AccuScore – Cincinnati vs. NC State Betting Prediction
By Jonathan Lee, AccuScore (September 16th 2010)
Both these teams are playing for respect, and getting a big win on Thursday with the spotlight on themselves will certainly help. Cincinnati is winning in 59% of simulations by 4.2 points on average.
Cincy got an easy win over Indiana State last week, but found a running back in Darrin Williams. The sophomore got just one carry in the opener, but rushed 13 times for 117 yards against the Sycamores. With starter Isaiah Pead a game-time decision, the emergence of Williams is big. Currently AccuScore projects Pead and Williams to share carries against the Wolfpack. If both are at full strength, it will give defenses more things to handle in addition to quarterback Zach Collaros. Collaros is projected to throw for over 300 yards. If he can keep his touchdown-to-interception ratio at better than 2:1 along with the big yardage the Bearcats project to win 75% of the time.
For North Carolina State to win, it will need to follow the same formula it did last week against Central Florida: limit mistakes and force turnovers. The Wolfpack wins 56% of simulations when it commits fewer turnovers. A conservative game plan also means a running game to complement quarterback Russell Wilson. Running back Mustafa Greene averages 41 yards per simulations, but if he can score on the ground (22%) he would help NC State become the slight 51% favorite.
Neither team was good against the spread last season being a combined 9-13. AccuScore has gone 13-6 picking game winners combined on ACC and Big East teams going against non-conference competition.
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