2010 Florida Marlins Preview: Fishing for Improvement

The Marlins went 87-75 last season and finished in second place in the National League East. Looking forward to the new season, it is difficult to envision how they will be able to repeat last year’s record unless EVERYTHING goes right.

They lost one-time closer Matt Lindstrom and setup man Kiko Calero, as well as 1B Nick Johnson. The pitchers were replaced by Mike MacDougal and Derrick Turnbow - a hard-throwing duo possessing very little in the way of command. Johnson will be replaced by one of two rookies or, possibly, Red Sox 3B Mike Lowell (a deal that would allow them to move Cantu across the diamond to first base).

The lineup and rotation have a chance to be pretty good, while the bullpen and defense will almost-certainly be marginal, at best.

Key additions: P Mike MacDougal, P Seth McClung and P Derrick Turnbow

Key subtractions: P Kiko Calero, INF Ross Gload, OF Jeremy Hermida, 1B Nick Johnson, P Matt Lindstrom

Key Performer, 2010: Anibal Sanchez

Starting Rotation

RHP Josh Johnson (15-5, 3.23) recently signed the kind of big-money, multi-year contract that befits a staff ace, this in spite of the fact he made a total of only 18 starts in 2007 and 2008 combined (he had Tommy John surgery in 2007).

Is it a sign of desperation they agreed to this contract, or was it in response to criticism from the MLBPA and player agents that the club was pocketing MLB revenue sharing money without investing it back into payroll?

RHP Ricky Nolasco (13-9, 5.06) struggled mightily in the early going last season, but after an early-season demotion he returned to the big leagues and pitched extremely well (11-4, 3.82 in his last 22 starts).

Righty Anibal Sanchez (4-8, 3.87) has hige potential but is injury-prone (just 49 starts in the last four years). RHP Chris Volstad (9-13, 5.21) took a huge step backwards last year but is a good bet to rebound nicely in 2010.

Lefty Sean West (8-6, 4.79) will likely earn the fifth spot in the rotation after a decent rookie season. With that said, fireballer Andrew Miller (3-5, 4.84), one of the two primary prospects acquired from the Tigers in the Miguel Cabrera deal, could start to live up to his potential at any time. When (if) he does he could develop into a dominant force atop the rotation and could ensure West is displaced to the bullpen.

Bullpen

Leo Nunez does not possess closer’s skills (his ERA has never broken 4.00 and his strikeout rate is 7.0 for his career), but on THIS small market team he will serves as the closer. ‘Nuff said.

The departure of Calero leaves Mike MacDougal as their setup man / closer insurance… yes, the same guys who has a career walk rate of 6.0 / 9 IP. Yikes! LHPs Dan Meyer (3.09) and Reynal Pinto (3.23) are the best of the remaining mediocre crew.

Lineup

Across the outfield, National League Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan (.321, .390 OBP, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 8 SB) returns to left field and the top of the lineup card - the Marlins will need him to avoid a sophomore slump. With the departure of Hermida, Cameron Maybin (.250/4/13 in 176 AB) will get a chance to lock up the center field job, with Cody Ross (.270/24/90) sliding over to right.

The middle infield is well settled with 2B Dan Uggla (.243/31/90) and SS Hanley Ramirez (.324/24/106) combining to form one of the best 2B/SS tandems in the major leagues. Jorge Cantu (.289/16/100) will fill one of the corner slots - likely at third base.

Two rookies (Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison) are vying to win the first base job, although they both may be deemed to be still a year away. It’s possible the club could look outside the organization (Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell?) to play at one of the corners to give the youngsters another year of development in the minors.

John Baker (.271/9/50) will get the majority of the ABs because of his struggles against left-handers (.195 in his career)… thus, Ronny Paulino (.272/8/27) will still get his fair share of at-bats.

Outlook

As I said earlier, this team could contend for the playoffs if everything goes according to Hoyle… and I do mean EVERYTHING! But I can’t recall many situations in baseball where everything went well when it had to, so I wouldn’t bet on it happening in this instance.

The acquisition of someone like Mike Lowell would likely help the Marlins offense, but I don’t know that it’s necessarily in the best interest of the team over the long-term.

It says here the front office should have kept Calero to provide stability for the bullpen, as Nunez is bound to implode. Mike MacDougal? Really?

SOX1Forecast: 3rd place, 81-81.

Florida Marlins — Top Five Prospects

1. OF Mike Stanton
2. 1B Logan Morrison
3. 3B Matt Dominguez
4. 1B Gaby Sanchez
5. LHP Chad James