Why the Cardinals Defense Will Shut Down the Saints Offense

I know, I know.

You're just going to have to hear me out on this one.

Since last week's classic shootout in the desert, much criticism has been fired at the Cardinals defense (despite their scoring the winning touchdown). They gave up an alarming 45 points.

And now they have to play the Saints.

Now they have to go against the high-powered offense that led the league with 403.8 offensive yards and 31.9 points per game.

If they gave up 45 points to the Packers, they're gonna give up 70 to the Saints, right?

I don't think so. Let me tell you why.

1. Look at the trends of the Packers and Saints

The Green Bay Packers were one of the hottest teams in the league coming into the postseason. They won seven out of their last eight games.

In the second half of the season they averaged a league-high 30.75 points per game and were only held under 27 points one time.

The New Orleans Saints come into the postseason riding a three-game losing streak. (One of those losses came in the final game without their starters.)

In the second half of the season they averaged 25.8 points per game, 12 points fewer than their first half average of 37.8.

With Drew Brees in the game, the Saints combined for just six points in six of their last eight quarters.

2. Look at the first half of last week's game

The Green Bay Packers, despite being the hottest league in the NFL, only put up 10 points on Arizona in the first half.

The Packers had six possessions in the first half. These six possessions resulted in one interception, one lost fumble, one punt, one missed field goal, one field goal, and one touchdown.

It wasn't until the Cardinals built a sizable lead (and moved to a prevent defense) that the Packers finally started finishing drives.

The combination of Arizona's prevent defense, the fact that the Packers were forced to a throw the ball, and a timely onside kick-off allowed the Packers to score in bunches at the end of this game.

3. Look at last year's NFC divisional playoff game

Last year, after beating the Atlanta Falcons, a hot team with a rising young quarterback (much like the Packers), the Cardinals traveled to Carolina for their divisional playoff game.

The Cardinals were a 10 point underdog to the 12-4 Carolina Panthers. Jake Delhomme entered the game with a 95.0 postseason passer rating. (At the time, the highest of any quarterback in the playoffs that season).

The Panthers, who had averaged an impressive 27.8 points per game during the season, managed just 13 against the Cardinals, as Delhomme threw five interceptions.

Six of their 13 points came on a meaningless touchdown in the final minute of the game, amid Cardinal celebration.

4. Look at the other side of the ball

The Green Bay Packers finished this season as the second ranked defense in the league. The Cardinals scored 51 points against them.

With the Packers' league-best rush defense, the Cardinals stuck to their guns and focused on the passing game.

While they did have considerable success running the ball, most of their drives were of the quick, through-the-air variety. This allowed the Packers plenty of time to comeback.

The New Orleans Saints finished the season as the 25th ranked defense.

Against a poor rushing defense, the Cardinals will be able to mix in a solid rushing game. I expect their scoring drives to be more of the eat-up-some-clock variety.

You can't score without possessions, and the Saints will be fortunate to get their hands on the ball. It will likely only come on kickoffs.

Conclusion

Maybe "shut down" is a little strong, but it seems to me that the Cardinals will be playing a lesser offense when they face the Saints this week.

And no one disputes that they will be playing a lesser defense.

Much like last year, the Cardinals seem to have played the tougher of their first two playoff games in the wild-card round.