Another Move I Like

On the whole, I like the Mariners’ decision to sign center fielder Franklin Gutierrez to the four-year $20.5 million deal he just signed.

There are always risks in signing any player to a longer contract extension than you have to, and in this market, I’m sure the Mariners didn’t have to give Gutierrez a four-year deal.  On the other hand, when market prices are especially low, that’s the best time to lock in your young talent to multiple years at a depressed price.

Gutierrez was the best centerfielder in MLB last year.  Aside from his very high UZR and UZR/150 numbers, his 3.0 chances per nine innings was higher than any other centerfielder in baseball except Adam Jones, who played 35 fewer games at the position than Gutierrez did.  Gutierrez also made 41 more put outs than the major leagues’ next highest centerfielder Mike Cameron.  Cameron has long been recognized by those who know as one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game.

Gutierrez hits fairly well for a centerfielder also.  His OPS numbers the last three years were .790 (in his first year as a semi-regular player), .690 (in his sophmore season) and .764 (last year).  He will be age 27 through 30 through the four years of the contract extension, and if he stays healthy throughout, my reasonable guess is that he’ll post OPS numbers between .740 and .825 each of those four seasons.  Assuming his 2009 defensive numbers weren’t a fluke, he’ll be a bargain for the M’s at roughly $5.1 million per season.

The biggest problem with contracts like these is that there’s a good chance Gutierrez will become a big star player for the M’s and at the end of the contract coming off a great 2013 season, the Mariners won’t have the heart to let another team be the one to give Gutierrez the big free agent contract he’ll be too old over the life of the contract to earn.  As any business man will tell you, a risk like that four years down the line is one you’ll take any day of the week.