Last night's Colts-Redskins game marked the official opening of the football season, which to millions out there it means it is time to start preparing for our annual fantasy-football draft.
Whether your draft takes place in your parent's basement or the company boardroom, one rule remains consistent: DON'T PICK THE BUST.
Every year there are a multitude of busts, and at some point, in everyone's fantasy-football career, they have been unlucky enough to draft that bust. Michael Vick in 2003 (broken leg during the preseason), Shaun Alexander in 2006 (1,000 less rushing yards and 20 less TDs than a year before), and Thomas Jones last year (1 Rushing TD over the course of the season,) all serve as painful reminders of top picks being wasted on talent that doesn't pan out.
So, as draft day approaches, I am here to provide America with my Top-five players to avoid come draft day.
1. Larry Johnson
L.J. is my No. 1 bust for the 2008 season. However, this is not due to his own shortcomings, but to the short comings of the team that surrounds him. An offseason that saw the Chiefs bring in only three new linemen, none of which are notable, does not bode well for Johnson's YPC.
The Chiefs' O-line will get bullied around by stronger and more experienced defensive units in the AFC, which will mean less yardage and TD's for L.J.
A weak offensive-line can sometimes be counter-balanced by a veteran QB and a talented receiving corps, two things that the Chiefs also do not have.
Brodie Croyle will struggle in his first full season as the starting QB and with Jeff Webb (I'll pause for you to research who the hell Jeff Webb is) being the leading candidate for the No. 2 receiver position, do not look for many AFC teams to stack their secondary against the Chiefs.
L.J. will constantly see teams stack eight in the box against them, and while he has the talent to carry for 1,700+ yards and 10+ TDs, his team does not.
2. Tom Brady
This will be quick and simple. Tom Brady will have a good season and will throw for around 30 TDs, but people who are using a top-three pick on Brady because he posted 50 TDs last year will be disappointed to see him not get near those numbers again.
One of the most important things to take into account while drafting is the marginal point differential among players at each position. The difference in total points between the No. 1 QB and the No. 10 QB is more likely to be smaller than the difference in total points between the No. 1 and No. 10 RB.
Getting a stud RB early and a solid QB in round four is a much safer option than taking Brady with your top pick and praying that Michael Turner or some later round RB will come through.
3. Willis McGahee
18 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Bob Cunningham 11 months ago
McNabb is back to Pro Bowl form.
He's 100% healthy, the knee is in the past. The shoulder is fine.
Draft McNabb, it'll pay off.
and hey, Steve Young only ever finished 3 seasons in his entire career.
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Kevin Luchansky 11 months ago
how can Brady be a bust? the offense is still high powered and he was far and away the leader in fantasy points last season
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Jacob Sloan 11 months ago
I think we're talking bust more in the sense that they won't live up to the hype they are getting this off-season. Brady's playing against the odds this year since no QB that sets the TD record returns with a comparable campaign the next year. While he won't leave you hanging, Brady could get passed up by another QB this year who has a big season.
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Detroit Sports Fan 11 months ago
McNabb will be great,
Colston won't be a bust,
McGahee will get good yardage,
and Brady couldn't possibly be a bust,
and Larry Johnson will be decent to good.
HORRIBLE LIST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
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Jacob Sloan 11 months ago
I agree that the word 'bust' in the usual sense doesn't really apply here, but hey, let's talk guys that won't live up to their draft values. Is decent to good what you want in your first round RB talent? And is good yardage enough to justify a second round selection of McGahee over an elite receiver? McGahee, as you said, Detroit, might be in for more of the same with a lot of yardage and few TDs this year. This hype around him as a three down back could all fade quickly if his knee doesn't get into shape.
I agree with you that Colston is likely to go unscathed from the Shockey acquisition, but I say this list is only horrible because it has 'bust' in the title and doesn't mention David Carr or Rex Grossman. (And that's a joke, by the way)
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bob mantz 11 months ago
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/peter_king/07/30/eagles.postcard/
"McNabb is entrenched as the starter here and will not be challenged for the starting job unless he gets hurt again, which, of course, is always possible."
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gregory caldarella 11 months ago
I would tend to disagree with all of these bust picks...colston is a montser regardless of shockey's impact, McNabb is primed for a season where he returns to prominence, Brady is Brady, McGahee is mr. reliable yardage wise and LJ will have a bounce back year but you make a good point in the lack of a supporting cast which could certainly hamper his numbers...I will be writing up my list of fantasy busts shortly so stay tuned
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Jacob Sloan 11 months ago
Nice insight. Look forward to checking out your list of fantasy busts.
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Tyler Jones 11 months ago
Some good points, but what some people I think are disagreeing with is the term "bust". You can not be as good as expected, but does that make you an all-out bust? I don't really know. But you can't expect many people to agree with you on guys like Brady and Colston. I could see it with LJ though.
Also, a invitation for anyone interested. im trying to get a fantasy football league together comprised of bleacher report writers. Anyone interested just post your email on my profile and I'll send you the invite. it's an Aug. 17(sunday) draft, but if it isn't filled in time, we'll push it back. Free too.
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Patrick Shields 11 months ago
I agree with what you and other's are saying. Bust might not have been the best term (Minus LJ). Was more going for the idea that bust would mean you could get a lot better value for draft pick than each guy I listed. Oh well, feedback is appreciated.
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Ryan Hartung 11 months ago
None of these make any sense!!!!
How can Brady be a BUST?!??!?!??!
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Matt Gilmartin 11 months ago
I think you're spot-on with LJ. The Cheifs' offense is downright terrible except for him.
True, Brady will not be as much of a fantasy value this year as last year, but he will still be a mighty fantasy force.
I think you're off with McGahee. The Ravens don't have many receivers, and the defense should get the offense the ball a lot. McGahee should be their whole offense. But then again, teams could easily gang up on McGahee, so who knows?
I'm not sure about Colston. You may be right.
I also agree with you on McNabb. He's gotta prove that he's back to his old self before I put any fantasy trust in him.
Overall good piece and analysis.
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Collin Hager - The Roundtable 11 months ago
I think your points on L.J. and McGahee are justified. I just can't see Brady failing to live up to top-quarterback standards. He and Manning will be 1-2 in the rankings this season, again. With Moss and Welker in that lineup alone he should be close to 40 touchdowns.
Marques Colston I think will BENEFIT from the emergence of Reggie Bush and the plus of a useful tight end in the lineup. Colston was putting up those numbers while seeing increased coverage from the safety position. Now, linebackers will have to pick up either Shockey or Bush out of the backfield and you'll then need to see a safety push up or the rush drop back to grab the other.
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Patrick Shields 11 months ago
I agree that Colston could see less double teaming in the secondary, which will lead to perhaps more YPC, but a big factor in my decision to put him on this list is Shockey's red zone effeciency. Over the last three seasons, Shockey has 14 TD's in the Red Zone, with 7 coming in 2006-2007, his last full season. I think Shockey will end up stealing some of the Red Zone TD's (14) that Colston has caught over the past two seasons.
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Collin Hager - The Roundtable 11 months ago
Great point, hadn't thought about it from that perspective. Colston was basically like having a receiving tight end out there, and Shockey could steal some of those for certain.
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Jimbo 11 months ago
I really enjoyed this article. It's better to go out on a limb with gutsy choices and create debate than to just play it safe. With that said, I would still bank on Tom Brady to finish the season as the top fantasy football quarterback. He might not match his 2007 totals, but with the talent around him and the schedule the Pats play this year, Brady could be in for another monster year.
I understand your point that taking him in the slot he's projected in is foolhardy, but I would say that he is head and shoulders above every other player at his position, including Peyton Manning, who's knee could very well bother him all season.
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Jacob Sloan 11 months ago
You know, sir. If I didn't know any better, I'd say you really dislike Manning this year from the comments you are leaving about him.
I agree with your Manning concerns. He's more questionable this season than he has ever been, and I'd like to pass on him this year unless he really falls to me. If I jump early for a QB, it's Brady, but I don't expect him to have a monster season like last year. He is solid with Wes Welker and Randy Moss, and I'd be happy with a season that has him finish 1 or 2 among QBs even if it isn't 50 TDs.
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Jacob Sloan 11 months ago
You started some nice debate here, Patrick. I'd have to say that I like some of the guys that you are calling 'busts,' but I understand that you are using it to mean players that are hyped more than their value. In that, I can agree with your concerns for Brady (when he's touted as a number 1 pick) and LJ (when everyone says he'll be just like the LJ of two years ago).
I think I'd still take Tom Brady, Colston and maybe even McGahee without too much concern, but only if they are at their value.
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