Beat the Bozo: Predict the Wins By SEC West Teams for 2010

It has come that time of the year when news runs out. The bowl games are over and the major recruiting has been done. Players have already declared for the NFL draft. 

It is usually this time of the year when I make myself the target of wrath and profanity by predicting some of the 2010 SEC football season. I will now attempt to do my best this year. 

In evaluating these results, I do not use incoming freshmen. I do not consider this year's recruiting class with the exception of ones enrolled on Jan. 1. I will predict the minimum amount of wins I expect.

Western Division

Alabama : Alabama will be replacing one offensive guard, one offensive tackle, and their kicker as key losses from the 2009 team.

On defense both cornerbacks must be replaced, one linebacker, one defensive tackle, and one punter. 

Nick Saban will have to replace the cornerbacks with freshmen or change positions for players currently on the team.

The linebacker spot should be filled by a returning player that was injured in 2009. There is a player in place for the defensive tackle spot. The problem is there is no replacement for the type of player that was playing that position. 

The Alabama team plays six SEC opponents after a bye week. They play two of their three biggest rivals away. 

Without a great coaching staff eight wins under these conditions would be exemplary. Alabama does have an excellent coaching staff and I expect them to pull out no less than ten wins this year.

LSU: I am not going to list the players that need to be replaced for this team. They have better ones to step in and pick up the pace. There is no position on the football field that LSU does not have premium talent to fill. 

The problem with this team is a neurotic coaching staff. The offensive coordinator has no idea of how to make the best of the skills and talent available to him. The quarterbacks are poorly coached and not prone to good development.

The offensive line is poorly coached and underachieving. The defense got better under the new defensive coordinator. I expect that trend to continue.

The one thing that always pulls this team through is incredible talent. They still have incredible talent and it keeps coming.

I would expect no less than nine wins from this team in 2010.

Arkansas:  This team does not have any really important losses to fill for 2010. The first great recruiting class of the current head coach is coming into their own this year.

Poor recruiting over the last two seasons will show up, but not in 2010. 2011 looks to be a long cold year for this team. 

Arkansas had no defense to mention in 2009 and will return the same defense for 2010. The defensive line will improve as freshmen mature into sophomores.

They ranked in the 90s in rushing defense in 2009 and I expect them to make improvements into the 70s for 2010. Pass defense was abysmal in 2009 and that will continue for 2010.

Arkansas returns a great passing offense and improving rushing offense. They will be better in 2010. I would expect this team to win no less than seven games in 2010.

Ole Miss: There is a talent trade going on this team. Good talent graduates and lesser talent is recruited. This has the team in a talent slide. This will be the second step back from their peek in 2008. This team will win no less than five games in 2010.

Mississippi State:  This team lost several key players on offense and defense. The new head coach has recruited equal or greater talent to replace these losses. This is a team in rebuilding and improving mode.

I look for this team to win no fewer than six games in 2010.

Auburn:  This team lost several key players. They also already had upgrades for each one already on the team. With the return of several starters that were medically redshirted last season and added experience to a very young team improvement will be hard to avoid. This team only lost two games by more than one score last season.

(Of all the teams in the Western Division this is the only one that could see a huge impact from incoming recruits. They have several big impact players committed that will be able to contribute if they work out. These were not considered in this assessment.)

I look for this team to win no less than 10 games in 2010. 

Please feel free to tell me why I am wrong. You are welcome to post your win predictions for the coming year for each team. It is always fun to put your early predictions in print and go back and see how those predictions fared.

Last year I was off by one game on Alabama, LSU in this division. Let us see how we all do this year.