Auburn-Northwestern: Outback Bowl Battle in Paradise

More than a month removed from their last games of the 2009 season, the Auburn Tigers and Northwestern Wildcats will face off in the 2010 Outback Bowl on New Year's Day.

Both teams utilize a version of the spread offense.  Northwestern uses a potent passing attack and defensive stands to keep games close, while Auburn has used its spread offense and opportunistic defense to claim victory.

Both teams have interesting matchups on both sides of the ball.

Northwestern's Offense vs. Auburn's Defense

Mike Kafka has gotten it done for Northwestern.  He has seemingly used everyone on the offense to create opportunities and score points.  Wide receivers Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen are two of Kafka's favorite targets.

The Wildcats throw the ball everywhere, which will undoubtedly test the Auburn secondary deep.  The short passes and screens will test the range and durability of Auburn's depleted linebacker corp. 

Where Auburn has a distinct advantage is in the trenches.  Auburn's defensive front is well known for its pass rushing ability.  This will cause the Wildcats to lean more on the screens to keep Kafka from getting sacked. 

Due to the lack of a ground game for the Wildcats, Auburn will have an easier time playing the pass.  Auburn statistically has been poor against the run, but running isn't Northwestern's forte. 

Key Matchup: DE Antonio Coleman vs. OT Neal Dieters and DE Antonie Carter vs. OT Al Netter.

This is where people should look at the start of the game.  Coleman and Carter are established pass rushers for Auburn, which will cause problems for Dieters and Netter.  Northwestern will be better off if they can push Coleman and Carter outside of the pocket.

Kafka can burn you with his feet if there is open ground in front of him.  If Coleman and Carter get to Kafka early, it will easily slow down the Wildcat passing attack. 

Auburn's Offense vs. Northwestern's Defense

Here's where it will be interesting.  Northwestern, albeit not great, has a good defense that has held opponents when needed. 

Looking at how Northwestern has played, however, they haven't faced an offensive line that is as aggressive as Auburn's.  Auburn can run the football.  No doubt about it.  Early on, expect Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn to punish the Wildcat defensive front with Ben Tate on the inside.

Then it could get even more fun for the Tigers.  Moving Philip Lutzenkirchen to the H-back position in place of Eric Smith will give Malzahn an extra wrinkle in his plays that the Wildcats won't see on film. 

While the running game should garner the most attention, Northwestern will also have to cover wide receivers Terrell Zachery and Darvin Adams.  Wildcat safeties Brad Phillips and Brian Peters will have their hands full covering the run and the pass. 

Key Matchup: RBs Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb vs. Nortwestern's Defense

Let's not kid ourselves.  In order for Auburn to win, they must run the football.  Inside, outside, end-arounds, reverses, etc. Northwestern will easily devote defenders to the run to put the game in the hands of Chris Todd and the Tiger receivers.

With how Malzahn moves the pace of the game, Northwestern could easily tire out as the game goes on.  Tate and McCalebb, when effective, have been a one-two punch that most defenses have failed to stop. 

Northwestern's Special Teams vs. Auburn's Special Teams

In a game that could be a toss up, special teams will play an important role.  Auburn's punt return game has had problems during the year, but Northwestern's punting game is not the most stellar in college football.

Both field goal units are above average. 

Prediction

It's obvious what Auburn needs to do to win the football game.  Auburn needs to run the ball while Northwestern has to commit to stopping the run. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, I don't see them stopping Tate, McCalebb, and Mario Fannin. 

Once Auburn gets the ground game going it will open up the play action, which will give playmakers Adams and Zachery a chance to put up some points.

Kafka will cause some problems early for the Tigers, but sooner or later, players like Auburn linebackers Josh Bynes and Craig Stevens will adjust.

The one thing you can't predict: how the layoff will affect both squads.

I have seen predictions ranging from an Auburn blowout to a close Northwestern victory. I'll stay in the more reasonable range.

AUBURN 31, NORTHWESTERN 17