Good or Bad: Which Juan Pierre Will the Chicago White Sox Get?

Sox Fest has come and gone, but the talk of the Chicago White Sox that it inspired remains here in Chicago.

Recently, Greg Walker has pronounced center fielder Alex Rios as "fixed" (after seeing only five swings in a batting cage) and some Sox fans were relieved—others, upset—to hear that slugging DH Jim Thome would not be returning in 2010.

Being all but done with football, we decided to take some time on Monday's show to talk about Chicago's American League team, and how they project to fare in the upcoming season.

We didn't get to discuss it much on the show, but after some renewed commenting activity on another Bleacher Report article of mine on the offseason moves by the Sox, as well as some great discussion on a White Sox message board I frequent, my thoughts turned to the new lead-off hitter on the south side: Juan Pierre.

When he was acquired from the Dodgers in mid-December, many Sox fans were excited at the prospect of Pierre leading off for the team in 2010, as he was coming off a great year in Los Angeles and was a definite upgrade in both speed and defense over the departed Scott Podsednik.

Kenny Williams was lauded for his cunning and his ability to get the best option available for what the Sox needed, while Pierre was projected to be a top contributor to the 2010 Sox.

However, I had a feeling that many Sox fans were overrating the abilities of Pierre—as many other people have done throughout his career (see: Plaschke, Bill)—as well as what the White Sox will receive from him in 2010 and beyond. 

So I set out to see if there are any reasons to believe that Pierre will not be as good as advertised for the Sox, and if any of those doubts are quantifiable. What I found was interesting, to say the least.

But first, let's focus on the Juan Pierre that many people have imagined in their head: the high average, high on-base, and speedy outfielder that will be able to get on and move himself over through use of the stolen base.

Many Sox fans agree (including White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen) that these abilities will not only be consistent contributions from Pierre, but will also add an almost invaluable dynamic to the White Sox offense.

This is true, to a certain extent.

Pierre has had multiple seasons in which his high on-base percentage (OBP) and ability to steal bases have combined (with other things) to produce an offensive weapon that is at or near the top of the league at his position.

Pierre had a VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of 31.4 in 2003 and 36.2 in 2004, and he contributed, respectively, eight and 13 runs above players at the same position (RAP) in those years. And in 2009, Pierre contributed two wins above replacement (WARP) in only 425 plate appearances with the Dodgers.

So Pierre is a great player, and the Sox are lucky to have his production at the top of their lineup, right?

Not necessarily.

There are other aspects of Pierre's career that raise questions as to what was actually responsible for the great seasons associated with his abilities and level of contribution.

EqA is a metric that offers us an insight as to what the whole of Pierre's abilities contributed to his team in a given season. It is rated just like batting average, so an EqA in the .260-.270 range is average, with .300 being the level of an all-star, and below .260 being below average. EqA is adjusted for league and park effects, and it also takes into account stolen bases, making it a great match for a player like Pierre.

Pierre has had an EqA in the above-average range only three times in his career ('03, '04, and '09), and those are the years most people like to herald as indicative of the "true" Juan Pierre. On the other end of the spectrum, Pierre has had a sub-.260 EqA a total of seven times in his career, with his career average being a slightly below average .257.

But what about those great seasons, did they just "not happen"?

No, of course not, but it appears that there may be other things at work that determine how great of a season Juan Pierre has, and the answer lies in a metric most people associate with pitchers: batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

BABIP is not as random a metric with hitters as it is with pitchers, as it is assumed that hitters have control over what type of batted ball they put into play, be it a bunt, ground ball, line drive, or fly ball. And those types of batted balls each have their own dynamic probability of being fielded for an out or a hit.

Therefore, a hitter's BABIP is less a measuring stick for "luck" than it is for pitchers, though if viewed in concert with other data (specifically, the percentage of a hitter's fly balls, line-drives, etc), legitimate concerns of a "lucky" run of batted balls can be raised.

For instance, let's look at the types of hits Pierre had (in line-drive [LD], ground ball [GB], and fly-ball [FB] percentages) in both 2008 and 2009 along with his BABIP's for that year.

Year        LD%   GB%   FB%   BABIP

In those years, similar percentages of balls put into play by Pierre were line-drives and ground balls and fly-balls, yet hits BABIP in 2009 was 31 points higher than it was in 2008 despite having similar batted-ball percentages in similar amounts of plate appearances.

That difference in BABIP was reflected in his batting lines for each season, though:

Year      AVG   OBP   SLG   WARP

One thing that has not been mentioned is Pierre's stolen base totals across these two seasons. Juan stole 40 bases in 2008 and 30 in 2009, being caught 12 times in each year.

So then, if Pierre's base-stealing abilities are going to be as valuable to the Sox as many would want to believe, then accounting for these would surely make Pierre's 2009 season more valuable and his 2008 season would certainly be more than just above replacement-level. 

Looking at EqA, RAP and WARP, we can see that Pierre's 2009 season (.278 EqA, 4 RAP, and 2.0 WARP) was as valuable as can be, and his stolen-base totals in 2008 were not enough to overcome his inability to get on-base and hit for even some semblance of power, as his EqA was a below-average .248 and his RAP (runs above average at the position) was an unimpressive -11.

In fact, in seasons where his BABIP was in line with the league average ('02, '05, '06, '07 and '08 are prime examples), Pierre sees a tremendous drop-off, in the form of decidedly below-average totals and rates, in categories such as RAP and marginal lineup value rate (MLVr).

And his total production in seasons where his low BABIP affects other statistics, while they may look marginally impressive from time to time (like his 2.9 WARP in 2006), are more the product of Pierre being the primary lead-off hitter for his respective team and thus receiving a large percentage of his team's plate-appearances rather than actual above-average offensive contribution rates.

Pierre's career is littered with seasons like 2008, where his league-average BABIP lead to unimpressive totals and rates in other categories; totals that his base-stealing abilities were unable to make up for.

So then the question for 2010 remains, which Juan Pierre will the White Sox receive? If he is aided by a well above-average BABIP and maintains his batted-ball percentages, Pierre will be a solid addition for the White Sox, no doubt.

However the majority of his seasons in the MLB have been unaided by a large BABIP, and when that happens, Juan Pierre becomes not only not a great player, but a below average one at that.

-Jonathan Platek