The State Of Virginia Basketball

The state of Virginia basketball is good.  As nearly all the state's teams have played more than ten games, we are beginning to get enough data points for some of the numerical rating systems, such as the Rating Percentage Index (RPI) to make sense. 

The RPI makes more sense as the season wears on, and by tournament time it gives the selection committee an impartial measure of performance, although by no means perfect.  Let's take a snapshot of the eight Virginia schools in the top half of the 347 schools in the RPI ranking. 

This is not to say that these ratings are correct, but it will be a simple way to organize our picture.  I have checked RPI data on five different web sites which make the RPI available timely without charge.  A couple of examples are teamrankings.com and thehoopsreport.com . 

Leading the RPI for Virginia is William & Mary (9-2) of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) at No. 3. 

W&M opened the season with two tough road losses at No. 8 Connecticut (10-3) and at a surprising No. 25 Harvard (9-3).

After those two opening losses, the Tribe won 10 straight, including home victories over Richmond and VCU, and impressive road victories over Wake Forest and Maryland.  In their first twelve games they averaged a positive scoring margin of 7.2 points.  That is not breathtaking, but it is against their RPI-calculated strength of schedule (SOS) ranked 14 nationally.

Virginia Commonwealth (9-2) , another CAA school, is second in the state with an RPI ranking of 19.  VCU is a high scoring operation averaging 76.9 points per game.  Their average scoring margin is a positive 8.6 points, and their SOS is a decent 57.

Richmond (11-4) at No. 24 is the third Commonwealth team in the top 25, playing in the competitive Atlantic 10.  So far, their SOS is ranked a healthy number 40. 

The Spiders are the most defensive minded of the top three, holding their opponents to 60.7 points per game.  They have all the pieces, but have lacked intensity.  Those excellent pieces should fit together increasingly better as March approaches.

Back in the CAA, Old Dominion (9-5) was looking very good until they were defeated at George Mason on Saturday, 55-71.  Nevertheless, they are ranked No. 43 in today's RPI.  They have a positive scoring margin of 11.0 points against a schedule currently ranked a strong No. 23 in the country.  They hold their opponents to a mere 55.1 points per game.

At No. 58 in today's RPI is the winningest team in the state of Virginia, Virginia Tech (12-1) .  The Hokies have won by an average of 14.2 points per game.  However, they have played a weak schedule.  Their SOS is ranked a lowly 264.

Tech's one loss was at home to a good Temple (11-2) team.  Yesterday they collected a 103-94 OT win at Cancun, Mexico over Seton Hall (9-4).  That win was the more impressive because the Hokies played without their star guard, Malcolm Delaney, who averages 19.8 points and 3.5 assists per game.

Rounding out the top eight Virginia teams in the RPI are Radford (7-5) out of the Big South with an RPI of 90.  Radford is followed by George Mason (7-6) , a fourth CAA team, ranked 137 and Virginia (7-4) of the ACC, ranked 170.

The balance of this year's conference season should be very interesting as W&M, VCU, ODU and GMU battle for the CAA championship.  The CAA is currently ranked 10 out of 31 conferences in the RPI calculations.  We will have a lot to enjoy during the next three months.

Richmond is making noise in the Atlantic 10 conference, which is ranked as the fifth strongest conference.  The Spiders could come in third in that competitive group.  Not many preseason pundits called it that way.

I'm think VA Tech has a shot at edging onto the top third of the 12-team ACC.  If the young UVA team continues to develop, they may make their way into the middle third of the ACC.  The ACC is the third-ranked conference behind the Big East and the Big 12.

That leaves Radford in the Big South.  While it is not one of the stronger conferences, Radford is in a tight battle with Coastal Carolina (9-2) for that championship.  Both teams are currently 3-0 in the conference.  We will have to keep an eye on that.  Perhaps, one more Virginia team for the big dance.