What Would the Optimal Mets Lineup Look Like?

So far this season the Mets have struggled to hit with runners in scoring position, alright they’ve struggled to hit period. It has lead to a lot of discussion about their lineup. Should Jose Reyes hit first or third? Where should Jeff Francoeur hit?

So I thought I would head over to Baseball Musings and try out their Lineup Analysis tool on this Mets lineup and see what they suggest.

It is important to note that to do this I plugged in the CHONE projections for the lineup. I’ve also included Rod Barajas behind the plate, Mike Jacobs at first, and Angel Pagan in center. Obviously this is going to change day-to-day and that this won’t be the everyday lineup, but the results we are going to get will give us the best lineup Jerry Manuel could use this week.

According to the Lineup Analysis tool this is the best lineup the Mets could put out this week:

David Wright 3B
Jason Bay LF
Angel Pagan CF
Mike Jacobs 1B
Jose Reyes SS
Rod Barajas C
Jeff Francoeur
Pitcher Spot
Luis Castillo 2B

According to the tool this lineup would manage to score 5.084 runs per game or 823 runs over 162 games. I know it sounds silly to suggest that David Wright should hit leadoff and Jason Bay in the no. 2 spot, but there are explanations behind it.

1. The first spot in the lineup is supposed to be your player with the highest OBP.
2. This spot is supposed to be the most balanced hitter as far as OBP and SLG goes.
3. The explanation for Pagan in the no. 3 spot is that this is the first spot you use one of your weaker hitters which you are supposed to spread out. Go here for a further explanation.
4. This should be your best power hitter. The reason why you don’t put Bay or Wright here is because the first two spots are more important.
5. This is your second most balanced hitter remaining.
6. This is the spot where you want your guy to have the biggest difference between OBP and SLG where power is more important because this hitter is supposed to drive in the leftovers.
7. A hitter similar to the no. 6 hitter.
8. This is supposed to be the worst hitter in the lineup. You don’t put him no. 9 because you don’t want him close to your two best hitters.
9. This is where you put the old school leadoff types with low OBP. Think Juan Pierre. This is because you don’t actually want guys with low OBP to get the most at bats, but it helps having speed in front of your best hitters.

The thing with lineups though, they are overrated. The difference between your typical lineup that the Mets will run out there will not be much worse than an optimal lineup. Although over the course of 162 games, if you can steal just one win it could make a difference. So while it is not that big a deal if Jerry Manuel thinks this is all BS, why not try to scratch out every run possible?

Finally, here is what you get once Carlos Beltran comes back:

David Wright 3B
Jason Bay LF
Jose Reyes SS
Mike Jacobs 1B
Carlos Beltran CF
Rod Barajas C
Jeff Francoeur RF
Pitcher Slot
Luis Castillo 2B

Now that is a good lineup. Over 162 games it would score 846 runs. Hurry back Beltran.

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