Quick 2010 Fantasy Baseball Projection: Javier Vazquez

Having been sent to the New York Yankees early this offseason, a once potential fantasy ace in Javier Vazquez has been reduced to only a decent option with upside in the strikeout department. Let’s take a look at where my current projections have him:

215.0 IP, 16 W, 4.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 205 K (8.58 K/9), 57 BB (2.39 BB/9)

Thoughts

• After posting a dazzling 2.87 ERA in the NL last season, these numbers are a huge disappointment for those looking towards him as a top of the rotation option.
• The strikeouts are likely to regress from last season’s 9.77, being back in the AL where he no longer has the pitcher and weaker, bottom of the order hitters to pick on.  From 2006-2008, while pitching for the White Sox, he posted K/9s of 8.17, 8.85 and 8.64.  Where I have him is still an excellent mark, but a long way from his 2009 campaign.
• He has a career HR/9 of 1.16 and goes to a ballpark that is conducive for left-handed power hitters.  As a right-handed pitcher, that’s a bad combination.  My projection has him allowing 31 home runs next season, which wouldn’t even be his career high.  He allowed 35 in 2005 while with the Diamondbacks and 33 in his first stint with the Yankees.
• To go along with the home runs, his FB percentage of 34.8 percent is by far his lowest since 2002.  From 2003-2008 he was over 40 percent five out of six seasons, with a high of 43.4 percent.  More fly balls will just help lead to more home runs.
• His saving grace is his control, which has always been there for him.  His career BB/9 is 2.34 and his worst number since 2000 is 2.73 back in 2004, again during his last stint with the Yankees.
• My projection has him with a BABIP at .320, a number that he exceeded in two of his three seasons with the White Sox (.321 in 2006 and .328 in 2008).

There you have my thoughts, but what about you?  Am I being overly pessimistic on him due to his move back to the AL?  Do you see him significantly outperforming these projections?

Make sure to place your order for the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some more of our 2010 projections, including:

• Andrus, Elvis
• Baker, Scott
• Beckham, Gordon
• Butler, Billy
• Cabrera, Everth
• Cain, Matt
• Correia, Kevin
• Escobar, Alcides
• Harang, Aaron
• Kershaw, Clayton
• Kouzmanoff, Kevin
• Lee, Derrek
• Lopez, Jose
• Nolasco, Ricky
• Peralta, Jhonny
• Reimold, Nolan
• Suzuki, Ichiro
• Upton, B.J.
• Votto, Joey
• Werth, Jayson
• Wieters, Matt

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