Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitching: Same Faces in New Places

Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies  

There isn't much leg work to talk about here with Halladay.  He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for what seems like a decade now and with a move to the National League it's possible he could get better. 

He is an absolute workhorse who has won 20 games twice in his career and has over 200 strikeouts in two straight seasons.  He should be one of the first five or six starters off OF the board on Draft Day, and you have to figure that as long as he stays healthy his ERA will be under 3.00.  It seems like a no brainer that Halladay will have a huge year. 

Cliff Lee, SP, Seattle Mariners

Lee followed up his AL Cy Young award winning season with another stellar year, despite having a win-loss record of just 14-13.  Lee goes deep into games, and last season he had six complete games to go with 181 strikeouts in just over 231 innings. 

He returns to the American League to a vastly improving Seattle team where he will regularly face offensive powerhouses in Texas and Anaheim.  I still think that you can't expect him to repeat the success he had in 2008, but Lee will still be an elite starting pitcher and should be one of the first ten to twelve starters taken.  Look for 17 wins, 175 strikeouts, and an ERA right around 3.00.

John Lackey, SP, Boston Red Sox

Perhaps the biggest prize of the free agent market, the Red Sox got themselves a bona fide workhorse and a guy that you know will battle out there every five days and who will eat up innings.  He has been dealing with a bit of injuries the past two seasons, but that was following five straight seasons of exactly 33 starts each, so Lackey is normally a very dependable guy. 

He isn't an elite strikeout pitcher, but he is definitely above average.  His ERA has also been under 4.00 in every season since 2005 and he is one of the more automatic pitchers in baseball.   To me, Lackey is a perfect guy to have as the second starter on your team and you will be very, very happy with the production he gives you. 

Javier Vasquez, SP, New York Yankees

Vasquez had perhaps the best season of his career as he won 15 games, had the lowest ERA of his entire career by nearly a half a run, and was three strikeouts short of a career high.  Now Vasquez goes back to the Yankees where he didn't exactly perform to expectations the first time.  Of course those expectations are always sky high, but Vasquez was 14-10 with an ERA near 5.00 and the lowest strikeout total of his career in which he pitched a full season. 

The Yankees appear to be at the top of their game and Vasquez should benefit from that tremendous run support.  How will he be effected by a ballpark that seems to breed home runs?  That remains to be seen, but I think that he will be overrated this season.  I think that Vasquez can win 15-16 games, but I think that his ERA and strikeout numbers will not be what those in New York are hoping for. He will be a good third or great fourth guy to have on your pitching staff, but I have a feeling he will be taken much higher in fantasy drafts this season.

Rich Harden, SP, Texas Rangers

The questions with Harden have never been with his talent, as he is one of the best pitchers in all of major league baseball.  The obvious problem with Harden has been his inability to stay on the mound over the course of his career.  He has made 30 starts just once in his career and he has never thrown 200 innings.  Hell, he's only thrown over 150 once while in the majors. 

However, he has averaged over a strikeout an inning throughout his career, and he has had an ERA under 3.00 in three different seasons.  He now goes to Texas where the ball happens to fly in the summer, but he also should get a great deal of run support.  Based on his talent alone, he is good enough to be the second best pitcher on your squad, but with the injury concerns, he probably shouldn't be better than your fourth or you are taking a big chance. 

Edwin Jackson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Jackson went through plenty of tough times before he finally enjoyed success the past two seasons for the Rays and Tigers.  Even though he continued to win games down the stretch, he wasn't nearly as dominating as he was in the first half, as his ERA was over 5.00 after the All-Star break.

Jackson has been traded to the Diamondbacks who will likely struggle again this season, and what kind of effect will this have on him?  I have a bad feeling that Jackson will regress some and not have a very good season.  I don't like the way that he finished the season and the fact that he was traded to a lesser team.  He should get some sort of boost going to the National League, but it doesn't take the bad feeling out of my head. 

Brad Penny, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

Penny was so-so at best for the Red Sox for the first few months of the season, but after he was traded to the Giants he seemed like a whole new pitcher.  He was 4-1 with an ERA just over 2.50 in September and October, although he still didn't strikeout many batters. 

Penny is staying in the National League with the Cardinals and pitching coach Dave Duncan has a history of taking some mediocre pitchers and turn them into near All-Stars.  I don't think you can expect the same thing out of Penny, but I think he is capable of winning 12-14 games with an ERA just under 4.00 and perhaps 140-150 strikeouts. 

Randy Wolf, SP, Milwaukee Brewers.

Wolf put together what looks to be the best season of his career in 2009, and now he moves to the NL Central with the Brewers to see if he can duplicate that act. However, I wouldn't bet on it.  Wolf might have only won 11 games last year, but he took more than a run off his previous season's ERA and he struck out 160 batters for the second straight year. 

With all of that said, Wolf is just not a guy that I typically pick in fantasy unless it is near the end of the draft.  He doesn't generally really HELP you in any one category, he just doesn't HURT you in any either.  He won't win a ton of games, he won't strikeout a ton of guys, and I know his ERA was 3.22 last year, but it was over 4.00 in the previous six consecutive seasons.  So if Wolf is your fifth or sixth starter you have a good pitching staff, but if he is your second or third option it is going to be a long season. 

Jason Marquis, SP, Washington Nationals

Jason Marquis is okay.  Not bad, not great, just okay.  He is a fairly consistent pitcher, but again, consistently okay  You have pretty much known what you were going to get from him over the past four to five years—12-15 wins, an ERA over 4.00, nearly 200 innings, and about 125 strikeouts. 

Now he goes to Washington which really can't help his win total at all, and I think some of his peripheral numbers will suffer as well.  That said, I think he will still win 11 or 12 games, have an ERA of about 4.50, and 110 strikeouts.  Unless he is near the bottom of your pitching staff, I don't think he is someone that you should target. 

Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers

This is a young pitcher that I have a hell of a lot of confidence in and a ton of hope that he is going to turn into the dominant pitcher that he is supposed to be.  He has electric stuff and a dominating arm. It is just a matter if he can harness that power pitching and not walk so many guys and give up so many home runs.  So with this move you can look at things two ways.  You can say that he will be negatively effected by a move to the American League which has much better hitting lineups, or you can say he will be positively effected by a move to a much better team that is sure to win more games.  

I think it will be a little bit of both, but in the end I expect more from Scherzer as he will continue to progress as a young major league pitcher.  Look for him to win 14 games with an ERA of about 3.75 and at least 175 strikeouts.  He is another guy that I will be putting on plenty of my fantasy teams in 2010.

Kevin Millwood, SP, Baltimore Orioles

Millwood is another guy who had one of his better seasons in a while as he had 13 wins and his best ERA in four seasons.  After three seasons of sub-.500 records and/or ERAs over 4.50, Millwood went 13-10 with an ERA of near 3.50.  Unfortunately for Millwood, he signed with the worst team in the AL East which means that he will regularly face the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, which is not good for his win total or his ERA. 

He is starting to age, as he has already turned 35, and hasn't been a reliable fantasy pitcher in quite a while.  I wouldn't turn to Millwood unless it is the very end of the draft, and even then I would rather take a chance on a young up and coming guy or a rookie than an old retread veteran. 

Brandon Morrow, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

This is a guy that you really might want to take notice of because it is possible that he could turn into a big time pitcher.  Morrow has been toiling in Seattle over the past few years, one as a set-up man for J.J. Putz, and then two seasons in which the Mariners couldn't decide what they wanted to do with him.  He was a middle reliever, then he was going to be the closer, then he was going to be a starter, then back to closer again, back to relief again. With all the shuffling it's no wonder that Morrow has also been dealing with wildness and injury during this time. 

He was traded to the Blue Jays in the offseason and they immediately said that Morrow would be a part of their starting rotation.  He has the talent and an electric arm, you just have to be concerned about the injury history and the fact that he is yet to even throw 70 innings in a season.  How will he hold up through the long season with never putting near 150 innings on his arm?  Time will certainly tell on Morrow, but late in drafts he still should be available as an end of the roster type of starter and you could get a huge return on that investment. 

Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

There was no way the Phillies were going to trade Kyle Drabek.  Nope, he was untouchable, the one guy they wouldn't move in a deal.  Oh wait?  Roy Halladay?  Okay, see you later Kyle!  The son of former major leaguer Doug Drabek certainly has a lot of hype surrounding him as one of "the next big things."  Although I have to say after looking at his minor league numbers that I am not sure what all the fuss is about. 

Drabek had a nice career down on the farm, although he never pitched above AA.  He had a nice record of 19-10, but his ERA was too high for my liking at 3.70.  He posted good, but not great strikeout numbers, striking out 7.6 batters per nine innings, but also gave up just over eight hits per nine innings as well.  After missing most of 2008 with Tommy John surgery, Drabek came back fairly strong last year and now that he is in Toronto he has a real chance to start the year with the big club.  I wouldn't reach too far for this young kid, but definitely keep him on your radar or use him as a flier at the end of the draft.

Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds

Okay, maybe he isn't one of the "same faces" since this is the first time Chapman will be in the majors, but he is definitely in a "new place."  One of the most sought after free agent pitchers, I have to say that I was shocked that Chapman ended up in Cincinnati, but it definitely is a good thing.  Chapman pitched well in one game of the World Baseball Classic and is capable of throwing the ball 100 MPH. 

During the courting process, there were some questions of whether he would be a starter or reliever, but in Cincinnati I have to believe that he will be in the rotation.  He might need a little seasoning in the minors to start the season, but considering that Cincinnati gave him $5 million plus that shouldn't last long. 

He is a complete wild card this year, and given the fact that he has yet to pitch against too many major leaguers it is very hard to predict what he might do. He could come out and dominate or he could flounder horribly.  I wouldn't want Chapman to be anymore important than the fifth starter on my squad, and I wouldn't expect more than ten wins out of him.

Ian Kennedy, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Somehow the Yankees seem to be able to get other teams to pay top dollar for their prospects that they have already given up on, and that is what Arizona did with Kennedy.  The guy spent most of 2009 injured and he has just one major league win after 12 starts.  Kennedy was projected to have great major league stuff, but I truly wonder if he will ever be better than a number three or four pitcher on a major league team. 

I feel like he takes a huge step back being traded away from the Yankees to a sub par team in Arizona.  He will almost definitely be given a rotation spot if he is healthy enough to pitch, but I just don't expect him to do much with it.  Kennedy is not someone I would target on draft day, and I wouldn't expect him to win more than nine games, with an ERA near 5.00 and perhaps 125 strikeouts. 

Kelvim Escobar, SP, New York Mets

This was exactly the kind of move that the Mets needed to make.  Since they socked all that money into Jason Bay and they said they have limited money to spend, they need to take chances with some guys coming off injuries with good upside and Escobar fits that to a T. 

The last time he was healthy for a full season, Escobar was an 18 game winner, and while he isn't guaranteed a rotation spot, my guess is either he will win one or someone on the Mets' pitching staff will get hurt and he will get his chance anyway. 

He isn't a fireballer, but he records an above average number of strikeouts. However, you have to take into consideration his injury history.  Just know that if he does get into the rotation you have to hold your breath every five days that he gets through the start, because odds are one of those days he won't.  Definitely not someone you select on Draft Day, merely a guy to keep on your radar.

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