How Rookie Running Backs Affect a Team's Leading Rusher

Darren McFadden. Jonathan Stewart. Felix Jones. Rashard Mendenhall. Chris Johnson.

All were drafted as the top running backs.

All were drafted in the first round.

How will they affect the running back for whom they will take over, or the running back with whom they will split carries? It's a simple question.

But a not-so-simple answer.

When drafting your fantasy team, you must know all the depth-chart controversies, how much playing time a rookie will get, how they will affect the player from which they are taking playing time, injury situations, and the fifth running-back for the Denver Broncos who, come Week One, will be the No. 1 running back for his team. (Okay, the last one was fake. But it will happen.)

Depth charts and injury reports are in the news every day of the week. You can easily find them on fantasy-football websites; but what those websites don't inform you of are the rookie situations.

Like any other fantasy owner, I wanted to find out how Marion Barber, Willie Parker, et la would be affected by their first-round companions.

To find out the answer, I checked every team from 1990 that drafted a running back in round one that also had the same leading rusher from the year before the team drafted the rookie to the year after. (The leading rusher in the year after was the leading rusher on the team excluding the rookie, of course.)

Here are the stats:

RB stats with rookie RB

		Year before pick						Year after pick
Year	Team	Leading Runner	Rush Att.	Rush Yds.	Rush TDs	Fantasy Pts	RB Drafted	Leading Runner	Rush Att.	Rush Yds.	Rush TDs.	Fantasy Pts
2006	Vikings	C.Taylor	303	1216	6	158	A.Peterson	C.Taylor	157	844	7	126
2005	Patriots	C.Dillon	209	733	12	145	L.Maroney	C.Dillon	199	812	13	159
2005	Panthers	D.Foster	205	879	2	100	D.Williams	D.Foster	227	897	3	108
2004	Bears	T.Jones	240	948	7	137	C.Benson	T.Jones	314	1335	9	188
2004	Buccaneers	M.Pittman	219	926	7	135	C.Williams	M.Pittman	70	436	1	50
2003	Rams	M.Faulk	209	818	10	142	S.Jackson	M.Faulk	195	774	3	95
2003	Bengals	R.Johnson*	215	957	9	150	C.Perry	R.Johnson	337	1458	12	218
2002	Bills	T.Henry*	325	1438	13	222	W.McGahee	T.Henry	94	326	0	33
2002	Chiefs	P.Holmes	313	1615	21	288	L.Johnson	P.Holmes	320	1420	27	304
2000	Chargers	T.Fletcher	116	384	3	56	L.Tomlinson	T.Fletcher	29	107	0	11
2000	Saints	R.Williams	248	1000	8	148	D.McAllister	R.Williams	313	1245	6	161
1999	Seahawks	R.Watters	325	1210	5	151	S.Alexander	R.Watters	278	1242	7	166
1999	Rams	M.Faulk*	253	1381	7	180	T.Candidate	M.Faulk	260	1382	12	210
1998	Saints	L.Smith	138	457	1	52	R.Williams	L.Smith	60	205	0	21
1997	Dolphins	K.Abul-Jabbar	283	892	15	179	J.Avery	K.Abdul-Jabbar	270	960	6	132
1996	Bills	T.Thomas	281	1033	8	151	A.Smith	T.Thomas	154	643	1	70
1995	Oilers/Titans	R.Thomas	251	947	5	125	E.George	R.Thomas	49	151	1	21
1994	Giants	R.Hampton	327	1075	6	144	T.Wheatley	R.Hampton	306	1182	10	178
1994	Raiders	H.Williams	282	983	4	122	N.Kaufman	H.Williams	255	1114	9	165
1993	Colts	R.Potts	179	711	0	71	M.Faulk	R.Potts	77	336	1	40
1993	Chiefs	M.Allen	206	764	12	148	G.Hill	M.Allen	189	709	7	113
1992	Rams	C.Gary	279	1125	7	155	J.Bettis	C.Gary	79	293	1	35
1991	Falcons	S.Broussard	99	449	4	69	T.Smith	S.Broussard	84	363	1	42
1990	Patriots	J.Stephens	212	808	2	93	L.Russell	J.Stephens	63	163	2	28

Fantasy points are calculated by dividing rushing yards by 10, multiplying rushing touchdowns by six, and adding the two totals.

Players with a * next to their name indicate that their "Year after" stats are from two years after the rookie was drafted, due to an injury suffered by the rookie that led to three-or-less carries in his first year.

18 of the 24 backs, or  75 percent, had their attempts go down after the rookie was drafted. On average, attempts went down by 56.

14 of the 24 backs, or 58 percent, had their rushing yards go down. On average, yards decreased by 181.

12 of the 23 backs, or 52 percent, whose touchdowns differed from each year declined in TD production. Touchdowns went down by one and a half each year, despite almost half of them improving in that stat.

14 of the 24 backs had fantasy points decrease. On average, fantasy points decreased by 27 points.

By taking away the biggest improvement and the biggest decline (Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry, respectively), we can have a better view of the average stats.

With those two backs out of the picture, attempts stayed the same, with an average loss of 56. Yards went down only 170 per year, 11 less than with those two included; touchdowns decreased by 1.1, or 0.4 less than before; and fantasy points went down only 23 points, or four less.

But there's one more caveat to look at: running backs whose attempts went down (or up) by 32 or less, or two a game. Those stats can be found in the following table.

		Year before pick						Year after pick
Year	Team	Leading Runner	Rush Att.	Rush Yds.	Rush TDs	Fantasy Pts	RB Drafted	Leading Runner	Rush Att.	Rush Yds.	Rush TDs.	Fantasy Pts
2005	Patriots	C.Dillon	209	733	12	145	L.Maroney	C.Dillon	199	812	13	159
2005	Panthers	D.Foster	205	879	2	100	D.Williams	D.Foster	227	897	3	108
2003	Rams	M.Faulk	209	818	10	142	S.Jackson	M.Faulk	195	774	3	95
2002	Chiefs	P.Holmes	313	1615	21	288	L.Johnson	P.Holmes	320	1420	27	304
1999	Rams	M.Faulk*	253	1381	7	180	T.Candidate	M.Faulk	260	1382	12	210
1997	Dolphins	K.Abul-Jabbar	283	892	15	179	J.Avery	K.Abdul-Jabbar	270	960	6	132
1994	Giants	R.Hampton	327	1075	6	144	T.Wheatley	R.Hampton	306	1182	10	178
1994	Raiders	H.Williams	282	983	4	122	N.Kaufman	H.Williams	255	1114	9	165
1993	Chiefs	M.Allen	206	764	12	148	G.Hill	M.Allen	189	709	7	113
1991	Falcons	S.Broussard	99	449	4	69	T.Smith	S.Broussard	84	363	1	42

Those 10 running backs lost eight yards, a fifth of a touchdown, and less than a fantasy point on average.

The second table is what I believe will happen to Marion Barber, Willie Parker, and LenDale White. I believe that the latter two will lose about one or two carries a game, and the former, I believe, will have his carries stay relatively the same.

The first table is what I expect to happen to Justin Fargas—who's now splitting with Darren McFadden—and DeAngelo Williams—who's now splitting with Jonathan Stewart.

In the end, it's your call as to whom will improve or decline with a first-round running back now in the fold. But don't go drafting Marion Barber in the top five just because Julius Jones is gone.