MLB Prediction: Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: April 29th 2010

Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Free Pick: Kansas City Royals +220
Courtesy of Mike Rose (Handicapperspicks.com)
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Tropicana Field should be ready to rock and roll tonight for the first of a four game series between the Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Royals have shown signs of promise this year, but they’ve lost a number of one run and extra inning games this season. They just wrapped up a six game home stand in which they went 2-4, but lost two of those games by one run and one in extras.

Tampa Bay is having no such problems. The 2008 American League champs are rolling, as they have the best record in baseball and have won four straight games.

No Royals pitcher has been better since the acquisition of C Jason Kendall than RHP Luke Hochevar. The righty was lit up for a 6.55 ERA a year ago, but he has settled down into four respectable starts this year.

Hochevar, formerly the #1 overall pick in the MLB Draft, is 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA, and he is out of the chute full of potential for a great third year in the majors.

RHP Matt Garza’s most recent start was his only lousy effort of the season to date. He allowed five runs in as many innings of work in the Rays’ 6-5 loss to the Blue Jays; the only loss so far on this home stand.

For the season, the right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA, as he hadn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his previous three starts.

Tampa Bay is just 2-10 in Garza’s L/12 starts against the AL Central.

It’s hard to argue with anything that Garza has done on the mound this year, but it’s also hard to lay this type of price on him in this game.

The Royals are a significantly better team than their record and history indicate, and we’ll take our chances tonight at some hefty odds that Hochevar can keep his solid season going and lead Kansas City to victory.

Take the big odds and back the Royals over Tampa on Thursday night!

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3. The MLB Betting Market through 4/19: April 19th 2010