What Teams Can Compete for the SEC Championship in 2010?

While the anticipation of spring practice and the expectations of the 2010 college football season build, let us explore what makes an SEC Championship team.

What is alike and what is different with each one? Let us take a quick look and see.

In 2009, the SEC Championship was won by an Alabama team that many have claimed was one of the best all-time teams. Let us see how this team compares to other SEC Championship teams.

Team (Offensive Rank; Defensive Rank)

2009 Alabama: (42nd, 5,642 yds; 2nd, 3,418 yds)

2000 Florida: (24th, 5,024 yds; 12th, 4,152 yds)

2001 LSU: (11th, 5,418 yds; 75th, 4,753 yds)

2002 Georgia: (49th, 5,389 yds; 15th, 4,249 yds)

2003 LSU: (31st, 5,857 yds; 1st, 3,528 yds)

2004 Auburn: (25th, 5,469 yds; 5th, 3,609 yds)

2005 Georgia: (49th, 5,085 yds; 18th, 4,075 yds)

2006 Florida: (19th, 5,545 yds; 6th, 3,576 yds)

2007 LSU: (26th, 6,152 yds; 3rd, 4,043 yds)

2008 Florida: (15th, 6,231 yds; 9th, 3,994 yds)

Average: (29th, 5,581 yds; 16th, 3,939 yds)

What does this tell us? Any team that produces over 5,500 yards of offense and holds their opponent under 4,000 yards has a good chance of winning out.

What teams met these goals in 2009? Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, and Alabama all had more than 5,500 yards of offense. Alabama, Florida, and South Carolina held their opponents under 4,000 yards of total offense. 

This leaves us with a list of Alabama and Florida that met both goals. They were the divisional champions. This means we have a good predicting factor. Now let us apply this to the 2010 season.

How much would each team need to improve to get into the goal range?

Alabama and Florida will simply need to hold their own.

Auburn would need to improve from allowing 4,863 yards by 863 yards, or 67 yards per game.

Arkansas would need to improve from 5,215 yards allowed by 1,215 yards, or 93 yards per game.

South Carolina would need to improve from 4,516 total offensive yards to 5,500 yards, or 75 yards per game of offense.

In my opinion, the only other possible contender is Georgia; they allowed 4,412 yards on defense and produced 4,708 yds offensively. They would need to improve 792 yards on offense and reduce the allowed yards from 4,412 yards by 412 yards to compete. 

Let us delve a little deeper and see where these teams stand for 2010.

Alabama had a 582 yard buffer on defense, or 42 yards per game. They lost eight starters off their defense and will have to start true freshmen in some positions in 2010.

They had a 142 yard buffer on offense, or 11 yards per game. They lost their two most experienced offensive linemen and the rest of the unit returns intact.

Florida lost the heart of their offense and defense. They will have to totally rebuild both units for 2010. They had a 910 yard buffer on offense and a 464 yard buffer on defense. This is 65 yards on offense and 34 yards on defense per game. 

Auburn returns the vast majority of their offensive and defensive units for 2010. They look to be set to upgrade in every position open. They would need to improve on defense by 67 yards per game. They seem set to easily meet these goals.

South Carolina returns most of their offensive core as well as many key players on defense. They need to improve by 75 yards per game on offense. This will be a tall order. They will also need to perform extremely well on defense as they only have a buffer of seven yards per game.

Arkansas returns the vast majority of the offensive and defensive units for 2010. They seem set to easily meet the offensive goals.

The defensive goals are another matter. They must trim 93 yards per game from their opponents. This is going to be a difficult task.

Georgia has to replace much of their defense and will be changing defensive schemes for 2010. They have many of their key players on offense back. They would need to improve 61 yards on offense and trim 32 yards from their opponents on defense to meet the goals. 

How important is it for a team to meet these goals? You can be the judge. The only SEC Championship teams that did not come within six yards per game of these goals were: 

In 2000, 2001, and 2002, the SEC Champion did not meet these goals on defense. The wost miss was by 57 yards per game. 

The 2005 Georgia team did not meet them on offense. 

2002 Georgia came within 20 yards per game of these goals and was 13-1. The 2000 Florida, 2001 LSU, and 2005 Georgia teams all had multiple season losses. There is little chance for a team that does not meet these goals.

2010 chances seem to bracket out into the following groups.

Alabama, Auburn, and Florida all have a good chance of meeting both goals. 

Arkansas and South Carolina have a decent chance, but it will be tough.

Georgia will have to make astonishing progress to meet both goals.

Some will ask where is LSU. They would have to improve 1,541 yards on offense or 119 yards per game and cut their opponents 20 yards per game on defense to make these goals. Their chances are less than the above teams. It would take a jump of 70 places in offense nationally. 

Auburn jumped 92 places from 2008 to 2009. It is possible to see LSU make these goals, but the chances are simply lower.