Washington Nationals Hoping To Avoid a Three-Peat

A year ago, the Washington Nationals were the worst team in baseball for the second consecutive season.

Over the course of those two seasons, the Nats are a combined 118-205. The question entering the 2010 season is whether they can avoid the three-peat.

In an effort to avoid the same-old, same-old, the organization made several changes to its roster this offseason—signing several free agents and preparing for the arrival of its blue-chip pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg.

Key Additions: P Matt Capps, 2B Adam Kennedy, C Ivan Rodriguez, P Jason Marquis, P Chien-Ming Wang

Key Subtractions: C Josh Bard, P Livan Hernandez, OF Austin Kearns, P Mike McDougal

Key Performer, 2010: RHP Stephen Strasburg

Starting Rotation

The pitching staff really doesn’t have a staff ace—yet—but Strasburg will arrive soon enough.

Lefty John Lannan (9-13, 3.88) has been named the Opening Day starter. While he has compiled back-to-back seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, some of his peripherals (K/9 and command) suggest his results exceed his abilities. Regardless, I tend to like any pitcher who can keep the ball on the ground the way Lannan has been able (52% ground ball rate during his three years in the big leagues).

Marquis (15-13, 4.04) joins the ballclub and slots behind Lannan in the rotation. He moves from Coors Field to a far better pitcher's park, but he will be hard-pressed to approach the 15 wins he accumulated in 2009.

Righty Craig Stammen has been named the club's #3 starter. He posted a 3.14 ERA through his first 14.1 IP this spring, and manager Jim Riggleman said he outpitched everyone in the rotation except Lannan in Florida.  The metrics indicate his success will revolve around his ability to throw strikes and record some strikeouts. The dip in his K/9 rate between '08 and '09 (from 5.9 to 3.7) is not a good omen -- he'd better improve on that aspect of his game in '10 if he wants to be even a .500-pitcher.

The back end of the rotation will be manned by righties Livan Hernandez and Garrett Mock. Hernandez was servicebale in the first half of 2009, but his second half was an absolute nightmare (4-9, 6.86 ERA, 1.73 WHIP)... after the all-star game his command was a miserable 1.5 and his RAR was a horrifying minus-29.8. It says here that HE will be the pitcher to go when Strasburg is ready. That's because Mock, 26, is part of the franchise's future, while Livan is ready for the glue factory. Mock's stats aren't very attractive, but his underlying metrics offer us a glimpse of the pitcher who he COULD become: his induced grounders at a 50% rate, his K/9 is nearly 7.5, and his xERA was just 4.07.

Bullpen

Closer Matt Capps comes to the nation’s capital from Pittsburgh, where he struggled to a 4-8 record and compiled a 5.80 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He recorded 27 saves in 32 chances.

Doesn’t that say it all? He struggled...in Pittsburgh!

In my opinion, the metrics DO NOT suggest that a reversal of fortune is in the offing. He has stopped throwing strikes (his ratio has dropped from 80% to 72% to 69% over the last three seasons), which has had the effect of increasing his walk rate from 0.8 to 2.8 per nine innings. And while he has reduced his fly ball rate, his HR-rate doubled from 2008 to 2009. And in an utterly ugly '09 season, his ERA, WHIP, hit percentage, strike percentage and HR/9 all worsened during the second half od last year.

But this isn’t a team that will compete anytime soon. Capps was brought in to be a one-year placeholder until youngster Drew Storen is ready to take over as the club’s closer (almost certainly by the end of the 2010 campaign).

The Nationals have brought in Brian Bruney (5-0, 3.92) from The Big Apple to serve as Capps’ primary setup man.

RHPs Tyler Clippard (4-2, 2.69), Jason Bergmann (2-4, 4.50), and Garrett Mock (3-10, 5.62), along with LHP Sean Burnett (2-3, 3.12) provide the middle relief for new manager Jim Riggelman.

It is not an especially effective corps of relievers.

Lineup

CF Nyger Morgan (.307, 3 HR, 39 RBI, 42 SB) is a dynamic, fleet leadoff hitter who has demonstrated an ability to get on base. While he does not walk quite as often as the club might like—his patience at the plate improved last season.

Rookie Ian Desmond has been named the starting shortstop. He'll bat second, though he should be batting near the bottom of the batting order until he gets acclimated to the big league game.  I know he hit .280 in his introduction to the major leagues last year, but that number is exaggerated - he had 10 hits in his first 17 AB and benefitted from an extremely high hit percentage (36%). He'll likely struggle to hit more than .250 in his rookie campaign -- which is serviceable, but not the stuff of a guy hitting second in the batting order.

3B Ryan Zimmerman (.292,/33/106) and 1B Adam Dunn (.267/38/105) make up one of the more potent 3-4 combinations in the league. Dunn is a free agent at the end of the season and could prove to be trade fodder once July rolls around.

LF Josh Willingham (.260/24/61) extends the lineup, but after him the lineup may struggle.

C Ivan Rodriguez (.249/10/47), 2B Adam Kennedy (.289, 11 HR, 63 RBI, 20 SB) and RF Willie Harris (.235/7/27) fill out the bottom of a sub-standard lineup. Kennedy had a nice resurrection last year with the Athletics, and signed with the Nats for short money.

Outlook

The ballclub is almost guaranteed to be improved on its 2009 campaign (though I said that last year and they proved me wrong).  That said, the organization has started to accrue prospects and there is reason for hope in the District of Columbia.

Desmond, 24, played well at Double-A and Triple-A last season and may have started to figure things out. Strasburg and Storen provide bookend power arms for the pitching staff and may both be in the majors by the end of the season.

It seems very likely that Washington will finish 2010 in the NL East basement yet again, but it is also possible that the team will be able to fight its way into fourth place—it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that the Mets could fall that far.

SOX1Forecast

68-94, fifth place

Washington Nationals Top Five Prospects

1. P Stephen Strasburg
2. P Drew Storen
3. SS Ian Desmond
4. C Derek Norris
5. 1B Chris Marrero