Uncle Charlie's Fantasy Roundup: Premature Add-Drop-Ulation
The best thing about being in a league of pretty smart baseball people is that they know how baseball works. Averages even out. ERA's will come down. The statistics, more than any other sport, are pretty good predictors.
Active baseball fans know that. Experienced fantasy owners also know that.
That's why, in Uncle Charlie's League , you won't see the flurry of activity that you see in other leagues. The trends that show up on the front page will not be reflected on the transactions page.
After less than 5% of the season has gone by (7/162 = 0.04), people are already dropping proven fantasy winners and adding unproven players on a hot streak. Sometimes this can pay off, but sometimes you just dropped Vernon Wells to add a closer for a team that isn't going to win many games this year (Cleveland), as Team 2 did very early this year.
The biggest add this week in the CBS fantasy baseball world were Dallas Braden (OAK), who struck out 10 in his season debut and who is now owned by 59 percent of owners, a change of 45 percent. Yet last year Braden only struck out batters at a rate of less than one per inning (0.6/IP). Braden has not yet been picked up in Uncle Charlie's League.
The second add of the week was Edgar Renteria, who got off to a torrid start for the Giants, at one point going 11-16 with four BBs to boot. His value jumped from 12 percent to 46 percent, but since then he has cooled off. Again, he's in his mid-30s, and in no way is expected to hit near .400 for a whole year. And, again, he has not been added in UCL.
Other big adds this week were Kelly Johnson (ARI), Chris Snyder (ARI), and Barry Zito (SF), none of which were added in UCL.
On the other side, dropping certain players because they've had a slow start can often be a mistake. Do you really drop Adam LaRoche because of his April, even if its consistent with his career in which he averages 26 HRs and 91 RBIs?
Do you drop Jonathan Sanchez (strikeout machine for SF) because he labored through his first start? No. You don't.
The biggest drops this year have to be all the people dropping David Ortiz, who has also had a history recently of starting very slow. Ortiz has NOT been dropped by F*ck StanfUrd.
Lastly, there has been a pretty big trade in UCL. Green Monster Hooligans, who had the fortune of drafting both Troy Tulowitzki and Derek Jeter, was overloaded at shortstop, and made out pretty good in a trade with Nuschler Lives.
GMH received Clay Buchholz, Chone Figgins, and Matt Wieters in return for Tulo and Jair Jurrjens. I think GMH won out on this one, because he added to his offense without losing anything at the shortstop position.
Both of these teams are struggling right now, with Nuschler in 10th and GMH in 11th place. This trade should add some pop to GMH's last place offense, and Jurrjens should help out Nuschler's last-place ERA.
GMH also had one of the more interesting moves of the week, preemptively adding Nationals mega-prospect Stephen Strasburg while he's still plowing through minor league hitting.
It should be interesting to see if anyone else takes a similar route, signing a prospect like Aroldis Chapman before he makes it to the bigs. I presume that Free Buster will make a run at one Gerald D. Posey, who is currently hitting .429 at AAA Fresno.
That's what's going on in Uncle Charlie's League this week, and remember that you can still get a great deal on the league.
1. FREE BUSTER
1. Yellow Hammers
3. Team 2 (-20)
4. F*ck StanfUrd (-26)
5. Team 8 (-26.5)
5. Team 10 (-26.5)
7. Boondocks (-31)
8. The Swinging Friar (-31.5)
9. ICHIROLL (-33)
10. Nuschler Lives (-42)
11. Green Monster Hooligans (-51.5)
12. Team 11 (54)
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