When it comes to fantasy football, the truth is that most people don’t use logic. Most people treat their fantasy teams like they would treat a real NFL team.
The key to understanding how the fantasy football game works is to use past seasons to understand trends. From these trends, people can understand when they should draft certain positions or players, which players they should draft, and how many players from certain positions they should draft.
I have played in eight-straight fantasy football leagues and I have won six of the eight. I finished the season with a team consisting of Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, Joseph Addai, Chad Johnson, T.J Houshmandzadeh, Hines Ward, and Antonio Gates all on my roster.
I know that you’re thinking that I must have been playing with some amateur players. But the truth is that I just made some trades. However, the key to being able to make these trades was my original draft.
Here are my nine logical keys to a successful draft:
1. Instead of drafting backups for kickers, tight ends, and defenses at the end of the draft, stock up on running backs and wide receivers.
People always think that they need backups for when these positions have their bye weeks. However, by the time that bye week comes on, you can just pick one up because you’ll have players on your bench that you won’t care if you release.
The more running backs and wide receivers you have, the more players you have to use in trades and the better chances you have of finding a sleeper player.
2. Do not draft a kicker until the last three rounds.
According to Yahoo, the top-five kickers in 2007 were Mason Crosby, Rob Bironas, Josh Brown, Stephen Gostkowski, and Nick Folk. According to Yahoo, in 2006 the top-five kickers were Robbie Gould, Nate Kaeding, Josh Scobey, Jason Hanson, and Neil Rackers.
Every year, different kickers have the top fantasy seasons. As you can see, a kicker’s success is much more difficult to predict than other positions. Why draft a kicker early when you could probably draft a player late or pick up a player in free agency that could be just as good if not better.
3. Do not worry about byes when drafting.
If you don’t take a player because you don’t want to have too many people with bye weeks on the same week, then you’re already expecting not to have a great team. If one week is really going to make or break your season, then you probably weren’t going to win your season anyway.
4. Do not draft big-name players that have either switched to a team that has a poor offensive line or have lost key offensive lineman to retirement, injury, or free agency.
Examples:
24 comments Last one added 10 months ago — Leave a Comment
BGB HYMANBRAND 11 months ago
Intelligent well written article. I have personal experience with no. 6 when I was going to draft Randy Moss but changed my mind at the last minute. My friend drafted Moss and I was pissed the whole season.
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Zipi loves 11 months ago
A VERY SMART AND FASCINATING ADVICE ON HOW TO DRAFT FOR FANTASY. YOUR EXAMPLES ABOUT PAST TRENDS WERE BRILIANT . I agree that most people are letting the media influence thier pick insted of looking objectively at the porition and the line to defend the postion. Thanks Man. I will use it.
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Nick Martin 11 months ago
You could add Steven Jackson to that #4 examples, when orlando pace went down his rushing numbers paid the price.
Good article.
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steve halbert jr. 11 months ago
excellent article.
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Jimbo 11 months ago
Excellent article! I especially agree with No. 3. Too many owners pass on a great player in favor of a so-so player based solely on bye weeks. Good advice, for sure. :)
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Silver Fox 11 months ago
Thanks for the helpful information!
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Rob Ohlstrom 11 months ago
"I finished the season with a team consisting of Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, Joseph Addai, Chad Johnson, T.J Houshmandzadeh, Hines Ward, and Antonio Gates all on my roster."
What did you give up to build the team? (And who did you trade for?)
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Jacob Sloan 10 months ago
Yeah, second that question. Haha. Who did you trade away and how many people were in this league?
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Chris Hester 11 months ago
Calling All Bleacher Report "Fantasy Experts"
Are you interested in joining a Bleacher Report football league on RotoHog? If so, please email me at wrongarm300@yahoo.com. I am trying to get as many Bleacher Report writers as possible so if you know anyone else that may be interested, have them contact me as well!! Let's make this huge and represent the Bleacher!!
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Ari Horing 11 months ago
Keep in mind that it was an 8 player league. I had the second pick in the draft and my initial team was Steven Jackson round 1, Brian Westbrooke round 2( although he did drop a bit, he wasn't ranked nearly as high as he is this year), Chad Johnson round 3, Roy Williams round 4, Clinton Portis round 5, (if you remember Ladell Betts was suppose to take a bunch of carries away) Donald Driver round 6, Adrian Peterson round 7 ( If you remember he was suppose to split carries with chester taylor) I also drafted Jon Kitna- but I can't remember when I got him. I also got a lot of other quality receivers like Greg Jennings, Darrell Jackson, Brandon Marshall and some other backups in later rounds but I can't remember the order.
I then made a lot of trades.
I traded Steven Jackson, Jon Kitna and Marshall for Peyton Manning and Anguan Boldin. I then traded Westbrooke, Portis, and Darrell Jackson, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver for LT and Antonio Gates. I traded Roy Williams and Boldin for T.J and Hines Ward. I then traded Adrian Peterson and someone later in like the 5th week for Joseph Addai which was basically a wash since they both finished with the same amount of fantasy points last season.
So I ended up with a starting lineup of
Peyton Manning, LT, Addai, Chad Johnson, T.J, Hines Ward, Antonio Gates. get it now?
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Rob Ohlstrom 11 months ago
Don't take this the wrong way.
You took the second pick in the draft, and traded him for a QB who was drafted somewhere from 8-12, in that trade you downgraded from Marshall to Boldin, and threw in a crap QB.
Then you traded Westbrook(2) and Portis(5) along with 3 WR's (Although in an 8 team league Jennings was the only one worth a start) for LT(1) and Gates.
Then you took Peterson(3) and traded him for Addai(3).
This wasn't the most efficient use of your assets.
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steve halbert jr. 11 months ago
nice work then. quick question. why is marshawn lynch ranked so high on all these fantasy websites? i fail to see the spectacular
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Jacob Sloan 10 months ago
Finished in the top 10 of RBs or just outside in standard scoring as a rookie, missing some games with injury and not getting a lot of third downs.
This season Buffalo coaches expect him to play all three downs, he is still working with a rookie QB that will rely on the run game and he faces poor run defenses all season. What's not to like?
Plus, Beast Mode. See YouTube if you don't believe me:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWKEJqkKLcs
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Ari Horing 11 months ago
Well running backs are obviously the big time fantasy position. But the reason that Marshawn Lynch is ranked so high is that he is the outright number 1 back for that team (which is rare to find), he is a talented player, and they have a decent run blocking line. If you look at his stats form last year he had 1115 rushing yards, 184 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns all as a rookie in only 13 games. Give the man 16 games and some more experience and he could put up some quality numbers.
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steve halbert jr. 11 months ago
truth truth
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Osi Umenyiora 11 months ago
This story should mention some of the basics:
-- Make your own draft board. Two minutes before the start of your draft and you draw lots from a hat and find out that you have the first pick. If you don't immediately know who you're going to take then you're already dead in the water. Make your own board where you rank at least the top 20 QBs, the top 50 RBs and the top 100 WRs.
-- Track the draft as it takes place. Write down everyone's picks and you'll know if the people before and after you need a QB, a third backup RB, etc. Know your opponent, and know him DURING the draft.
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Ari Horing 11 months ago
Well this isn't a Fantasy Football for Dumbies article. I think that stuff is pretty obvious. All that stuff is good to know if I was writing an article about having an offline draft with your friends. By the way most fantasy football leagues are actually online drafts that do not involve drawing lots from hats. Also your not automatically dead if you don't know who your going to pick right away. A lot of times I'm not sure who I'm going to pick right away. The key is to have in a mind of few players you want to draft. Also you don't have to make your own board, most sites rank players for you, and you can print them off and use them as a guide while your drafting.
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Jacob Sloan 10 months ago
True, but it never hurts to be prepared. It's hard to trust the rankings of many sites out there. Sometimes rankings aren't adjusted much before your draft, or they overvalue studs from past season even if they are now in bad offenses. No matter what kind of draft you do, it's never a waste of time to have your own list of top picks that you are targeting and their average draft position stats so you can catch them where you want them.
Not saying you should have put that in your article. I think your tips are very solid. I'm just saying there is some value to doing your homework.
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Rob Ohlstrom 11 months ago
Ari Horing?
YOU BET YOUR ASS WE ARE!
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Ari Horing 11 months ago
Ya but Lt wasn't as good as he was the year before, that's one reason that trade wasn't as successfully. however, Steven Jackson had a bad year didn't he, so it was a good trade. My goal is to have the best starting lineup possible, not have great backs like Portis sitting on my bench. all in all I ended up with three first round picks on my team. that's is good use of trading. You can't just take a look at my trades after the season is over. Yes there were some trades I maybe shouldn't of done, but I ended up with a sick lineup.
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Ari Horing 11 months ago
BY the way I downgraded from Boldin to Marshall? Boldin had been a consistent fantasy threat, while Marshall had one breakout year last year. I did most of these trades before the season last year. Knowing what I knew that was a definite upgrade.
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Jacob Sloan 10 months ago
So you made most of these trades before Week 1? (Just clarifying)
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Ari Horing 11 months ago
Here's what you get if you compare what I traded for to what my original lineup would have been
Peyton manning 359 points, Jon Kitna 259.
LT- 246, Jackson 124
Addai 188, Westbrooke, 213
Johnson- 144, Johnson 144
T.J 155, Williams 87
Ward 95 Driver 83
Gates 121, random bad tight end I can't even remember what he got.
I would not of put Jennings, marshal, or peterson( 183 points) in my lineup before last season.
By the way you can't say that I totally abolished my bench, because I haven't even mentioned how sick my bench was from free agency players like Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham, and other trades I made using bench players. I'm just talking about my starting lineup right now.
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Jacob Sloan 10 months ago
Nice suggestions. I usually go by all of the same guidelines when I draft.
The only two that I would tweak are your tips about defenses and backups.
I usually avoid defenses all together until the last two or three rounds. The top defenses are usually drafted higher than they should be, and there is too much turnover from one year to the next. While you can rely on 1 or 2 teams to remain solid point producers, the other top ones are going to have setbacks or produce on the same level as many other Ds. There's always a defense that surprises each season you can get if you get stuck with a bad one.
As for backups, if someone is going to take the backup to your stud in the sixth or seventh round, let them. Highly valued backups (Darren Sproles, etc.) aren't worth parking on your bench. I'd rather have a roster full of players that could potentially start than have 1 or 2 bench spots locked up with backups that will be used only in an emergency.
If you don't worry about handcuffing, you can take players who will share significant time with starters by the time others are taking their stud's backups. If the worst happens and your stud does get hurt, pick up the backup off the waiver wire or start one of the other quality players you drafted while your buddies were taking your backups.
Of course, the only exception to that this season is Chester Taylor. He can still play and Adrian Peterson is BOUND to get hurt. If I have to draft AP, I am making sure I get CT on my roster. If I don't draft AP, I'm making sure I take CT before AP's owner gets a chance so that I have the starting Viking RB when AP gets put in on the IR.
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