SEC Basketball Postseason Predictions

The Final Countdown

The SEC basketball season has been lackluster, to say the least. This weekend provided some small degree of excitement with the takedown of Kentucky at Knoxville. That victory probably sealed a NCAA post-season bid for the Volunteers in the 5-8 seed range, rather than the 9 -12 seed they were headed for without the win.

Vandy over Arkansas was not a surprise and the margin of victory could have been better. Though it was Kevin Stallings first win in Fayetteville, it was not an unexpected hurdle for him to finally make for this season.

The key to victory was bottling up Courtney Fortson since Michael Washington was hampered by a sore ankle. Vandy stuck to their standard game plan and substituted early and often to keep the team fresh.

Alabama had another signature loss for the year, losing a second half lead in the waning minutes of the game to lose by three in the last thirty seconds to Ole Miss. Mississippi State actually surprised some by winning on the road at South Carolina. The rare West victory over an East Division team gives the West members a glimmer of hope for the upcoming SEC Tournament.

The UGA victory over East rival Florida was a bit of an upset except that Georgia has played exceptionally well at home and have defended the hardwood at Stegman Coliseum in each of their last four home games. We will soon see how well they match up against one of the best in the land when UK comes to Athens next week.

Auburn over LSU was only a surprise to sportswriters in Arkansas, who seemed to think that LSU had finally found the solution to their problems when they took down the Hogs last week. They are still the same LSU team, lacking confidence and without a rudder.

The regular season comes to a close next week. It is doubtful that UK will lose and therefore should stay one game ahead of Vanderbilt to win the East. Tennessee and Florida are tied for third while USC and UGA are tied for last in the East.

In the West, Mississippi State will be the clear winner. Ole Miss and Arkansas are tied in conference play but the Rebels have a much better record on the season standing at 19-9 while the Hogs are 14-15.

Auburn, Alabama and LSU will finish their season during the SEC Tournament unless by some miracle, they find a way to win the conference tournament trophy. If you have a dollar to bet against the Vegas odds, you could become a millionaire if one of the three should win. It is that hopeless.

Coaches on the Hot Seat

John Pelphrey will get a bye this season but next year will make or break his career at Arkansas. Rick Stansbury has revived the fan base with a mediocre season. The Bulldog fans are happy with the West Division crown and a bid to the NCAA. They are one of the last in and may likely be one of the first out of the Big Dance.

Anthony Grant gets a pass. Having said that, the way that Alabama has lost this season is uncharacteristic, historically. If this is the kind of change that Grant was talking about, particularly if it happens again next year, his career at Alabama will be short lived.

Mark Fox has shown that he can coach and can win at home for the UGA fans, but this season overall is a bust. Georgia expects better. They have one of the best talent pools in the Atlanta area and must tap into the strength the city offers to the Southeast. He and Philip Pearson may just get it done but it hasn't happened yet.

Trent Johnson must die (a play on the John Tucker movie for the uninformed) for LSU to make a move. The administration won't admit they made a bad move in ridding themselves of John Brady too soon and settling for worse. This season can't be blamed on Brady. Nobody has a season this bad and gets away with it except Johnson.

Jeff Lebo at Auburn has seen his last days. The administration has built a palace and needs to sell tickets to fill the place and pay the bill. The boosters have been hit hard for more money and you can't raise prices (donations and tickets) and expect a 5-9 conference record to be the prize. Lebo is gone or the AD, Jay Jacobs is, one or the other. I don't think Jacobs is going anywhere.

For the Gamecocks, Darrin Horn is in his second season. A 14-14 season record, 5-9 in the SEC is not good enough. The win against Kentucky was a shot in the arm but it was all downhill afterwards. He will have to do better or he will be on a job search after next season, as well.

SEC Tournament Prediction

If a West team passes round one, it will be a shock. Florida, South Carolina and Georgia should take down the lower tier of the West which is composed of Auburn, Alabama and LSU. A win by Auburn or Alabama is possible but not probable.

Arkansas may in fact defeat UGA in round one but the Bulldogs won't go down without a fight. Arkansas defeated Georgia earlier in the season in Athens. The Hogs will have the advantage but confidence will only take you so far. Georgia is finding their rhythm and if there is a round one upset, this is the one to pick.

Round two will pit West 1 against East 4, which should be Mississippi State versus Florida. State wins, Vanardo will swat the Bulldogs into round three. West two, Ole Miss will likely play South Carolina (or Auburn). Ole Miss will lose and the Rebs will let Andy Kennedy go after the season ends.

Kentucky will advance along with Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Round three will pit Mississippi State against the East. Mississippi State will lose. The Finals will be pit East against East, probably UK against Vandy. This will be an excellent matchup. Kentucky won both regular season matchups, including a 58-56 nail-biter in Nashville.

The neutral court win in Atlanta will set the stage for a one seed for Kentucky heading into the NCAA tournament. A loss to Vanderbilt will probably drop UK to a two or three seed.

NCAA Bids

Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Mississippi State are in the field of 65 for the tournament. Florida is on the bubble. One win may be enough for the Gators to advance, two wins will get them in the field. Ole Miss has an outside chance but will likely play in the NIT.

This was not a banner year for SEC basketball and it outright sucked for the West Division. Improvements must be made for national respect to be gained in future seasons. Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are expected to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Beyond that, who knows.

The Kentucky faithful expect a national championship at the end of the year. I don't see it at all. They have the skill and talent, but they don't have the depth or experience. In fact, I would not be surprised to see Vanderbilt to go further than UK, even if they lose to UK in the SEC tournament finale.

Tennessee is a wild card. They have great wins against Kansas and Kentucky but have lost seven games this season. They will be dangerous but will eventually fizzle out against a quality opponent, particularly if that opponent is from the Big East. If there is a surprise in first or second round, it could be a loss by UT to a lesser quality team.

For now, that about sums it up. I may need to revise this article following the SEC tournament. All to do now is wait and see. Enjoy the last week of regular season play and prepare yourself for March Madness. Ain't it great!