It’s hard to believe that the final major of the year is about to start tomorrow.
I mean, where did the summer go? The next thing you know we will be out there roaming the courses looking for our balls in leaf scattered fairways and feeling that early morning fall chill starting to settle in.
Whistling Straits, a Pete Dye designed monster, is a true links style course requiring both length and accuracy from the tee. There is not a lot of wiggle room here. Fairways and greens will be the key this week, as it is in many events on tour. True Ball Strikers will have an advantage over the field this week, so keep an eye on that stat when selecting your players this week.
Will Singh win here in Wisconsin like he did back in 2004? I am of the opinion that he will not. Making the cut seems like a more realistic step for him to take. What about Tiger? Well, after coming of his four worst rounds in an event EVER, I think I will be steering far clear from Mr. Woods as well this week. Phil? When I hear the word arthritis and golfer in the same sentence, I get scared. No thank you Phil, not this week anyway. How about Steve Stricker? After all he IS from Wisconsin… From my research all indications are that Stricker is due for a decline before an upswing, so again I am avoiding him this week.
Let’s start off with Yahoo fantasy and then get into who I want to wager on. My total points on the year are now 4345. I am leading Arkush by 198 and Planer by 17 points. I trail Vara by only 18 and Romig by 187. Just so you are aware, I LOVE Matt Kuchar from group C this week, but I cannot start him as I have used all ten of his starts for the year already.
Start Ernie Els
Sit Luke Donald
Start Retief Goosen and Dustin Johnson
Sit Rory McIlroy and Jeff Overton
Start Graeme McDowell
Sit Rickie Fowler
Let’s get on to the six pack and make some money. We had three guys in the top five on Sunday last week only to succumb to a brilliant performance by Hunter Mahan. At least our boy, Bo Van Pelt hung on to get us a nice top five finishing paying out a decent 26:1 odds. This field is very strong and very deep, so there are many honorable mentions this week: Furyk 30:1, O’Hair 40:1, Rose 40:1, Overton 45:1, Kaymer 50:1, McDowell 50:1, DeJonge 125:1, and Wi at 150:1 odds.
Retief Goosen is one of the finest players in the game and he tends to excel in big events. So far in 2010 Retief has only missed one cut in 14 attempts. He has nine top 25 finishes, of which eight have been in the top ten. Ladies and gentlemen, this guy is dialed in.
In Goosen’s last five efforts he has mustered up three top six or better placements. He is ranked 15th in the world.
Look at some of Retief’s stats:
- Third in Scoring Average at 69.70 strokes per round
- 12th in Total Driving (accuracy and distance combined)
- 45th in Ball Striking
For being at the peak of his game and leading the PGA in top ten finishes, I love Retief Goosen as my odds on favorite to win in Wisconsin at 33:1 odds.
I think that many people may be shying away from Dustin Johnson this week due to his total carnage collapse at this year's US Open. I am not one of those people, I love Dustin to bounce back nicely this week and make a serious bid to win his first major.
DJ has had a phenomenal year so far and it looks as though he is trending back up. He has finished 33rd, eighth, CUT, 14th, and 15th in his last five events. I love the way this course plays into Johnson's game. His length should give him a nice advantage this week over the rest of the field.
DJ has made 15 out of 18 cuts this year and has amassed eight top 25 finishes with half of those being in the top ten. Dustin has cashed almost $2.5 million in checks so far in 2010.
Let's look at Dustin from a statistical approach:
- Third in Driving Distance on tour at 307.5 yards
- 29th in Scoring Average at 70.30 strokes per round
- Fourth in Par Breakers at 22.76 percent
- Second in Eagles made with 14 on the year
I love DJ this week at 45:1 odds.
When I think of guys on tour who have done it all this year, EXCEPT win, I automatically think of Nick Watney. He has been knocking on the door so many times this year that it seems to me a nice major victory would be the icing on his cake this year.
Watney has only missed two cuts in 18 tries. He has 11 top 25 finishes with six of those being in the top ten. Recently Watney has been on a tear and is trending up very nicely. In his last five tourneys he has finished CUT, 76th, seventh, seventh, and 16th. Nick is a terrific Ball Striker. This will be a HUGE factor this week.
Look at these numbers:
- 27th in Driving Distance at 296 yards
- Tenth in GIR at 70.05 percent
- Ninth in Par Breakers at 22.4 percent
- Tenth best Ball Striker on tour
If Nick Watney can get his putter rolling for him, he is a strong candidate for victory. Plus I love that you can get him at a value ridden 45:1 odds.
The deeper we go into the six pack, the more I see guy after guy who has seemingly done everything BUT win this year. Look no further than Matt Kuchar. This guy is having a career year and is on absolute fire right now.
Kuchar has made 17 out of 20 cuts this year and has impressed many with his unreal 14 top 25 finishes! Of those 14 finishes he has made eight top tens. He has finished third twice and second once. I am telling you, this could be a very special week form Mr. Matt Kuchar.
In Matt's past five events he has shown nothing but quality by finishing sixth, 27th, fourth, 21st, and ninth.
Look at some of these stats:
- Ninth in GIR at 70.19 percent
- Fifth in Scoring Average at 69.72 strokes per round
- First in All Around Ranking
- 12th in Par Breakers at 22.30 percent
- 13th in Ball Striking (VERY important this week)
No matter what, you'd be crazy not to at least place a small wager on Kuchar to win it all this week at an amazing 50:1 odds.
What a year this young man is having. It seems like BVP is finally having that breakout year, we all knew was in him. Bo has made 18 out of 21 cuts on the year and placed in the top 25 on ten occasions. He also has six top ten finishes, placing third three times, including his impressive showing at last week’s WGC Bridgestone Championship.
BVP has pulled in just over $2.5 million this year and is showing no signs of slowing down. In his last five tourneys, he has finished 40th, 34th, 11th, 44th and third. Van Pelt has shown great confidence in big events this year. A major victory this week is not out of his reach.
Look at BVP’s digits:
- Tenth in Scoring Average at 69.90 strokes per round
- 17th in Total Driving
- 13th in Par Breakers at 22.22 percent
- Second in Total Birdies with 309 on the year
- Ninth in Ball Striking
BVP is poised for victory and is still getting virtually no respect from the sports books. I found him this week at 66:1 odds, and I suggest you do the same.
Again, if he is in the field, he is in the six pack. Rickie Fowler proves to me over and over that he has the mentality to win on tour, it is simply a matter of time. Follow my advice and keep an eye on this kid, he will win, and it very well could be this week.
Fowler has been up and down on cuts made this year making 13 out of 21. He has made seven top 25 finishes and has five top ten finishes on his resume. In his past five events Fowler has been up and down, finishing 13th, CUT, CUT, 14th and 33rd.
He is a great Ball Striker, which is important and he also has some other decent stats:
- Seventh in GIR at 70.24 percent
- Tenth in Ball Striking
- 17th in Money Leaders at just over $2.2 million
I love having Fowler in my long shot position. I found him at a whopping 100:1 odds this week amd couldn’t be happier.
No matter who you like enjoy the tourney this week and remember to hit ‘em staright!