Final Four NCAA Championship Game: Why Butler Will Beat Duke

No, this is not “Hoosiers,” the sequel, though there are probably fewer basketball fans and writers picking Butler to beat Duke than there are fans of the new healthcare bill.

The latest Vegas betting line has Duke beating Butler by 6.5 points in Monday's national championship game.

Now, I'm not a betting man. But if I were, I would certainly take the points.

The time to consider Butler a Cinderella team or an underdog has long since passed.

In fact, they were favorites to beat Michigan State on Saturday, which they did, in case you've been living under a rock.

Now, Michigan State is not Duke. They don't have the East Coast bias and affection that the college basketball world seems to have for Duke and Coach K.

That Dickie V. love must go a long way!

It's time to recognize Butler for what it is: a solid basketball team that makes up for what it may lack in well-known NBA star potential with a team concept that does nothing but win.

Why can Butler beat Duke on Monday night? Let me count the ways.

Butler has won 25 consecutive basketball games

That is nothing to sneeze at, even if the competition is in question. A team gains a lot of confidence from winning that many games in a row.

And while Duke is certainly confident as well, Butler doesn't even remember what it's like to lose.

Butler is virtually playing a home game

The entire Hoosier state is along for the ride. This year's Final Four is literally down the street from Butler. You can get there in five minutes.

The crowd will be behind Butler, which may have an effect on Duke, especially if they are down early and the crowd gets loud.

Defense

Both teams play solid defense. But the Bulldogs went nearly 11 second-half minutes without a basket and won.

Five games into this tournament and no opponent has gotten out of the 50s—the Bulldogs allowing a miserly 55.2 points a game in the NCAA tournament.

Force turnovers!

The key for Butler in moving on to its first title game was its ability to force turnovers and convert them into points. Butler won the turnover battle 16-8 and outscored Michigan State 20-2 off of turnovers.

Butler needs to get out in transition like they did against the Spartans. 12 of Butler's 15 transition points came off of turnovers.

All the pressure will be on Duke

Brad Stevens, at 33 years old, will be the second-youngest coach ever in a national championship game. He is too young to understand the historic implications of what Butler is trying to do.

As the Los Angeles Times reported, "If we focus and do our job, why can't we play for a national championship?" Stevens said, recalling his thought at the start of the season.

Simply put, this team doesn't care that they are the underdog. They know that nobody is picking them and that theirs is a great story even if they lose, so there is no pressure.

As Yahoo! Sports' Dan Wetzel states, "Butler in the finale is improbable. The last school from a smaller conference without a major football program to play for the title was Indiana State in 1979."

And while Saturday's game wasn't the prettiest, there are no style points.

Sure, Duke is big and physical. But one look at how Butler outmuscled the bigger, bulkier Spartans tells you everything you need to know about how they will handle Duke.

David vs. Goliath? Perhaps, but this David doesn't know it's not supposed to win.

That's exactly why they will.