Fantasy Football: Comparing Draft Theories

Last week, I decided to test some of the Old School Fantasy Football Drafting Theories.

I ran 24 mock drafts to look for differences in the Two Running Backs in the first two rounds theory, as opposed to the “Triplets” where you take a QB/RB/WR in the first three rounds (order determined by best available at the three positions per round).

There was a draft performed from each draft position in a 12-team league. You can view the results HERE. You should really go read that first and then come back and join us.

While doing the drafts, I had an unsettling feeling that I was missing out on some fantasy points, because I had to reach for certain players/positions to meet the theory being tested.

I decided to do an update this week, doing 12 more drafts (one per draft position). In these mock drafts, the goal was to put together the best group of starters possible without sticking to one of the above mentioned draft theories.

It was time to throw the “I have to have another RB NOW” thought process out the window.

The Mocks were performed using Football Guys Draft Dominator software. The same settings were used as the prior mocks, as follows…

Starters:
1 QB
2 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 K
1 DT

Scoring:
Passing: 6 pts per TD, 1 pt per 20 yards, -2 per INT
Rushing/Receiving: 6 pts per TD, 1 point per 10 yards, -2 per fumble

The computer teams used varying ADP rankings from five different sources to ensure they were not going by the same list—you know, more like a real draft.

The value at each position is ranked by the projected points over the course of the season. There is full roster, starters, and the starting RB’s in the resulting draft. In parentheses after the players is the Average Draft Position at Fantasy Football Calculator.

DISCLAIMER: This is by no means a science. Yes, there are holes all over it, but numbers are fun! The projected points are taken from the draft software. Players picked were taken according to best available for the theory according to the projected points.

I will post the results of the projected points from the previous test as well as the updated projected points in tables at the end of the article for comparison.

Draft position No. 1

Summary: In the first round, we went with LT (ADP-1.01). The first four rounds actually came out the same as the Triplets in the previous article. Fitz (ADP-2.08) and Drew Brees (3.09) followed LT. LenDale White was the second RB, and Jason Witten joined the team at TE.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2326
Starters 1806
RB Value: 471

Draft position No. 2

Summary: In this one, we get to stray from the theories tested last week. The second draft position saw us take Adrian Peterson (ADP-1.02) with the second pick. The second and third round go to WR with Larry Fitzgerald at 2.11 (ADP-2.08) and Andre Johnson (ADP-2.07) at 3.1.

That's pretty good value that would have been passed up in the other theories. This was much better than having to reach for a Jamal Lewis as a second RB right away. Edge James was brought in as the second RB, with Matt Hassellbeck and Kellen Winslow also on the squad.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2301
Starters 1771
RB Value: 429

Draft position No. 3

Summary: With the computer taking Brian Westbrook at the second pick, I’m able to pull AP again in the first round. In fact, all of the first six rounds go the same as position No. 2.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2282
Starters 1771
RB Value: 429

Draft position No. 4

Summary: Again the ADP lists used by the computer picks for Nos. 2 and 3 don’t care as much for AP (Westbrook and Steven Jackson go), leaving him to me at No. 4. I don’t look for this to happen too often with the hype around AP.

In the second round, Fitz is gone and the pick is Tony Romo (ADP-2.10). Andre Johnson is still around in the third, with Edge/Winslow in the next two rounds. Overall roster value is higher here, but the starters take a dip.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2315
Starters 1762
RB Value: 429

Draft position No. 5

Summary: The draft begins to look much different, as AP is finally gone. Joseph Addai (ADP-1.05) is the first rounder. Tony Romo is there again in the second. Chad Johnson (ADP-3.05) makes his first appearance. LenDale White is the second RB.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2238
Starters 1684
RB Value: 402

Draft position No. 6

Summary: The starter points take a jump here that we have not seen since the first pick with LT. Reason? Tom Brady (ADP-1.06).

Reggie Wayne (2.01) adds value in the second round, and Chad Johnson is there again in the third. I had to wait until the fourth round for my first RB, hurting that position. Regardless, there is a significant jump having Brady and the two WR’s. Edge James and LenDale White are the RB’s.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2385
Starters 1802
RB Value: 338

Draft position No. 7

Summary: All the players listed in pick No. 6 were available again here. Later in the draft, value drops with some other players.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2374
Starters 1798
RB Value: 338

Draft position No. 8

Summary: Now we shake things up again and go WR in the first round with Randy Moss (ADP-1.08). Tony Romo comes in the second round. We have a couple of new faces with Ronnie Brown (ADP-3.07) in the third and Anquan Boldin (ADP-4.01) in the fourth. LenDale White is still hanging out later for the second RB.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2219
Starters 1701
RB Value: 347

Draft position No. 9

Summary: This one runs the same as pick No. 8, except that Boldin is gone and Edge James becomes the fourth rounder. Dwayne Bowe is the second WR.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2227
Starters 1668
RB Value: 355

Draft position No. 10

Summary: This time we take the a QB again in the first round with Peyton Manning (ADP-2.02). A little reach, but he appeared the best available on the board. Terrell Owens (ADP-1.12) shows up in the second with Ronnie Brown and Anquan Boldin joining the group.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2255
Starters 1679
RB Value: 326

Draft position No. 11

Summary: Manning goes first here again, with Willis McGahee (ADP-2.06) in the second. Torry Holt (ADP-3.08) is there for the third round with Edge as the second RB and Roddy White as the second WR.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2254
Starters 1662
RB Value: 374

Draft position No. 12

Summary: Manning again…Larry Johnson (ADP-2.03) in the second. Torry Holt and Edge James also join the squad.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2232
Starters 1644
RB Value: 388

Now what do you say we give this a little more visual and compare the results from last weeks drafts to these.

Projected Points for Entire Roster

Pick	2RB Theory	Triplets Theory	Best Available
1	2347	2316	2326
2	2267	2289	2301
3	2253	2267	2282
4	2288	2300	2315
5	2225	2273	2238
6	2241	2350	2385
7	2262	2254	2374
8	2231	2240	2219
9	2244	2200	2227
10	2229	2253	2255
11	2221	2239	2254
12	2231	2228	2232

Projected Points for Starters:

Pick	2RB Theory	Triplets Theory	Best Available
1	1802	1727	1806
2	1689	1703	1771
3	1687	1725	1771
4	1751	1765	1762
5	1690	1758	1684
6	1641	1644	1802
7	1655	1643	1798
8	1633	1669	1701
9	1652	1656	1668
10	1649	1638	1679
11	1632	1647	1662
12	1647	1643	1664

Projected Points for Your Two Starting RBs

Pick	2RB Theory	Triplets Theory	Best Available
1	494	471	471
2	443	471	429
3	441	444	429
4	461	421	429
5	445	411	402
6	441	381	338
7	443	355	338
8	415	351	347
9	415	351	355
10	422	381	326
11	423	388	374
12	427	338	378

Observations:

• As expected, you're going to field your best RB tandem using the 2 RB theory.
• Tony Romo can mean money at the No. 5 position if you get a strong RB in the first. Triplets theory by far outscores the others in that position for starter points. Joe Addai and Chad Johnson joined him there.
• Taking Tom Brady with Trips at position No. 6 and then waiting until Round Three for RB only put Trips three points ahead of 2RB in starter points. Going Brady and then Wayne, Chad Johnson in the best available theory made a huge jump in starters. Moral of the story? HAVING to take a RB in there can hurt your team overall on Sunday. Looks like they can wait until the fourth.
• If you feel like you have to go RB in the first two rounds and don’t have the No. 1 pick, the No. 9 hole seemed to work for overall roster. Came in third for starters though.

Conclusion

We have had the 2 RB theory jammed in our heads for years. It causes many owners to panic on draft day and reach for a player that simply isn’t going to score as many points.

In some cases above, it was shown that waiting all the way to the fourth round to take a RB can be effective if you get the right players in the first three rounds.

I know, this would still be very hard to do without panic. It appears that if your not in the very top of the first round, 2 RB is not always the way to go.

The outright favorite here for putting up points on Sunday was taking the best fantasy player on the board five-sixths of the time.

Another goal in this was to see what strategies appeared to favor each draft position.

I hope this has helped, if not in your drafting this year, in killing some time crunching some fantasy numbers waiting for the season.

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