Fedex Orange Bowl Preview: Bettor Beware

When this line first opened up at Georgia Tech -2 I thought there had to be a mistake. After all, prior to this years success of the Big Ten in Bowl Games, most notably Penn State and Ohio State, this conference has lost a lot of its luster. Georgia Tech finished their 2009 regular season with an 11-2 record featuring impressive victories over: Virginia Tech and Clemson(both in the regular season and ACC Championship).

However, despite Georgia Tech's impressive record, this is a defense that has given up a lot of points in a very average ACC conference. While no one questions their lethal triple option attack, they possess at best an average passing game. Conventional wisdom suggests that Georgia Tech will run the ball down Iowa's throat since Iowa is not prepared for this type of attack.

Paul Johnson is an excellent coach and after last years embarrassing loss at the hands of an angry LSU team, I expect a much more spirited effort from the Yellow Jackets. Furthermore, with the Iowa offense struggling at the end of the season due to key injuries, the Georgia Tech defensive unit will be under significantly less pressure than in previous games against the likes of : Georgia, Clemson, etc.

While most would argue the key to this game is how Iowa's defense will hold up against this triple option, I think the most important element that will determine this game is the Iowa offense. With an injured Ricky Stanzi scheduled expected to play, it is imperative for the Hawkeyes to take time off the clock and put up some points early. Even without Stanzi, Iowa managed to score 24 points against a very good Ohio State team.

Defensively, Iowa has been excellent.  Given over a month to prepare for this game I expect Kirk Ferentz' defense to make plays and at the very least slow down this Georgia Tech offense. Throughout this season Iowa has been able to make plays on the defensive side of the ball and as a result, won many close games.

Trends: Both teams have impressive trends supporting them heading into this contest. Iowa is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 bowl games, 4-1 against the spread vs. last 5 non-conference opponents, and 4-1 against the spread in games where they are a 3.5+ point underdog.

Conversely, Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and 4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. 

Prediction: with 62% of the gaming public on Georgia Tech and the line running up to 5 (might be higher by kickoff), I will take the Iowa Hawkeyes with the points. While I appreciate the arguments made in favor of Georgia Tech coasting, I think Iowa is battle tested and well coached enough to keep this one close. Besides, when the concensus opinion starts to sway in a certain direction, I have found much success taking the road less travelled. So far in  bowl predictions on this site I am 3-0.