I don’t think I’m going to have time to write up the rest of my picks in as much detail as I did with the ACC and Big 12. Instead, I am just going to reveal them all now. I will also be showing you how my selections fit with the expected outcomes based on ten years of BCS games and my opinion of the upcoming season.
Before we dig into the picks, I have some numbers to share with you. Numbers aren’t as juicy as picks are, of course, but they form the basis of these predictions.
The first bit is about BCS at-large teams. Since 1998, the BCS has had 24 at-large teams. I’m fudging a bit; the BCS Busters (Utah, Boise State, and Hawaii) had auto-bids, as did Nebraska and Oklahoma when they made the championship game without winning the Big 12. Just humor me for now.
Of those 24 at-larges, 20 have had the opportunity to return to the BCS the next season. Six of them were able to do it; fourteen were not. Since only 30 percent of BCS at-larges return the next season and we had four at-larges in 2007, we should expect that only one of them comes back this season.
The other important set of stats comes from my analysis of the preseason consensus. Based on that, we would expect there to be four BCS teams that were picked to be first in their division/conference, two that were picked second, one that was picked third, and one from all the rest.
That only adds up to eight teams though, and there are ten BCS spots. I have already said that I think this is a “season of titans” as it were, so to fill in those final two spots I am using two more teams that were picked to finish in first place. That makes a total of six teams picked first in their division/conference in the BCS. Also to fit in with that theory, I expect there to be no BCS Busters in 2008.
The preseason consensus, which appears to be about final at this point, can be found here.
One final point to keep in mind is that only one team (the 2003 Oklahoma Sooners who got a championship game automatic bid) has lost its conference championship game and still made the BCS.
Onto the picks!
ACC
Championship Game: Clemson over Virginia Tech
At-Large: None
BIG 12
Championship Game: Oklahoma over Missouri
At-Large: Texas Tech
BIG EAST
Champion: West Virginia (over second-place Cincinnati, third-place USF)
At-Large: None
I see West Virginia this
42 comments Last one added 10 months ago — Leave a Comment
Kristofer Green 10 months ago
I hope the numbers (and you) are right. Great article.
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Nick Martin 10 months ago
Agree with most, except for Michigan State's apperance in the Rose Bowl.
There is always a lot of anticipation but it seems like the bottom always falls out of them.
Much like UCLA in the Pac-10 to make a comparison
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
True, but I like Mark Dantonio. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. Penn State I suppose could also work for the lower-than-third requirement since the Lions were picked fourth in the conference. I don't know, figured I needed one surprise. Thanks for reading.
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BabyTate 10 months ago
Let's see, I picked Ohio State and Oklahoma to be in the Title game last week so naturally I believe you have an excellent choice there.
I do hope Texas Tech can get into the Fiesta Bowl as I'm a big fan of the Red Raiders and Coach Leach. I had given that matchup a great deal of thought before deciding against it.
You may not realize the eternally bad feeling between Clemson and Georgia, only a 1 hour drive from each other. Frank Howard always called the SEC "the knucklehead league" because he proposed that the only reason you would go to one of those schools is if you couldn't get in an ACC school like Clemson. Ted Billingsley, who used to run "Tiger Talk" in Florence, stated when Charley Pell left Clemson for Florida in '78 that it was because Pell had trouble getting his players into Clemson and felt SEC Fla would be more forgiving of the "Pell-Types". I once saw a Georgia man hit another man in the head with a Nehi bottle because he had on an Orange shirt. If it is Georgia vs Clemson in the Orange Bowl, it could be a scary setting with the fans of those 2 teams being that far from home and not worried about the consequences in local media.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
I didn't realize the bad blood between them until I moved up here to Charlotte. Being right on the border with South Carolina, there's a lot of Clemson fans who call in to the local sports radio. It certainly gave me a better appreciation of one of the less-known rivalries.
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Tim Pollock 10 months ago
Kind of funny that Richt's son, a qb, just committed to play for Clemson.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
True, but Richt and the Bowdens are all friends so that kind of explains it.
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Mitch at sportschatplace.com 10 months ago
David, The concept of a Florida-West Virginia game is intriguing and probably really would showcase the best two QB's (at least if you went by 2007). It will be very tough to get two SEC East teams into the BCS. You'll have the whole who beat who thing and everything else going on as well as the usual Rodney Dangerfield shtick about respect coming from Bellotti and Co. To be honest they may even have a point if they win some of those OOC games. Of course this article is about your picks but I see the Dawgs possibly finishing a little lower in the pack then they are projected.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
True, though both Tennessee and Florida made the BCS in 1998 so it's happened before. THe Big 12 has put two teams from the same division in the BCS twice as well. The main thing I was looking at there is that no preseason #1 team in the BCS era has finished the season ranked lower than #8.
If Georgia is in the top 10 (which it will be with one or two losses given the schedule), the Orange Bowl would take them in a heartbeat over the SEC West teams because they're closer. If Clemson is there, than it add even more to it given the relatively large amount of bad blood between them.
LSU fans are great travelers so they're a possibility too, but I think the proximity will win out, especially if gas and airfare are still really high. A nervous bowl committee will take the closest big school it can.
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Mitch at sportschatplace.com 10 months ago
David, another good article, fortunately for all of us we have about 4 months to figure it all out...
This could be a season for the ages.
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Randy Owens 10 months ago
If Oklahoma plays Ohio State in the BCS Cnahmpionshp, then I quit watching college football. The game has become more about scheduling rather than overall strength.
Ohio State would not win the SEC (or the Big 12 or ACC for that matter). Neither would Oklahoma. Yet both teams keep getting the opportunity every year to play for the BCS Championship simply because their competition is weaker.
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sizzle 10 months ago
If you quit watching college football, does that mean you'll quit commenting on college football too? If anything, I'd love to see that match-up just so we're saved from more comments like this.
Just because the SEC has had a few great teams in the last few years and the two best teams of the last two years doesn't mean that every non-SEC team should be doubted for all eternity. You speculate that neither the Buckeyes or Sooners would win the SEC. Well, 11 of the 12 SEC teams won't win the conference in any given year. Meanwhile, teams from other conferences have beaten the SEC runner-up, at large, or other powerhouse on multiple occasions in the last few years(most memorably, WVU over Georgia, Michigan over FL) after the teams are all healed up after brutal seasons where a tough schedule has the most impact. If you can take a break from your SEC chest thumping and wrap your head around that nuance, you might understand that while the SEC does have depth and is currently the best conference, that doesn't automatically mean they have the best teams.
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Doug Kraus 10 months ago
Go ahead and quit. If you don't have the ability to watch and enjoy football from around the country, not just the SEC then maybe you should try another sport. Cricket is pretty awesome. I am pretty sick of hearing how great the SEC is and that all the other conferences pale in comparison. I'll watch a great game no matter what the teams or the conferences.
How about if the Big Ten comes down and plays early season games in the sweltering heat and humidity of the SEC, then the SEC comes up north at the end of the season to play in zero degree snowy conditions? I'd love to see a few of those match ups every year no matter what the outcome.
Open your mind brother and let the love in.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
Ohio State has a road game at USC, and it must go on the road in-conference to Illinois (a team that beat them in 2007), Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Getting a win from Camp Randall is a lot tougher than you clearly think it is, and the fact that Wisconsin plays to the level of its opponent means the Badgers will give them a real tough game.
If you think the Big 12 is not that tough, I'd ask you to take a close look at it. It's going to be the second-best conference in 2008, and it has the best set of quarterbacks of any conference by far.
Ohio State and Oklahoma are loaded with talent. The amount of draft picks from them next spring will be remarkable. They can really play, and if you're going to dismiss them and not watch any of their games this fall, you're really going to miss out.
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Jeremy 10 months ago
You should remember that Nebraska did not even win its division when they got smoked in the Rose Bowl
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Jimson Cuenta 10 months ago
Oh, I remember that one... I believe that was in 2001, lolz :)
Anyways, I cannot believe that you forgot to mention that... the author LEFT OUT Utah, as the BCS Buster, lol :)
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Will Shelton 10 months ago
More and more it seems the people who really do research and look at all the factors are coming up with that Oklahoma-Ohio State pick...and I agree, I think that's easily the most-likely matchup down in Miami. Good stuff as always.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
Thanks. I've been incubating these picks in my mind for a while, waiting for practice reports of surprise players, injuries, and the like before putting them out. I somewhat surprised to see how many OSU-OU title game picks came out in the meantime.
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Doug Kraus 10 months ago
David, Great article - thanks! Sure, I love seeing the Buckeyes picked to win it all, but all of your picks are as reasonable as I've seen on B/R so far. Michigan State in the Rose bowl isn't as crazy as it sounds on the surface. If Wisconsin finds a way to screw it up (as they sadly almost always do) M St could easily be there to grab the number two spot in the Big Ten. I also see the same FL and GA outcome from the SEC.
The Big East is a toss up for me. I wouldn't be even odds on WVU, Pitt or Cinci. That one is too close to call.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
The Michigan State and Arizona State picks are the ones I'm most concerned about, but sometimes you have to go out on a limb. I think that Dennis Erickson being the coach at ASU will make coaches and writers give the Sun Devils the benefit of the doubt, and I would imagine the Fiesta Bowl would love to have the hometown boys if possible.
Thanks for reading.
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David Austin 10 months ago
"If Oklahoma plays Ohio State in the BCS Cnahmpionshp, then I quit watching college football. The game has become more about scheduling rather than overall strength.
Ohio State would not win the SEC (or the Big 12 or ACC for that matter). Neither would Oklahoma. Yet both teams keep getting the opportunity every year to play for the BCS Championship simply because their competition is weaker."
Thank you for posting this. I agree 100%. I have seen the talking heads on various sports channels stating that they didn't vote Georgia #1 because they play a brutal schedule. That makes absolutely no sense. I thought polls were supposed to reflect the best teams, not the easiest schedule. Hell, why don't we all just join CUSA or the MAC and go straight to #1 every year? If this keeps up, everyone should just get ready to see Boise State as their national champion, after playing this schedule:
Idaho St.
Bowling Green
at Oregon
Louisiana Tech
at Southern Miss.
Hawaii
San Jose St.
New Mexico St.
Utah State
Idaho
Nevada
Fresno State
Granted Boise beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, but does anyone think they could have beaten 8 or 9 teams from power conferences that year? Nope. No way. Yet, plenty of other teams do just that and are rewarded the Peach Bowl because they lost to LSU and Florida or Texas and Nebraska. Ditto on BYU and their schedule. ESPN seems to think that the Cougars could be the BCS buster, yet they play one of the softest schedules in the nation. They tout their 2 Pac-10 foes, but honestly, we're talking about a VERY down Washington team and UCLA with a brand new coaching staff that is working with 6-7 talent from 2007. If BYU gets a BCS bid then you can bet that an actual deserving team will end up in the Motor City Bowl.
And while we're on the subject, Big-10 and Pac-10, it's time to man up, add a team and play a title game like the other big boys. Eventually the powers that be will grow tired of rewarding you a BCS game while you sit at home and watch the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 play a real game. It really is a shame when your own commissioners admit that they don't want a title game because it might affect your easy route to the title game.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
Thanks, but I really don't want the discussion to get into conference politics. Let's save that for an article about conference politics.
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Ryan J. 10 months ago
Seriously, Ohio State didn't join the Big Ten in the past few years just so it could have an easier path to the National Championship Game. No, the Buckeyes have been in the Big Ten for almost a century. And it's not their fault that the conference is currently in a down period. There was a time when the Big Ten was the toughest conference in the nation, but these things move in cycles. Just like the SEC won't be the toughest conference forever.
Also, no one is forcing the Big XII, the SEC, and the ACC to have conference title games. But those conferences choose to have those games (despite the risks they pose to their potential national title contenders) because of the untold millions of dollars in revenue that those games bring in. The advent of the conference title game is a relatively new thing. The Big Ten has been deciding its champion by using a round-robin format for well over 100 years. There's no reason that the Big Ten should change its format because some fans of teams in other conferences doesn't like the way it does things.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
Thanks, but I really don't want the discussion to get into conference politics. Let's save that for an article about conference politics. And this is not an article about conference politics.
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Rusi Patel 10 months ago
As a UGA fan I will say I have no problems with this analysis. I think UGA will win the East, just as you as a Florida fan thinks UF will. But both are very good teams and only the games will be able to decide that issue.
That being said, if UGA were to get an at large Orange Bowl bid against Clemson, that would be one EXCELLENT BCS game. I have wished for many years that, god love 'em, but we traded Vandy (which is clearly an ACC molded kind of school for Clemson, which is clearly an SEC molded school).....
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
The ACC would never do it, but that is a trade that makes sense. Kind of like the ACC and Big East trading BC and USF for geographic reasons.
A Georgia-Clemson Orange Bowl would be a really fierce game, and I think the folks down in Miami are well-versed enough on the history of southern football to make it happen if possible. It won't happen, but just imagine a Georgia-Clemson national title game...
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Ryan J. 10 months ago
Guys, Vanderbilt serves an important purpose in the SEC. They serve the same purpose that Baylor serves to the Big XII and Northwestern serves to the Big Ten. There is a law that prevents people from using the freedom of information act against conferences with at least one private school member.
Also, David, BC left the Big East and the ACC accepted them with open arms. I don't think either would give that up for, of all schools, USF.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
I am well aware of the recent conference realignments. I chose a potential BC-USF swap as an analogy intentionally because I know it will not happen, just as a Clemson-Vandy swap will not happen.
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Ryan Nelson 10 months ago
Go Buckeyes. I couldn't stand to watch them lose so bad the past few years. This year they have a chance.
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Robert 10 months ago
Wow, Michigan State in the Rose Bowl, pretty bold. No Illinois? No Badgers? No Penn State? No Meechagin? Interesting.
I agree, surprisingly. Mendenhall is a huge loss. Bielema's teams just don't seem to have the fire that Barry Alverez's squad used to come with...however, MSU never seems to pull out a win in a big game, so I'm somewhat skeptical. But I understand.
I think USC will lose 2 or 3 games, maybe 4. The steady QB play that has made them so dominant has dropped off with Sanchez.
Other than that, I can see your logic everywhere else. Good read.
Go Dawgs! I can't wait for the WLOCP, that's going to be one for the ages.
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Justin Goar 10 months ago
out of everyone who has picked games for the upcoming season i think this is the most dead on scenario (well that and i have the same NC game as you do).
my only question is mich st. while it wouldn't surprise me to see them there with their schedule, i would expect PSU, wisc, or the illini before the spartans.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
Well, great minds think alike.
I'm just not sold on Jay Paterno as a fully competent offensive coordinator, and anytime someone gives an offense a name before it ever makes the field I get really skeptical. I also am dubious of Juice Williams being able to win nine or ten games without Rashard Mendenhall, but we'll see.
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GeorgiaDawg 10 months ago
David picking the Gators to beat UGA this year? Shocking!!
I just don't see it. The "dance" is not enough motive for a team to rise up and beat a hated rival. Georgia showed much more against FLorida last year than they have in the past 15... the attitude has changed. UGA brings back most of the same cast of characters.... Florida's D may get better... but how could it not. Getting drilled by Michigan in a bowl game showed how bad you guys really were.
Some good picks. But you missed one. Georgia will beat Florida again. ;-)
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
"GeorgiaDawg" picking the Bulldogs to beat UF this year? Shocking!!
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David Kuykendall 10 months ago
overall good article but im not sure we will se osu in the bcs game for 3 reasons, 1 they play usc and usc can outlast anyone who dosent blow them away in the first half,2 penn state will be a very good football team this year and joe pa will be in top form for this years game,3 osu will not make it in unless they are undefeated the voters will not want another repeat. another quick question and statement do you have wvu going undefeated because if you do i would be shocked if they dont play in the bcs title game.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
I don't think WVU has the team to go undefeated; the Mountaineers had a better team last season and still came out with two losses. There are enough dangerous teams in the Big East (USF, Cincinnati, Pitt, maybe Rutgers) to keep them from running the table, and Auburn could definitely beat them too. I think it should go without saying, though, that an undefeated team from a BCS conference will be in excellent shape in regards to the national title game.
I like Ohio State to run the table because there isn't another team as deep and as good top to bottom in the country. With preseason picks, that's about all you can go on: what everyone should do. Ohio State should beat anyone it plays, so they're my title pick.
The big Achilles heel for the Buckeyes the past couple years has been defending a spread scheme, especially with a mobile quarterback. However with Pryor in house to practice against, the defense should get some of those issues ironed out.
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Gray Ghost 10 months ago
I really think Stafford is going to have an excellent year this year. He has all the tools, and there are some who predict he could be the #1 pick ithe draft if he leaves after this year. That obviously depends on how well he does as the QB of the top ranked team in the nation.
You may be right about the Buckeyes, but I don't see it. They are deep, but in players who got blown out in the big dance. I am sure they have improved, but to the point of winning it all? We'll see.
Good article, as always.
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Michael Inglis 10 months ago
Why did you pick Auburn? Was it because they have an easier schedule then Bama and LSU.
I don't think Michigan State will get an at large bid but they could if Ohio State plays for the NC.
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David Wunderlich 10 months ago
The defense shouldn't fall off because Rhoads is an adequate replacement for Muschamp. Adding Tony Franklin will give them a much better offense, and it was offense that by and large held them back last season. Their head start in the bowl game looked good.
LSU has the defense to win the division, but I'm more concerned about their QB situation than I am about Auburn's. Bama doesn't have the depth or experience yet to be able to pass up LSU or Auburn.
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Justin Hokanson 10 months ago
Good stuff David.
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Gil HHH 10 months ago
This what makes the start of the CFB season great because everybody's team is #1 until they lose. I thought I was the only one thinking that MSU might be the surprised team of the year but I don't see them as a BCS team. ASU is overrated and if they make it to a BCS bowl Coach E deserves an immediate raise and bonus. TT will not qualify for a BCS game because they are very overrated and both OU and UT will make the case.
The national title darkhorse is Auburn because they play the top SEC teams tough but the game against WVU might be their first and possible only lost of the season.
I don't want to beat the same horse to death but I want to people to write this down on anything worthless (e.g toilet paper before using it) but USC is going to beat OSU by at least 14 points. USC feeds off drop back passers and OSU can't pass the ball and Beanie Wells will not rush for more than 100 yards. If I am wrong I will gladly praise OSU for its win.
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David Kuykendall 10 months ago
???? are you serious???? osu is in the worst this year then the previous 2. also while you have an opinion i dont see how you can say wvu had a better team last year we have a way deeper depth chart and possibly the best rb to ever come out of md. anotgher thing is while you can say the big east does have tough teams most will agree that wvu is most likely to come out undefeated so im gonna give you my title pick in OU WVU and i think WVU will win it but we will see
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