Fighting for Fifth: Toronto Raptors at the Crossroads

Before the season started, Bryan Colangelo and the Raptors media representatives called for 50 wins this season .

But after looking at all the changes Bryan Colangelo had made to the Raptors roster and comparing them to the 2006-07 Colangelo remake of the team, brothersteve’s blog put out a 47 win prediction.

And based on how the Raptors started and then came together as the season progressed, the parallels to that amazing 2006-07 run are there.

The 2006-07 Raptors team started out that season with a 7-13 record before pulling it all together at 22-22 and finishing out the season on a 25-13 run.

So what will it take to match the Raptors best ever season win total again this year?

The 2009-10 Raptors did start out their season with an ugly 7-13 record and last night at home against Milwaukee, the Raptors earned an important win to bring the team back to .500 at 22-22.

The players, the media, and the fans have been waiting for the big soft section in the new year to start. Many people saw this as Raptors opportunity to salvage the season.

And except for Sunday’s home game against the LA Lakers and a home game against Cleveland on February 26, all of the games in between are very winnable.

Those 11 games between the Lakers and the Cavs will define the Raptors 2009-10 season:

Eight home games against teams that struggle winning on the road.

Miami and Portland providing the only teams that should challenge the Raptors on their home court.

Three winnable road games against New York, Indiana, and New Jersey.

Two winnable back-to-back series.

If the Raptors can do what needs to be done and win 10 of these 11 games, a 47 win season remains within grasp and a shot at fifth is possible.

And sure, the Raptors could make up a loss or two by beating a contender later in the season, but failure to win at least eight of these games returns the Raptors to fighting it out for one of the last two playoff spots in the East.

If the Raptors split these next twelve games, Bryan Colangelo may be forced into considering one of those big trades that have been so frequently speculated about.

The Raptors season isn't over at the end of February and they will still have plenty of work left to do, but if they can't get it done now, they won't get it done later.

The road to a 47 win season and a shot at fifth place is laid out below and the Raptors are good enough to be a 47 win team.  They just have to do it.

	Opponent	Win/Loss	Record
January			21-22
Fri 22	vs Milwaukee	W	22-22
Sun 24	vs LA Lakers	L	22-23
Wed 27	vs Miami	W	23-23
Thu 28	@ New York	W	24-23
Sun 31	vs Indiana	W	25-23
February
Tue 02	@ Indiana	W	26-23
Wed 03	vs New Jersey	W	27-23
Sun 07	vs Sacramento	W	28-23
Wed 10	vs Philadelphia	W	29-23
Wed 17	vs Memphis	W	30-23
Fri 19	@ New Jersey	W	31-23
Sat 20	vs Washington	W	32-23
Wed 24	vs Portland	L	32-24
Fri 26	vs Cleveland	L	32-25
Sun 28	@ Oklahoma City	L	32-26
March
Mon 01	@ Houston	W	33-26
Fri 05	vs New York	W	34-26
Sun 07	vs Philadelphia	W	35-26
Tue 09	@ LA Lakers	L	35-27
Wed 10	@ Sacramento	L	35-28
Sat 13	@ Golden State	W	36-28
Sun 14	@ Portland	L	36-29
Wed 17	vs Atlanta	L	36-30
Fri 19	vs Oklahoma City	W	37-30
Sat 20	@ New Jersey	W	38-30
Mon 22	@ Minnesota	W	39-30
Wed 24	vs Utah	W	40-30
Fri 26	vs Denver	W	41-30
Sun 28	@ Miami	L	41-31
Mon 29	@ Charlotte	L	41-32
Wed 31	vs LA Clippers	W	42-32
April
Sat 03	@ Philadelphia	W	43-32
Sun 04	vs Golden State	W	44-32
Tue 06	@ Cleveland	L	44-33
Wed 07	vs Boston	L	44-34
Fri 09	@ Atlanta	L	44-35
Sun 11	vs Chicago	W	45-35
Mon 12	@ Detroit	W	46-35
Wed 14	vs New York	W	47-35