Matt Kemp: Fourth in Fantasy Baseball Roto Drafts?

Eric StashinJan 28, 2010

Personally, I don’t see any scenario where Kemp would figure into the top four players selected on fantasy draft day, but I’ve heard rumblings of people willing to do it in rotisserie leagues, ahead of Ryan Braun and Chase Utley. Note, the top three include Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez.

I like Kemp as much as the next guy. I ranked him as the second outfielder off the board and a surefire first-round pick, but taking him in the top four just seems curious to me, even if you put Ryan Braun in the top three.

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He’s a stud offensive player, as he displayed early and often in 2009:

606 AB
.297 AVG (180 Hits)
26 HR
101 RBI
97 R
34 SB
.352 OBP
.490 SLG
.349 BABIP

There is no number there that I don’t think he could repeat.

He’s a career .299 hitter.

The power came courtesy of a very realistic 14.4 percent HR/FB (his career mark is 13.6 percent) and 38.3 percent flyball rate.

He stole 35 bases in 2008.

He’ll be joined in the lineup with Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier, providing plenty of opportunities to both score and drive in runs.

He’s a star and we all know it, but what is the justification for taking him over someone like Braun (or Utley, for that matter)?

Braun's statistics include:

He has home run totals of 34, 37, and 32 in the last three seasons.

The 32-homer year (2009) came courtesy of a 34.1 percent flyball rate, whereas he had been at 44 percent his first two seasons. He has a realistic chance of reaching 40 in 2010.

Braun posted a career average of .308, including seasons of .324 and .320. He posted 114 RBI and 113 runs in 2009.

Considering he shares a lineup with Prince Fielder, he should easily be just as good as Kemp in both categories, meaning they both should push 100/100.

The only place where Kemp has the advantage is speed, though Braun is no slouch there, having stolen 15, 14, and 20 bases over the past three seasons. Is he going to reach the 30-plus plateau? Probably not, but he more than makes up for his “shortfall” there with the immense power he possesses.

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t see it.

Braun is an absolute stud player and that’s not a knock on Kemp. While Kemp could push 30/30, Braun could go 40/20. With the ability to get speed late in your draft, I’m more than happy to take a player who helps there but has tremendous power as opposed to the player with better speed and less power.

What about you? If you had the choice, which of the two players would you take and why?

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Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including: