Big News in Fog City

Somehow, and against all expectations, the Giants have resigned Bengie Molina to a one-year deal for a very reasonable $4.5 million.  I’m thrilled that Bengie will be coming back to San Fran for one more season.

The McCovey Chronicles doesn’t like the signing, mainly on the theory that the Giants wildly overrate Molina as an offensive player.  Grant makes some good points, but I’m not sure that he’s being entirely fair to the Giants.  The Giants batted Bengie clean-up the last two seasons because they really didn’t have anyone significantly better for that slot.  Even with the emergence of Pablo Sandoval, he’s best used as the No. 3 hitter (assuming he’s really the hitter he looked like in 2009), and the Giants still need a true clean-up hitter.

Where Bengie bats in 2010, I think, will have a lot to do with how well Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff hit.  That being said, there’s a good chance that Bengie will get a significant number of ABs in the No. 4 slot, because there’s a reasonable possibility that both DeRosa and Huff will tank.  Even if they have strong seasons, neither is really a number four hitter.

Still, I like this signing for two reasons.  First, Bengie really was the best catcher available on the free agent market.  O.K., his on-base percentage in 2009 (.285) was terrible, but his OPS in 2009 (.727) was one of the best among the free agent catchers who played regularly.  Miguel Olivo was the only regular catcher among the free agents with a significantly higher 2009 OPS (.782) and his 2009 OBP (.292) was nearly as awful.  Also, over the course of their careers, Bengie’s OBP is 30 points higher than Olivo’s (.308 to .278).

I note that Greg Zaun had a fine year with the bat in 2009, as least as far as the 2009 free agent catchers go.  However, he had roughly 300 fewer plate appearances than Bengie last year, and he’ll be 39 in 2010.  In other words, he’s hardly a sure thing, and there’s virtually no possibility that he’ll play more than a hundred games at catcher in 2010.

Bengie isn’t the second coming of Josh Gibson, but how many teams are getting a .727 OPS in 500 or more plate appearances from their top one or two catchers?  Not many, I suspect.

Second, Buster Posey really needs another two to four months at AAA Fresno to get his professional feet under him.  It’s a lot to ask of any position player to be the major league starter after only one full minor league season, and it’s particularly tough to ask that of your catcher.  Now, Posey will be promoted to the Show when he’s truly ready.  In the mean time, Bengie is a proven commodity, who will almost certainly be at least an adequate starting catcher for the first half of 2010.

Yes, I hope the Giants drop Bengie in the batting order in 2010.  However, there’s still something to be said for signing the best available player at the position for a one-year deal at a bargain price, even if you bat him higher in the line-up than he deserves.

The other big Giants news of the day is that Tim Lincecum is asking for $13 million in arbitration and the Giants are offering $8 million.  While the conventional wisdom seems to be that some kind of deal will be worked out, my feeling is that Lincecum is more likely than not to win if the arbitrator has to choose between these two numbers.

The arbitration record to date is Ryan Howard’s $10 million award.  After two consecutive Cy Young awards, not to mention the big money that starting pitchers are commanding even in the current market (the Twins just agreed to pay Carl Pavano $7 million in 2010), the Giants should have come a lot closer to $10 million with their offer.

Frankly, you never know what arbitrators will do, and from personal experience I know that different arbitrators can reach different results on the same facts.  However, it’s pretty hard to look at what Lincecum has done the last two seasons and say that’s not worth $13 million on a one-year contract.

In fact, the only pitcher I can think of in recent memory who’s had back-to-back years like Lincecum so early in his career is Roger Clemens in 1986 and 1987.  That’s quite a while ago now.  Ultimately, though, I’d be surprised if the Giants don’t lock Lincecum into a long guaranteed contract this off-season, given the recent extensions given to Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez.