Top 10 Fantasy Football Handcuffs For 2008

Football ManiaxsAug 12, 2008

Derek Lofland, fantasy columnist at Fantasy Football Maniaxs

Most people reading this article are going to know what a handcuff is and they know it isn’t something used to haul you off to jail for being bad. If that is what you thought it is you are probably pretty new to fantasy football. Here is a brief explanation. Every year there are players that have a stud backup or are coming off a down year or injury.

You may be very confident that the team is going to do well running or passing, but you aren’t quite sure which player is going to end up putting up the bulk of the numbers. Therefore you draft the starter’s backup so that you are guaranteed the production from that particular team.

It is most commonly done with running backs. The reason for this are 1) running back is the highest scoring position, 2) running backs have a tendency to suffer injuries, 3) many teams are playing two running backs meaning they have multiple viable fantasy options, 4) the above three factors make the demand for healthy running backs much higher than the supply of starting running backs.

If you don’t think this is a big deal I remind you to revisit 2005. Priest Holmes was widely considered a first round back, but Larry Johnson was coming off a season where he tallied 581 yards and nine touchdowns. There were also concerns about Holmes’ durability. The people that handcuffed Holmes with Johnson enjoyed the following numbers from Weeks 9-16...

TOP NEWS

1,150 yards rushing, 255 receiving yards, and 14 total touchdowns. The people that didn’t handcuff were put in a terrible position of having their team decimated by an injury to a first round player and having another team benefit from that misfortune.   There are usually one to two handcuffs that end up saving people’s seasons every year.

This is the list of 10 players I came up with this season. They are listed in alphabetical order:

1) Ronnie Brown: I’m not sure if you are going to want one Dolphin, much less multiple Dolphins at the same position. Ronnie Brown was on pace for 2,264 rushing / receiving yards and 13.3 touchdowns before he went down with a season ending knee injury in his seventh game.   That injury really set back some fantasy teams. Coming back from a knee injury is always difficult for a running back. Ronnie Brown did play in the opening preseason game. He should be ready for the opener.

In case he isn’t ready or goes down at some point Ricky Williams, of all people, could become an attractive play. Once you’ve stopped laughing you’ll realize Ricky played okay in 2006 recording 743 yards rushing and six touchdowns splitting time with Brown. Jesse Chatman is no longer with the Dolphins, so Williams should be the second running back in Miami. If he can ever stay disciplined and healthy he could have a decent year. I did a draft this weekend where he went in the 15th round. There were 15 rounds in that draft. Williams is definitely a final round selection at best.

2) Frank Gore: Gore is always an injury concern. He had horrific knee injuries while playing at the University of Miami. He had a great 2006 season, which earned him top five fantasy billing by many people in 2007. Even though he had 1,102 yards rushing, 436 yards receiving, and six total touchdowns he was a little dinged up last year. The fear with drafting this guy is always that his knees could give out at any moment.

This year the 49ers have DeShaun Foster. Foster has recorded over 800 yards rushing the last three seasons, but isn’t a very big touchdown guy having only four touchdowns last year. Foster is the best backup the 49ers have had for Gore since his emergence as the 49er’s featured guy. The 49ers are implementing a Mike Martz run offense and Foster is a solid runner that can also catch. Given all the 49er offensive woes at quarterback and receiver, I tend to stay clear of their players anyway unless the value is too good to pass up. If I did end up drafting Frank Gore I would give serious thought to also draft DeShaun Foster in the very late rounds.

3) Marvin Harrison: He is the only non running back I have on the list. Peyton Manning is one of the most prolific passers in NFL history already ranking fourth on the NFL’s all time touchdown pass list, despite playing just 10 seasons. There have been many times where the third Colts receiver is a valuable option.   With Marvin Harrison coming off knee surgery, I think Anthony Gonzalez has even more value. There are some weeks where you could play him as a borderline third receiver. In the event Harrison goes down with an injury he could be a solid start. Harrison is going in the fifth to sixth round in a lot of drafts. Gonzalez makes sense in the 11th to 12th round.

4) Larry Johnson: Larry Johnson followed up two great seasons with a season that got off to a slow start and crashed due to injury. He is coming back from a broken foot and looked good in his first preseason game against the Bears. Johnson is going to get a lot of touches and could be forced to miss a game or two at some point in the season. Kolby Smith could be an attractive play in the right matchup. Rookie Jamaal Charles could emerge as the backup as well depending on how things shake out in camp.

I drafted Larry Johnson in the second round this weekend and did not handcuff him, because I thought someone else on this list was a better option. I would think you could pick Smith or Charles up off waivers in the event Johnson does go down. If it makes sense with your roster you could do a lot worse than to pick up Smith with your last pick.

5) Rudi Johnson: Rudi was a lock for 1,300-plus yards and 12 touchdowns from 2004-2006. That came to a crashing halt in 2007 where he was limited to 497 yards rushing and four total touchdowns due to injuries. He turns 29 in October and there is no way of knowing whether he is beginning the injury woes that plague backs of his age. He is a third round pick at this point.

To protect yourself you can select Kenny Watson. Watson had 763 yards and seven rushing touchdowns in five starts in 2007. Those numbers were fueled by a 130-yard rushing effort against the Jets where he tallied three rushing touchdowns, and a 130-yard night against the 49ers. Watson does have some name recognition, because of that Jets game last year. You can still probably get him in the 11th to 13th round without too many worries.

6) Maurice Jones-Drew: Jones-Drew has had a fast start to his career. In just two seasons he has recorded 1,709 yards rushing, 843 yards receiving, and 24 rushing / receiving touchdowns. He is a solid second round selection. What makes that even more amazing is who is playing in front of him. Fred Taylor has had 1,000 yards rushing five out of the last six years. He ranks 17th on the NFL career rushing chart with 10, 715 career rushing yards. Last season he appeared in his first Pro Bowl.

The truth is that they help each other in real life, but they hurt each other’s fantasy value. Jones-Drew would be a first round pick if it weren’t for Taylor. There are some weeks where both are going to be a viable start. If you want to protect yourself in the event of an injury you will need to grab Taylor in the sixth to eighth round.

7) Lawrence Maroney: Maroney has a couple problems. After being a terrific backup in 2006 he only started six games last year due to injury. He also seems to fall out of favor with The Hood from time to time. When he does play he is a very productive player. In December he had 104 yards and one touchdown against the Jets. He followed that up with 156 yards and one touchdown against the Dolphins. He then had 46 yards and two touchdowns in the season finale against the Giants. Maroney also had back to back 100 yard games in the AFC Divisional Round and AFC Championship Game and tallied a touchdown in each game of the 2007 NFL playoffs.   If he stays healthy, I would expect a big year.

If he doesn’t stay healthy the Patriots signed LaMont Jordan. Jordan was a productive backup early in his career for Curtis Martin and the Jets. His first year with Oakland resulted in 1,025 yards rushing, 563 yards receiving, and 11 total touchdowns. He then became a lost soul in the Art Shell reunion tour. He had 424 yards rushing and two touchdowns in September of the 2007 season before falling out of favor for the younger Justin Fargas. When McFadden was drafted Jordan was of no use to the Raiders.

If Maroney were to become injured this season LaMont Jordan could be an outstanding fantasy player. He is the more attractive handcuff I took this weekend over Smith from Kansas City. I think his potential in that Patriot offense is endless and all he needs is an opportunity to show his skills.

8) Willie Parker: Fast Willie Parker was a major fantasy disappointment in 2007. After posting 1,474 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in 2006 he had 1,316 rushing yards in 15 starts. That wasn’t the problem. His touchdown production dropped from 13 all the way down to two. Furthermore, he is coming back from a broken leg he suffered in December. Because Parker has only been in the NFL since 2004 and first came on the scene in 2005 people think of him as a young player. He turns 28 in November. Rashard Mendenhall is not the speed threat that a healthy Parker is in the open field. However, Mendenhall is more suited for the scoring opportunities in the red zone.

The Steelers will use both this year. Parker is probably a third to fourth round choice that will get the majority of the carries and yards. Mendenhall is going to get his chances near the end zone. Mendenhall is an excellent handcuff in the 11th to 12th rounds. In the event Parker does not respond well to his broken leg the Steelers are an excellent place for Mendenhall to excel. He has the potential to be like Barber was in Dallas the last few seasons who with fewer carries was a much superior fantasy option to the starter Julius Jones.

9) Adrian Peterson: Of all the players on this list, this is the one you have to draft his backup. If you draft Adrian Peterson and do not grab Chester Taylor in the seventh or eighth rounds you are setting yourself up for a major disaster. Peterson is a great player. I have him as the second best fantasy player in the draft this season. That said, he had an injury history at Oklahoma and was injured for a few weeks last year. He is a very physical runner that takes a beating.

The Vikings have the best running attack in football. Starting their starting running back is always a desirable thing. When Taylor filled in for Peterson last year, after the injury suffered in the Packer game, Taylor recorded 412 rushing yards and six touchdowns in just four games. When you have a back that is as highly rated as Peterson and a backup with as much talent as Taylor you have to execute the handcuff. If you don’t you could be setting yourself up for a major fall.

10) Clinton Portis: This was the number one handcuff from a year ago. It never really panned out. Portis led the NFL in carries with 325. Betts fell out of favor and had 335 yards rushing, 174 yards receiving, and two touchdowns.

There was speculation in 2007 that if Portis started out slow that Betts could ride his 1,154 yards rushing from 2006 into the starting lineup. That isn’t the concern this year. It’s Portis' job. What is concerning is that Portis is turning 28 in September and has already carried the ball an average of 285 times per season his first six seasons. That is a lot of miles on a running back early in his career. While Zorn will pass more than Gibbs did in 2007 Portis is still going to be the featured weapon.

Betts was worthy of an eighth to tenth round pick last year. If you do select Portis and have a roster spot for a handcuff Betts is a calculated gamble in the 14th or 15th round. While he doesn’t have nearly the upside he did a season ago, he will garner interest from other owners in the event of a Portis injury. Betts is a known commodity that could still help you out should Portis go down.

Here are five players I would not consider handcuffing:

1) Marion Barber - No one knows what to expect from Marion Barber in his first season as the full time starter. If it’s anything like the last two years fantasy owners will be very pleased. People are also excited about what Felix Jones brings to the table. Felix Jones may very well make the handcuff list in a couple years. For today, it makes no sense. Barber is a young back. He has only 477 carries over the last three seasons. Still, he has 29 career rushing touchdowns. He is going to be effective with teams having to worry about Terrell Owens and Jason Witten. Felix Jones is going to possibly be a return threat and will see some third down action and limited duty. Unless it’s a long touchdown run, I don’t expect a lot of scoring from Jones. Barber is going to get all the touchdowns and the bulk of the touches. Don’t be fooled into taking the young first rounder. Barber is going to be the guy in Dallas in 2008.

2) Steven Jackson - Brian Leonard had a horrible line to run behind once Jackson got hurt last season, granted. Still, 303 yards and zero touchdowns in seven starts is disappointing. Jackson is holding out for a raise and Leonard could see some time at the beginning of the season. I’d stay clear. I think there are plenty of other options out there that make more sense than Brian Leonard. Leonard should be a good role player with a future in this league. I just don’t think he has a future in fantasy football. While Jackson becomes more of a risk each day he stays out of camp for a new deal; that is the risk you take when you draft him. Taking Leonard is not much of an insurance policy.   Your handcuff has to be able to put up numbers and Leonard hasn’t proven he can do that.

3) Ryan Grant - Grant is enough of a question mark based on his nine game body of work that was accumulated taking handoffs from a future Hall of Fame QB. I’ve seen him taken in the first round. I would not take him until the middle of the second round. However, it really doesn’t pay to handcuff him. There are enough questions on the Packer offense with Grant in there. Jackson and Wynn had mixed levels of success their first year.   With Rodgers running the show the Packers offense will probably be a work in progress in 2008. Both Jackson and Wynn should be available on waivers should Grant stumble.

4) Chad Johnson - The talk was that Chad was going to be all about Chad this training camp and the results would be disastrous. People were speculating in the draft last year that either Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell could be viable fantasy options in 2008 as the number two receiver for Carson Palmer. That just doesn’t seem to be the case. All indications are that he is a little slowed from an ankle injury, but that he will be better than ever opening day. This is a situation that requires your constant observations and a potential waiver wire pickup, not a handcuff in the fantasy draft.

5) LaDanian Tomlinson - Along with Portis this was the other big handcuff of 2007. L.T. is coming back from a knee injury and is now 29-years old, so there is always an injury concern. However, there isn’t a Michael Turner waiting in the wings this year. Darren Sproles is a special teams player that has value catching the ball. He is not an every down back. Jacob Hester is a rookie that is not going to blow up in Year-1. He reminds me a lot of Brian Leonard from the Rams a year ago. That was a handcuff that a lot of people were championing that had 303 yards rushing and zero touchdowns last year. If Tomlinson gets hurt you aren’t going to need a handcuff. You will need a box of tissues. He is too good to not draft number one, but doesn’t have a worthy backup to bring fantasy production to your team.

That is how I see the handcuff situation in 2008. Remember, you aren’t ever going to cripple your team by taking a handcuff in the 14th or 15th round. You are going to have to be creative in how you protect your high draft pick investments. The only two players you should have to take before the 10th round are Chester and Fred Taylor. After that, most of these guys are late round picks.