Pure Speculation: Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette Are Keys To Warriors Success

Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette are combining for 44.3 points per game, which is 41.3 percent of Golden State’s overall scoring. They are both accumulating a lot of value, but in different ways.

Maggette is putting in high quality minutes with a 21.01 PER, though he is only averaging 28.5 of them on the season. He is scoring 18.6 points per game to Ellis’ 25.7, but is on the court for an average of 13 less minutes than Ellis.

Maggette’s minutes have been increasing throughout the season:

October (2 games)- 22.0 minutes per game

November (14 games) - 25.7 minutes per game

December (15 games) – 30.6 minutes per game

January (3 games) – 33.7 minutes per game

Over the last 12 games he has averaged 10.1 free-throws per game (he’s averaging 7.7 attempts on the season), shooting 85.1 percent from that distance. Corey leads the league in field goal percentage for small forwards at 53.3 percent. If he didn’t shoot a three pointer this year (6/31=.194), then his field goal percentage would be at 56.4 percent.

His 9.8 rebounds per 48 minutes are tied for the third best among small forwards and he is averaging 5.8 per game on the year (Randolph leads the team with 6.6 per game). His 0.88 assist to turnover ratio isn’t great and his 2.1 assists per game contribute to the Warriors sorry team assist average of 21.3 per game. Also, the Warriors have 14.7 percent of their possessions ending in an assist; good for 19th in the NBA.

Other than the assists, Maggette’s efficiency is undeniable. In terms of value added, which is Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67) with PRL (positional replacement level) being 10.5 for small forwards, he ranks third in the western conference for his position:

Durant: 273.5

Anthony: 261.9

Maggette: 148.0

Gay: 135.9

Maggette is playing dynamically on both a per minute basis and overall.

On defense, the Warriors threes are out-producing opposing threes by +1.2 PER according to 82games.com. Maggette is second in the league in fouls with 109 (C. Anthony=110) for those who qualified at small forward, so he is at least a somewhat physical presence when defending. 

Monta Ellis is putting in 5.2 assists per game and has a so-so 1.23 assist per turnover ratio, though some of his turnovers have been offensive foul calls. He is still stealing a large number of balls, with 2.30 heists per game. His defense has been contagious for Stephen Curry, who averaged 2.30 assists per contest in the month of December and has six in three games so far this month.

Monta’s three point percentage has been steadily dropping as he’s only made seven of his last 37 shots from beyond the arc, dropping his season total down to .285. Despite this trouble from distance, his overall field goal shooting has been very effective. His scoring percentage has been especially pointing upwards lately, with Ellis getting through the paint often.

He has shot 51.7 percent over the last 10 games, which has raised his on the year mark to 47.2 percent. Willing himself to the rack has drawn a career best 6.0 free-throw attempts per game, topping his previous season high of 5.1.

He has 0.9 offensive rebounds and 4.3 overall rebounds per game. In terms of value added, Ellis is in concert with Maggette, also ranking third in the western conference for his position.

Bryant: 299.7

Roy: 230.0

Ellis: 148.4

Ginobli: 110.7

Warriors shooting guards are defeating opponents in PER by +3.0 and Ellis is basically playing the entire game. Along with his efficient scoring, Ellis is becoming lockdown defensively, often taking on players who play larger positions.

It is a bit of a drag on the offense to have the top two scorers being great at one-on-one play without much passing to their teammates. But if Curry can take on more ball-handling duties and accrue a hefty amount of assists, then this won’t be much of an issue. The Warriors heart of Ellis and Maggette is strong and if they can stay healthy, wins should be soon to follow.