The 2010 NFL Draft Betting Card

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time for Round 1 of the NFL Draft.

And, though they are dragging out the affair over more days than normal, we can all breathe easy knowing that the amount of times that we have to see a Todd McShay/Mel Kiper split screen starts to dwindle after tonight.  For that, we are all thankful.

Any way you slice it though, the NFL Draft makes for some slow moving television.  Everything that we typically dislike about watching a sporting event – the forced conversation during breaks, the overuse of pre-recorded bits, awkward “sideline” interviews, Chris Berman, etc – make up the great majority of tonight’s broadcast.  So do yourself a favor and start throwing around some cash on a few side bets to keep it interesting.

As a service for our readers, we have even laid out a few alternative wagers and the associated odds for you to enjoy…

ESPN will show the montage of angry Jets fans – 1:5
The montage that first aired in 2006 (at least I think) undoubtedly brings some entertainment value.  Even if you’ve seen it so many times on YouTube or during past drafts that you know ever scene before it happens, there is still the pure comedy that is the footage of 80’s Jets fans along with the realization that a good number of them still look exactly the same 25+ years later.

All that said, this montage might be one of Berman’s favorite things on earth – it’s just the right mix of funny reactions from fans, horrible picks to mock in hindsight and his own voice.  For that reason above all, we see it as almost a certainty that it will make the show likely while we wait for pick #29 to be read by Mr. Goodell.

Bon Jovi will perform before, after or during the Draft – 8:1
It certainly would appear on the surface that the necessary criteria is in place here for an appearance from JBJ.  It’s a made-for-TV event associated with sports, ESPN is involved, the event would in no way be enhanced by a live musical performance – it’s like this situation was tailor-made for Bon Jovi, who seems to have muscled out Aerosmith and the Goo-Goo Dolls for control over all televised, contrived sports gigs.

Where there is smoke there is usually fire…and by “fire” we mean ”publicity hungry lead singers who have perfectly manicured girl hair.” ###MORE###

The Rams pick will be horrible – 1:1
It may take a few years to officially collect on any money laid on this wager, but trust me, whether the name is Suh, Bradford, McCoy, etc. the simple fact remains that by pulling on a Rams uniform they are all but guaranteed to suck.

Other franchises certainly have a history of poor NFL draft picks through the years, but over the past decade you would be hard pressed to locate a team that has butchered it’s first round picks more so than the Rams.  Hell, you saw the video from yesterday.  It’s gotten to the point where I wouldn’t even flinch if Roger Goodell came to the podium and said “With the first pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams have handed me a card written in crayon that says ‘Tim Tebow is dreamy’.”

Since the three-year “Greatest Show on Turf” run, the Rams have once again devolved into a bad soap opera. Now with two potential new owners (one of which has a handlebar mustache, the other always looks like he’s wearing a bad toupee) on the cusp of heading into a steel cage to decide who gets the right to blackmail the city into building a new stadium in five years, this year’s top pick just serves as another twist in a storyline that constantly makes the fans think “what could possibly make this team worse?”

Todd McShay will get one of his mock 7th round picks correct – 99:1
In 2007, I filed away the final mock drafts from both Kiper and McShay before the actual picks were made so that we could confirm just how mindless it is to try to predict how the first 255 picks of an NFL draft will unfold.

When I went back to review how accurately the “draft experts” had predicted the way things would shake out, I only made it through three rounds of picks before 1.) I had effectively gotten the results I anticipated and 2.) I started drooling on my keyboard when I passed out from boredom.

The results were actually worse than expected as McShay – a guy whose job includes nothing but analyzing the NFL draft in between tanning appointments – accurately predicted a grand total of one pick in the second and third rounds combined.  From picks 7-99, he had a 4.3% hit rate.  Kiper called a whopping 4.5% accurately over the same stretch and picked zero correctly in the second and third rounds. So if our experts are batting .040 from picks 7-99, by the time the 7th round rolls in, I have to assume we’re probably going to be struggling to keep that average above 1%.

Of course I’ll be eating my words when McShay straight calls that Leigh Tiffin to Cincy pick at #228.

Roger Goodell will draft himself #1 overall – 285:1
Let’s look at all the factors why this might not be as far fetched as it would have been in the Tagliabue days…

-Goodell is in better shape than most NFL players
-Goodell could excel at every position on the field… simultaneously
-Goodell wants to single-handedly break the NFL Players Union
-Goodell believes that the draft will have higher ratings the more he is on camera
-Goodell is the most powerful man in the world

Seems pretty clear cut – if Roger Goodell wants to make himself the first pick in the draft, then he will and everyone will have no choice but to shut up and accept it.  If you don’t like it, he’s got two words for you – Black. Out.

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