Texas-Alabama: The Winner Is?

Here is my strategy to determine who is going to win this game: It's a three category system.

1. 3rd down efficiency (offense)

2. 3rd down efficiency (defense)

3. Turnover margin

It's not complicated. It's statistically proven. It's not from gut feelings. However, I'm unsure how well this strategy works against the lines.

When I pick games, I'm right 65 percent of the time on the lines and correct 80 percent of the time on the winner.

Sorry, but I haven't used a strategy picking winners when I gambled on games. I'm currently taking a break.

I will say, however, this strategy is better suited for the NFL since the teams have more parity whereas college football has less with their 120 teams.

One example? Boise State, who went undefeated and won games on average by 30 points in conference play (WAC), barely won its bowl game over TCU from the Mountain West Conference by seven points.

I imagine if Boise played in the SEC they wouldn't go undefeated. No disrespect to Boise, but more quality competition resides in the SEC and the Big 12. Tonight, both teams are housed in these two competitive conferences.

Ok, it's prediction time.

3rd Down Efficiency (offense)

Texas ranks eighth nationally, converting 46 percent of the time on 3rd down. Alabama ranks no. 57, converting 41 percent of the time on 3rd down.

Winner? Texas

3rd Down Efficiency (defense)

Texas ranks second nationally, only allowing its opponents to convert on 3rd down 27 percent of the time. Alabama ranks third behind Texas, only allowing its opponents to convert 29 percent of the time on 3rd down.

Winner? Texas

Turnover Margin Texas ranks eighth nationally at +.92 turnovers a game. Alabama ranks fifth nationally at +1.23 turnovers a game.

Winner? Alabama

Therefore, based on my system, Texas will win the game.

Now, if you want gut feeling, I'd say that Alabama is going to win. I just don't think Texas' offense will hold up against Alabama's defense for four quarters.

Both teams haven't played a game in 33 days. It takes the offense a lot longer to get in sync than it does the defense.

But you can't go with emotion and instincts in games of chance; Gambling on football is a game of chance.

I didn't do the numbers on the "line" but I'd say take the under, which is 46.

Ricky Writer

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