Toronto Raptors: Defense Has Them Halfway to the Playoffs

The Toronto Raptors closed out their 41st game of the season in style, embarrassing the Western Conference’s second-place team, the Dallas Mavericks, in a 110-88 beating.

A fitting finish for the official halfway point of the Raptors' season that brought Toronto to one game over .500 and into a virtual fifth-place tie with Miami.

As expected—with a team consisting of nine new players and a rookie head coach—the Raptors got off to a rather inconsistent start to the 2009-10 season.

Players finding their roles, coaches discovering what players were capable of, and what line-ups and play calls would be effective all contributed to some wild swings in the team’s performance.

And after the 20th game of the season, the Raptors' issues exploded into the media with accusations of bad coaching and players not learning from their mistakes.

Giving up that league season-high 146 points to Atlanta marked a low point for the franchise, but the angst it produced helped the team rally around themselves and their coach.

And a team that was built around offensive-minded players began to realize it was their ability to play defense that would win them games.

The Raptors' season can best be looked at in 10-game segments, each segment defining—in its own way—what has made the team either successful or brutally bad.

The Raptors began the season in front of a boisterous packed house and rolled over the heavily favored Cavaliers 101-91. And in each of the Raptors five wins in their first 10 games, the Raptors held their opponents to under 100 points.

Unfortunately in four of the Raptors' losses, opposing teams rolled up over 110 points per game, and the Raptors ended the first 10-game stretch surrendering 105.9 points on average to go 5-5.

The next 10 games were disastrous for the Raptors: finishing with only two wins.

And the team deserved its fate, giving up an unbelievable 116 points per game on average and only winning when they managed to score 120 points or better.

Giving up a 110 points or more seven times out of 10 is not a winning formula. The five-game losing steak—highlighted by the Atlanta fiasco—was the inevitable result.

After a team meeting and a day off after Atlanta, the Raptors' fortunes began to change.

In the next 10-game segment, the Raptors went 6-4, holding teams under 100 points five times once again.

But the ACC crowds reflected the pessimism the previous 10 games had produced.  Attendance was down, crowds were quiet, and the media was blaming anyone available for the team’s lack of success.

The Raptors still gave up 110 points or more in four of the games, but this time the good outweighed the bad, and the Raptors held opponents to an average of just 100.9 points.

Yes, the Raptors' schedule did soften over these games, and the only tough team the Raptors beat was Houston.  But still, the improved defensive numbers were a sure sign of progress.

Not that anyone following the team appeared to notice. Almost all people wanted to discuss were those four bad defensive efforts and to lament about how the Raptors won when they held opponents under 100 points. 

If only they could do “that” more often.

In the most recently completed 10-game stretch, the Raptors finally put it all together with the following:

1. The team won seven of 10 games.
2. They held opponents to just 98.3 points per game.
3. They kept teams under 100 points four times.
   

And this time, only one team scored over 110 points. That was Boston.

The schedule was genuinely tough, as well. The Raptors defeated some of the leagues' best teams in San Antonio and Orlando. And two of the Raptors losses were to Boston.

To cap off the halfway point in the season, the Raptors held the high-powered Dallas Mavericks to just 88 points.

A few wins against high-powered teams revived the crowds at the ACC. On Sunday playing Dallas, the building was loud, and the fans expected their team to win. Positive energy filled the building, and the Raptors played better the longer the game went on.

Over 41 games, the Raptors are the fifth-worst team in the league defensively, surrendering 104.9 points per game. And they still take a lot of heat in the media and doubt from fans about their inability to keep opponents off the score sheet.

But if one takes out that one bad 10-game period, the Raptors are giving up a more respectable 101.5 points, and just looking at the last 11 games, this drops to 97.4 points per game. 

No one could say that the Raptors' last 11 games were not against a typical schedule of good and bad NBA teams.

And the Raptors' season scoring average of 103.6 points per game was only slightly lower over the past 11 games (about 103.3 points).

If the Raptors can maintain a scoring differential close to 5.9 points (103.3-97.4), they will rank in the top four teams in the NBA.

And while that might be a lot to hope for, it only takes a points differential of over 3.53 to be one of the top four teams in either conference right now.

Dallas is the only top four team with a points differential below 3.5.

As earlier predicted, the Raptors are bouncing back in 2009-2010.

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Prediction: The Raptors to match their 2006-2007 win total of 47 this season and secure a fourth or fifth place finish in their conference.

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The Raptors are now halfway to a 2010 playoff appearance!

It is time to cheer for your Raptors!