It was a given that the Warriors off-season was going to be exciting the moment it was announced that Baron Davis was heading back home to LA.
Summer league has brought further excitement, and new reasons to believe for Warriors fans. Anthony Randolph has looked much more like an NBA player than a bust, Marco Belinelli is starting to develop a more well rounded game, and Richard Hendrix proved to be as good a rebounder as advertised in his first game. So you must forgive Warriors fans if the signings of Corey Maggette and Ronny Turiaf feel like something of a let down. Neither have the Hollywood personality of Baron Davis, nor the game changing talent of Elton Brand, Josh Smith, or any number of 2010 free agents. However, although these moves aren’t splashy or likely to draw the fans that Baron Davis could simply by stepping on the court, they might end up making a lot of basketball sense.
Assuming they are able to retain up-and-coming players Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis, the Warriors are starting to build a well balanced rotation around their young core of Biedrins and Ellis. As Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury news notes, “...what Mullin has formulated now is a 9- or 10-man rotation, with youth and versatility, that has some money next season (Foyle’s $6.8M buy-out number comes off the cap) and some interesting ways to go.” It would be silly to expect this team to win more games, but their future looks quite bright.
As I probed deeper into what Mullin & Co. is constructing, I also noticed something about the way the Warriors’ front office has put together this team. In Maggette, the Warriors have an efficient scorer and free-throw shooter. Turiaf should bring an increased offensive rebounding percentage to the team.
When you look at the Warriors' moves from that perspective, you see that their reasoning is actually quite consistent with Dean Oliver’s Four Factors concept. If that is indeed the line of reasoning they are following (or something similar), then the Warriors may have improved their roster more than we think from a basketball standpoint. What the Warriors have lost in star power and flash this offseason, they have made up for with sound basketball decisions that may compensate for the increased financial flexibility they’ve
8 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Stephen Lurie 11 months ago
Good points and I agree that they are moving in the right direction.
With Portland looking tougher, and the rest of the conference already tough, I think it will be hard for the Warriors to make the playoffs; still I hope that there will be signs of further player development and that they compete night-in and night-out.
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Michael Hughes 11 months ago
I njoyed your article--good analysis with a positive but realistic spin. It's nice to read something other than baseless, arrogant whining. We should not forget that it was Don Nelson, not Baron Davis who raised the bar in San Francisco. If Baron Davis thought that he could play many more years, he would have stayed in San Francisco where he would have continued to make big bucks. Instead, he went for the guaranteed money.
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Quentin McCall 11 months ago
Well, there's a rumor out there now that the Warriors never even tried to resign Davis... but generally, I agree with your point. Davis played as expected, Nelson probably exceeded expectations by getting us to the second round on small ball talent.
Hopefully, what we'll see this year is a willingness to abandon small ball and start actually banging with the bigger teams in the league rather than wilting...
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isaac narell 11 months ago
didn't they cause the most turnovers last season also? I might be wrong, but it seems like everyone turns the ball over a lot when they try to run like the warriors do.
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Quentin McCall 11 months ago
Thanks for the comment Isaac.
You're right, I was wrong: Yes, they did cause the most turnovers in the league and their pace is likely a reason for that. In fact, their turnover differential was one of the best in league. And I just revisited the turnover percentage stats and they were actually one of the better teams in the league.. so that is good news.
Thanks for pointing that out.
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Peter Gallegos 11 months ago
Very good read,
I have never heard of the Dean Oliver's Four Factor Concepts, and I consider myself a knowledgeable fan.
This was a very interesting article.
One of the most professionally presented articles. Not that I am an expert.
I have a lot of hope for the Warriors future and I am excited in the way the leadership is going. Here is hoping that Anthony, Wright and Marco become great players.
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Dave Nemetz 11 months ago
Great article, Quentin. I also hadn't heard of the Four Factors, so it's good to learn about those and also be comforted by the possibility that the Warriors may actually have a solid plan in place as opposed to wandering aimlessly through their post-Baron stupor.
I think it makes a lot of sense to build around Ellis, Biedrins, and hopefully Wright with the intention of making some noise next year but truly contending in 2009 and 2010, once most of the old guard Western Conference powers (Suns, Spurs, Mavs) have really started to fade. The jury's still out whether they can hold compete with the new look Lakers, upstart Hornets, and on-the-verge Blazers, but that's who they should be gunning for.
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kevin recinos 11 months ago
give those guys some time, let them find a point like hinrich or marbury or someone that can score but also distribute the ball like baron, and they'll be back in the playoffs, and might surprise people
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