserve credit for them. He leads the majors in VORP and leads the AL in win shares, too, so the modern statistics (for once) bear out what the archaic ones would have us believe.

But Lee probably has about four or five starts left to make this year, and the chances are very good that his MLB-leading 2.32 ERA will rise a bit in that span. Additionally, and even more likely, his two meager losses are bound to have some company by October.

He'll likely have two starts against the Royals, one against the Twins, one against Boston, and perhaps one against the White Sox on the last day of the season, which will likely be cut short unless the game turns out to be a statistically meaningful one.

The chances of him keeping this kind of thing up for another month seem pretty minute. For one thing, anyone who has had 20 wins as of Sept. 2 (in the last 15 years) has not fared as well after Labor Day.

Pitcher    Year    As of 9/1    After Sept 1st
McDowell   1993   21-7, 3.31    1-3, 3.74
Clemens    1997   20-4, 1.73    1-3, 3.57
Schilling  2002   21-5, 2.77    2-2, 5.87
Smoltz     1996   20-7, 2.85    4-1, 3.50

A few caveats and explanations:

1) Only four pitchers have had 20 wins as of Sept. 1 in the last 15 years. This is an extremely small sample-size. I picked 1993 because most people seem to agree that the run-scoring environment across MLB underwent a big change that year.

If you go back further, you get some really remarkable September campaigns by certain players, like Bob Welch in 1990 and Doc Gooden in 1985, but it was kind of a different league back then, and I didn't want to muddy the waters with, you know, facts.

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