MLB Betting: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: April 9th 2010

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Free MLB Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays +102
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Early in the season, analysis is going to be very thin as the plays are going to be based on value for the most part. Betting baseball is about finding the value and finding the spots where teams have an advantage over the line and not necessarily over the other team. That may sound strange and against common betting theory but baseball is a completely different betting situation because of the moneyline aspect of it. The Yankees are coming off an off day after a series win at Boston to start the season. To have the Yankees as a road favorite here is no surprise and it presents excellent value in the home team. Tampa Bay lost last night to prevent a sweep against the Orioles and while we were on Baltimore in that game, we are switching sides but still getting underdog money. The Yankees send Javier Vazquez to the hill for his first start in pinstripes since 2004. This is his 13th season in the Majors and he is coming off his best season a year ago with the Braves as he posted an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.03, both career lows. That means he will be coming into this season with extremely high expectations. That puts a higher than usual price on his shoulders. Vazquez has had a rough time of it over his career against the Rays as he has a 4.36 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 12 career starts. Tampa Bay counters with David Price who did not come close to meeting expectations a season ago and that sends the value in the other direction and on our side. Price posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 23 starts but he was shouldered with a lot of hype and a lot of pressure early on and he was able to settle down in the second half. In his final 12 starts he had a 3.58 ERA to go along with a 7-3 record and he carried that over into a solid spring and that should carry over here. Some of his best work last season actually came against the Yankees as he went 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in three starts. This year will likely be a good bounceback season as the pressure is clearly off from the start. Going back to last season, the Rays went 13-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .620. 3* Tampa Bay Rays