Chicago Cubs Entangled in Ben Sheets: What Ace Could Bring to North Side

Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports today that the Chicago Cubs are deep in contention to sign free-agent right-handed starting pitcher Ben Sheets, lately of the rival Milwaukee Brewers.

Sheets, 31, missed all of the 2009 season with an elbow injury. Reports indicate, however, that he expects to be ready to take the mound by the time Spring Training starts. Given his tough injury history, the real question may not be whether he can get healthy, but whether he can stay that way. Sheets has not made more than 31 starts since 2004.

As large a risk as Sheets would be, though, he has undeniable, tremendous upside. Sheets is a four-time All-Star, has a career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.85, and has not had an ERA above 3.82 since 2003. When healthy, in short, Sheets is dominant, and he could become an overnight ace if he can take the ball every fifth day.

The question of whether he can or not, though, is an interesting one. Sheets' curve-ball has long been the suspected culprit behind his arm issues. Chicago had good success with injury risk Rich Harden over the past season and a half, but were able to do so by encouraging Harden to throw his change-up more often at the expense of his slider. Sheets relies too heavily on his hook to make the same kind of transition.

The numbers being tossed around by Sheets' representatives range from $10-12 million over two years. The Cubs, however, seem to be in enviable position of standing alone in line for Sheets. That should allow them to get him for two-thirds of that money, with the chance to earn the rest if he can stay on the mound.

At that price, Sheets would be worth the investment. He could go to work right away with pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who recently coaxed Kerry Wood's career back from the brink of destruction. If Chicago can get even 150 innings of Sheets' best baseball, they have the pitching depth to dominate the National League Central. 

Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster already anchor a starting rotation that runs six or seven men deep. Young arms Randy Wells and Tom Gorzelanny, embattled newcomer Carlos Silva and swing men Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija are also in the mix. That makes the Cubs' leverage even stronger; it seems, for now at least, that Sheets needs the Cubs more than the Cubs need Sheets.

Add it all up, and Sheets is one of a few different options left for GM Jim Hendry to consider, as he toys with inexpensive ways to make the Cubs better before pitchers and catchers report next month. It may well be that, after considering the positions of each side, Sheets and the Cubs are the best possible fit for one another.