Fantasy Football: Nine Logical Keys to a Succesful Draft

When it comes to fantasy football, the truth is that most people don’t use logic. Most people treat their fantasy teams like they would treat a real NFL team.

The key to understanding how the fantasy football game works is to use past seasons to understand trends. From these trends, people can understand when they should draft certain positions or players, which players they should draft, and how many players from certain positions they should draft.

I have played in eight-straight fantasy football leagues and I have won six of the eight. I finished the season with a team consisting of Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, Joseph Addai, Chad Johnson, T.J Houshmandzadeh, Hines Ward, and Antonio Gates all on my roster.

I know that you’re thinking that I must have been playing with some amateur players. But the truth is that I just made some trades. However, the key to being able to make these trades was my original draft.

Here are my nine logical keys to a successful draft:

1. Instead of drafting backups for kickers, tight ends, and defenses at the end of the draft, stock up on running backs and wide receivers.

People always think that they need backups for when these positions have their bye weeks. However, by the time that bye week comes on, you can just pick one up because you’ll have players on your bench that you won’t care if you release.

The more running backs and wide receivers you have, the more players you have to use in trades and the better chances you have of finding a sleeper player.

2. Do not draft a kicker until the last three rounds.

According to Yahoo, the top-five kickers in 2007 were Mason Crosby, Rob Bironas, Josh Brown, Stephen Gostkowski, and Nick Folk. According to Yahoo, in 2006 the top-five kickers were Robbie Gould, Nate Kaeding, Josh Scobey, Jason Hanson, and Neil Rackers.

Every year, different kickers have the top fantasy seasons. As you can see, a kicker’s success is much more difficult to predict than other positions. Why draft a kicker early when you could probably draft a player late or pick up a player in free agency that could be just as good if not better.

3. Do not worry about byes when drafting.

If you don’t take a player because you don’t want to have too many people with bye weeks on the same week, then you’re already expecting not to have a great team. If one week is really going to make or break your season, then you probably weren’t going to win your season anyway.

4. Do not draft big-name players that have either switched to a team that has a poor offensive line or have lost key offensive lineman to retirement, injury, or free agency.

Examples: 

Edgerrin James: In 2006, he switched teams from the Colts, who had a great offensive line, to the Cardinals, who had a bad offensive line. But yet he was still drafted in the first round in most drafts anyways. People who drafted him regretted it.

Larry Johnson: In 2007, Larry Johnson’s offensive line became worse because of the retirement of Future Hall of Famer Will Shields and the failure to add anyone competent enough to play left and right tackle. But yet he was drafted in the top five in most drafts anyway. People who drafted him regretted it.

5. If the top-seven tight ends have already been drafted, do not draft one until the last three rounds.

For tight ends, once you get past the top seven, the difference between the eighth best and 16th best isn’t much different. According to Yahoo, last year, the range in total points in a standard league for the eighth to the 15th leaders in tight ends was from 85-68.

Why wastes a draft pick when were talking about a difference of 17 points.

6. Do not let the media get into you’re head. How many times do we hear that we should be careful drafting a player because of his character issues.

Examples:

Terrell Owens

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