What to Do with Mike Lowell?

The Red Sox signed 3Bman Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal that guarantees him $9 million in 2010 and includes a $5 million player option for 2011.  Beltre had a poor year with the bat in 2009, posting an OPS of only .683 (did that shot to the stones he took in August bring down his numbers?  Somewhat: he hit poorly when he came back in September, but he also hit poorly in April and May).

However, Beltre will be 31 in 2010 and had three strong years with the bat from 2006-2008, so he’s a good bet to bounce back in 2010.

Of all major league 3Bmen, Adrian Beltre had fangraphs’ highest UZR/150 rating at 21.0.  However, with 14 errors and only 17 doubleplays turned, 2009 doesn’t look like one of his stronger years with the glove to me.  However, he still had 3.0 chances per nine innings last year and a long history of above-average defense at 3B.

On balance, it’s a good move for the Red Sox, but now they have to find a way to turn Mike Lowell and his $12 million 2010 contract into something worthwhile.  It’s safe to say that Beltre and Lowell on the same team aren’t worth $21 million.

In following the game these oh-so-many years, one thing I’ve noticed is that smart, successful teams like the Red Sox usually have surprisingly little trouble dumping just-over-the-hill players like Mike Lowell on some poorer, dumber team without taking too much of a hit in the process, even when the former is dealing from a what would seem to be an obvious position of weakness.

The Blue Jays managing to unload Scott Rolen and the lion’s share of his contract on the Reds is a case in point.  Not that I have anything against Scott Rolen, except that he’s old and showing it (35 in 2010; hasn’t played as many as 130 games in any of the last three seasons, and only once in the last five seasons), expensive, and he won’t by himself make the Reds a playoff-contending team.

Better to lay off the overpriced veterans until you have put together a young team that actually manages to win 85 games in a season.  Then, you can plug the obvious holes with high-priced veterans as you make your pennant run.

The Rangers and Red Sox had an agreement in principle which fell apart when Lowell failed his physical due to his bad thumb.  He’s now had surgery, and if the thumb is right come mid-March, I expect that the Red Sox will work another deal with the Rangers.

The Rangers, seeing the Red Sox now have one expensive 3Bman too many, ought to drive a much tougher bargain than they did the first time around.  They’ve got the Sox over a barrel, and Lowell is damaged goods, no matter how he looks in Spring Training.  At least, that’s the tact the Rangers should take.

However, if Lowell is healthy by the end of Spring Training, I suspect the Rangers will pull the trigger on a deal that doesn’t get them much more than the Red Sox offered a month ago.  Teams in the position the Rangers are in now, dealing with financial problems as the team tries to sell itself in a bad market, always seem to have a hard time laying off guys like Lowell, if they think they are getting him at a bargain price.  Since the Red Sox have already offered to pay $9 million of Lowell’s 2010 salary, I don’t think it would take too much more to get a second deal done.