Fantasy Football: Nine Logical Keys to a Succesful Draft

When it comes to fantasy football, the truth is that most people don’t use logic. Most people treat their fantasy teams like they would treat a real NFL team.

The key to understanding how the fantasy football game works is to use past seasons to understand trends. From these trends, people can understand when they should draft certain positions or players, which players they should draft, and how many players from certain positions they should draft.

I have played in eight-straight fantasy football leagues and I have won six of the eight. I finished the season with a team consisting of Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, Joseph Addai, Chad Johnson, T.J Houshmandzadeh, Hines Ward, and Antonio Gates all on my roster.

I know that you’re thinking that I must have been playing with some amateur players. But the truth is that I just made some trades. However, the key to being able to make these trades was my original draft.

Here are my nine logical keys to a successful draft:

1. Instead of drafting backups for kickers, tight ends, and defenses at the end of the draft, stock up on running backs and wide receivers.

People always think that they need backups for when these positions have their bye weeks. However, by the time that bye week comes on, you can just pick one up because you’ll have players on your bench that you won’t care if you release.

The more running backs and wide receivers you have, the more players you have to use in trades and the better chances you have of finding a sleeper player.

2. Do not draft a kicker until the last three rounds.

According to Yahoo, the top-five kickers in 2007 were Mason Crosby, Rob Bironas, Josh Brown, Stephen Gostkowski, and Nick Folk. According to Yahoo, in 2006 the top-five kickers were Robbie Gould, Nate Kaeding, Josh Scobey, Jason Hanson, and Neil Rackers.

Every year, different kickers have the top fantasy seasons. As you can see, a kicker’s success is much more difficult to predict than other positions. Why draft a kicker early when you could probably draft a player late or pick up a player in free agency that could be just as good if not better.

3. Do not worry about byes when drafting.

If you don’t take a player because you don’t want to have too many people with bye weeks on the same week, then you’re already expecting not to have a great team. If one week is really going to make or break your season, then you probably weren’t going to win your season anyway.

4. Do not draft big-name players that have either switched to a team that has a poor offensive line or have lost key offensive lineman to retirement, injury, or free agency.

Examples: 

Edgerrin James: In 2006, he switched teams from the Colts, who had a great offensive line, to the Cardinals, who had a bad offensive line. But yet he was still drafted in the first round in most drafts anyways. People who drafted him regretted it.

Larry Johnson: In 2007, Larry Johnson’s offensive line became worse because of the retirement of Future Hall of Famer Will Shields and the failure to add anyone competent enough to play left and right tackle. But yet he was drafted in the top five in most drafts anyway. People who drafted him regretted it.

5. If the top-seven tight ends have already been drafted, do not draft one until the last three rounds.

For tight ends, once you get past the top seven, the difference between the eighth best and 16th best isn’t much different. According to Yahoo, last year, the range in total points in a standard league for the eighth to the 15th leaders in tight ends was from 85-68.

Why wastes a draft pick when were talking about a difference of 17 points.

6. Do not let the media get into you’re head. How many times do we hear that we should be careful drafting a player because of his character issues.

Examples:

Terrell Owens: In 2006, when he first signed with the Cowboys after he left the Eagles, people were afraid to draft him high. That year he led the NFL with 14 touchdown receptions.

Randy Moss: In 2007, even though Randy Moss was joining a great offense, many people were scared to draft him. Last year, he led the NFL with 23 touchdown receptions.

7. If the top-four defenses are taken, don’t take one till the last three rounds.

For defenses, once you get past the top four, the difference between the fifth best and 10th best isn’t much different. According to Yahoo!, last year the range in total points in a standard league for the fifth to 10th leaders in defense was from 150-156.

Why wastes a draft pick when were talking about a difference of six points.

8. Once you have all your key starting positions filled, it’s important to take risks when choosing between two players ranked similar.

Example: According to Yahoo, Drew Bennett is ranked as the 139th best player. But honestly, who thinks there is any chance of Drew Bennett having a big impact on your fantasy team this year.

He’s a decent veteran, and we know what he’s going to get you. But I’d rather draft a player who could have a break out year, like Ted Ginn Jr., who is ranked as the 142nd best player according to Yahoo.

9. Backup your star running back in case he gets injured.

Although this made seem obvious, most fantasy players fail to do this, and when their star back gets injured, someone else picks up their backup before them. If you already have your star back’s backup on your roster, then this can be prevented.

Although the draft is the most important part that determines the success of your team, part of the reason for drafting certain players is to use them in trades. Here is my No. 1 rule for fantasy trading.

Do not trade one for many. Only trade many for one.

There are only a certain amount of players that can start each week, so why trade a great player for three solid players that are just going to fill up your roster.

Example of a bad trade: LaDainian Tomlinson for Tory Holt, Wes Welker, and Willis McGahee.

According to Yahoo, last year, Tory Holt, Wes Welker, and Willis McGahee together got around 397 points together, while L.T. got around 247 points; a difference of 150 points. So this trade seems like a good deal to make, right?

But if you give this trade a closer look, you can see that the team that gives up L.T. now has three starting position filled up and has to release two players. On the other hand, the team that gets L.T. now has two open spots for other skill players to start and two open spots for free agents.

Those two, open, starting spots will probably easily make up the 150 points lost and in the end, the team that traded for L.T. ends up getting the better deal.

Following these keys isn’t the only way to build a successful fantasy team. But following these logical keys has worked for me, and I believe they will work for anyone.