There are a handful of ‘unwritten rules’ in college football betting. At or near the top of the list is this simple mantra for Boise State games: don’t bet against the Broncos on the blue turf. The long term numbers clearly show the wisdom of that strategy. Boise is 63-2 SU at home since 2000 while going 38-17 as a home favorite during that span. A ten year track record that has blindly produced 69 percent winners is worthy of respect.
Boise has two BCS Bowl wins in the last four years, beating Oklahoma and TCU in a pair of Fiesta Bowls. This year, the Broncos sights are even higher; looking to crash the BCS Championship Game party for the first time. After an opening day win against Virginia Tech was devalued by the Hokies home loss to James Madison the following week, margins of victory are clearly important for the Broncos in their effort to impress the pollsters. The Broncos beat Wyoming 51-6 last week, continuing to pile on points in the midst of a blowout after halftime.
Boise has 20 starters back from a team that went 14-0 last year. QB Kellen Moore and his top receiving targets, Titus Young and Austin Pettis have three years worth of chemistry together. Running backs Doug Martin, DJ Harper and Jeremy Avery run behind one of the best offensive lines in college football. Defensively, the Broncos are loaded with veteran talent; a unit that has held their opponents under 350 yards per game in each of the last four years.
The Beavers have struggled to hang tough in early season road games against power foes. Yes, they got a pointspread cover at TCU in their opener, but they were outgained by more than 200 yards against the Horned Frogs. They failed to cover the spread in their road opener in each of the previous five years, with ugly losses like these: 63-27 at Louisville, 34-3 at Cinci, 36-28 at Stanford and a 42-14 loss right here in Boise, allowing six unanswered touchdowns after taking a 14-0 early lead.
Oregon State has decent skill position talent with Jacquizz Rodgers running the ball and his brother James catching it. But sophomore QB Ryan Katz is on the green side, making only his third career start here. Katz has completed only 47 percent of his passes for 301 yards in his first two games. And the Beavers defense was shredded by Louisville last week, a troubling sign for any team as they travel to one of the most hostile environments on the college football landscape. 2* Take Boise State.
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