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NCAA Football Projections Week1: Scores From Every Game
Jake WestrichAug 12, 2008
Week 1 NCAA Projections
Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 11th, 2008
We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).
Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.
Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.
Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).
Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.
The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.
Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.
Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.
The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.
Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.
Today we preview Week 1.
Game of the Week: #13 Alabama 19 @ #7 Clemson 30
Two top 15 teams in our pre-season Power Rankings clash in a great early season battle that may help determine which of these teams is legit (though we obviously like each of them). Both squads are talented, but Clemson has the clear edge in experience and it helps them get past the Crimson Tide 65.6% of the time in Week 1.
Week 1 Scores for Every FBS Game
| Charleston Southern @ Miami (FL) | 95 | 5-32 |
| Delaware @ Maryland | 95 | 5-40 |
| Jacksonville State @ GA Tech | 95 | 4-36 |
| James Madison @ Duke | 95 | 4-39 |
| McNeese State @ North Carolina | 95 | 5-41 |
| Eastern Kentucky @ Cincinnati | 95 | 5-41 |
| Hofstra @ Connecticut | 95 | 4-40 |
| Tennessee-Martin @ South Florida | 95 | 4-46 |
| Villanova @ W. Virginia | 95 | 3-58 |
| Akron @ Wisconsin | 95 | 8-35 |
| Coastal Carolina @ Penn State | 95 | 4-44 |
| Maine @ Iowa | 95 | 4-36 |
| Youngstown State @ Ohio State | 95 | 3-59 |
| Chattanooga @ Oklahoma | 95 | 3-60 |
| Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech | 95 | 4-47 |
| Fla. Int. @ Kansas | 95 | 8-44 |
| South Dakota State @ Iowa State | 95 | 6-30 |
| Illinois State @ Marshall | 95 | 6-33 |
| South Carolina State @ UCF | 95 | 4-36 |
| Southern University @ Houston | 95 | 5-40 |
| Towson @ Navy | 95 | 6-37 |
| Eastern Illinois @ C. Michigan | 95 | 5-41 |
| Indiana State @ E. Michigan | 95 | 6-31 |
| Northeastern @ Ball State | 95 | 7-41 |
| Northern Iowa @ Brigham Young | 95 | 3-48 |
| Southern Utah @ Air Force | 95 | 4-40 |
| Northern Arizona @ Arizona St. | 95 | 4-44 |
| Appalachian State @ LSU | 95 | 3-57 |
| Georgia Southern @ Georgia | 95 | 3-63 |
| Hawaii @ Florida | 95 | 13-32 |
| Western Illinois @ Arkansas | 95 | 5-36 |
| California-Davis @ San Jose State | 95 | 5-26 |
| Grambling State @ Nevada | 95 | 5-48 |
| Idaho State @ Boise State | 95 | 4-39 |
| Western Kentucky @ Indiana | 95 | 12-39 |
| North Texas @ Kansas State | 95 | 17-34 |
| LA-Monroe @ Auburn | 95 | 9-31 |
| NC St. @ S. Carolina | 95 | 8-34 |
| Cal Poly @ San Diego State | 93.4 | 7-24 |
| Idaho @ Arizona | 90.2 | 16-38 |
| Florida Atlantic @ Texas | 88.5 | 22-33 |
| Bowling Green @ Pittsburgh | 86.9 | 15-34 |
| Utah State @ UNLV | 86.9 | 16-31 |
| Memphis @ Mississippi | 85.2 | 13-32 |
| Vanderbilt @ Miami (OH) | 80.3 | 10-26 |
| Arkansas St. @ Texas A&M | 77 | 24-36 |
| Northern Illinois @ Minn. | 75.4 | 24-36 |
| W. Michigan @ Nebraska | 75.4 | 18-32 |
| LA-Laf @ S. Miss | 72.1 | 21-33 |
| Washington @ Oregon | 72.1 | 22-35 |
| Syracuse @ Northwestern | 68.9 | 20-33 |
| Alabama @ Clemson | 65.6 | 19-30 |
| Illinois @ Missouri | 63.9 | 29-38 |
| Kentucky @ Louisville | 62.3 | 25-32 |
| Ohio @ Wyoming | 60.7 | 13-25 |
| Troy @ Mid Tenn | 60.7 | 12-23 |
| Michigan State @ California | 55.7 | 25-33 |
| SMU @ Rice | 52.5 | 26-32 |
| UTEP @ Buffalo | 45.9 | 24-26 |
| Utah @ Michigan | 44.3 | 25-23 |
| Fresno State @ Rutgers | 36.1 | 36-31 |
| TCU @ New Mexico | 34.4 | 21-17 |
| Oklahoma State @ Washington St. | 27.9 | 37-28 |
| Virginia Tech @ East Carolina | 26.2 | 26-19 |
| Tennessee @ UCLA | 23 | 31-26 |
| Colorado @ Colorado St. | 21.3 | 30-20 |
| Tulsa @ UAB | 16.4 | 33-21 |
| Boston College @ Kent St. | 14.8 | 27-16 |
| Mississippi State @ Louisiana Tech | 13.1 | 25-10 |
| Oregon State @ Stanford | 9.8 | 24-13 |
| Temple @ Army | 6.6 | 25-9 |
| WF @ Baylor | 3.3 | 32-14 |
| USC @ Virginia | 1 | 36-8 |
Updated FBS Standings through Week 1
| Atlantic Coast | Boston College | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Atlantic Coast | Clemson | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Atlantic Coast | Duke | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Atlantic Coast | GA Tech | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Atlantic Coast | Maryland | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Atlantic Coast | Miami (FL) | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Atlantic Coast | North Carolina | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Atlantic Coast | Virginia Tech | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Atlantic Coast | WF | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Atlantic Coast | NC St. | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Atlantic Coast | Virginia | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Big East | Cincinnati | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big East | Connecticut | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big East | Louisville | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big East | Pittsburgh | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big East | South Florida | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big East | W. Virginia | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big East | Rutgers | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Big East | Syracuse | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Big Ten | Indiana | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Ten | Iowa | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Ten | Minn. | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Ten | Northwestern | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Ten | Ohio State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Ten | Penn State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Ten | Wisconsin | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Ten | Illinois | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Big Ten | Michigan State | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Big Ten | Michigan | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Big Twelve | Colorado | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Iowa State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Kansas State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Kansas | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Missouri | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Nebraska | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Oklahoma State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Oklahoma | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Texas A&M | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Texas Tech | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Texas | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Twelve | Baylor | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Conference USA | Houston | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Conference USA | Marshall | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Conference USA | Rice | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Conference USA | S. Miss | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Conference USA | Tulsa | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Conference USA | UCF | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Conference USA | UTEP | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Conference USA | East Carolina | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Conference USA | Memphis | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Conference USA | SMU | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Conference USA | UAB | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Independents (FBS) | Navy | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Independents (FBS) | Army | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Independents (FBS) | Western Kentucky | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Mid-American | Ball State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mid-American | C. Michigan | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mid-American | E. Michigan | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mid-American | Miami (OH) | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mid-American | Temple | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mid-American | Akron | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Mid-American | Bowling Green | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Mid-American | Buffalo | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Mid-American | Kent St. | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Mid-American | Northern Illinois | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Mid-American | Ohio | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Mid-American | W. Michigan | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Mountain West | Air Force | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mountain West | Brigham Young | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mountain West | San Diego State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mountain West | TCU | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mountain West | UNLV | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mountain West | Utah | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mountain West | Wyoming | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Mountain West | Colorado St. | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Mountain West | New Mexico | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Pacific-10 | Arizona St. | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Pacific-10 | Arizona | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Pacific-10 | California | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Pacific-10 | Oregon State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Pacific-10 | Oregon | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Pacific-10 | USC | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Pacific-10 | Stanford | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Pacific-10 | UCLA | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Pacific-10 | Washington St. | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Pacific-10 | Washington | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Southeastern | Arkansas | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Southeastern | Auburn | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Southeastern | Florida | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Southeastern | Georgia | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Southeastern | LSU | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Southeastern | Mississippi State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Southeastern | Mississippi | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Southeastern | S. Carolina | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Southeastern | Tennessee | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Southeastern | Alabama | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Southeastern | Kentucky | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Southeastern | Vanderbilt | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Sun Belt | Mid Tenn | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Sun Belt | Arkansas St. | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Sun Belt | Fla. Int. | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Sun Belt | Florida Atlantic | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Sun Belt | LA-Laf | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Sun Belt | LA-Monroe | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Sun Belt | North Texas | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Sun Belt | Troy | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Western Athletic | Boise State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Western Athletic | Fresno State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Western Athletic | Nevada | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Western Athletic | San Jose State | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Western Athletic | Hawaii | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Western Athletic | Idaho | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Western Athletic | Louisiana Tech | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
| Western Athletic | Utah State | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
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