Note: This is part of our ongoing “FCS Week” feature here at ITB. Continue to check back this week for more news and analysis from around the Football Championship Subdivision (I-AA.)
For fans of college football’s top teams, this is usually the time of year when we obsess about preseason rankings, compulsively assess the situation of our teams’ conference rivals, and often completely forget to worry about that small state or private school down the road that was given a half-million dollar check to essentially be blown out in a warm-up performance.
Yet for the fans of those schools, and for the fans of Football Championship Subdivision (formerly I-AA) schools everywhere across the country, the prospect of such a game presents the challenge of the lifetime, and a chance to rise from relative obscurity to national prominence for at least one Saturday afternoon.
Last year we were given a crash course in just what an inter-subdivision upset could mean, with Corey Lynch’s blocked field goal against Michigan serving as the iconic image of the season.
While this year’s matchups may not present the kind of earth-shattering implications that Appalachian State’s upset of Michigan did, beginning on August 28th dozens of these FCS teams will be chasing that same dream, trying to play the role of David against their respective Goliaths.
Over the next week we’ll be counting down the Top 10 most-likely FCS-over-FBS upsets of 2008, as well as discussing the trends of these upsets and just what it takes for these smaller programs to take down even proven FBS winners.
Keep in mind, this list is just an assessment of the FCS teams with the best chances to take down certain FBS teams—meaning, among other things, that there could be more or fewer upsets than the ten I have listed here.
Today we’re looking at my tenth through eighth most likely upsets for 2008, and starting with a very familiar team…
No. 10: Appalachian State at LSU (Aug. 30)
Louisiana State University is fresh off a National Championship in which the Tigers won the SEC and pounded Ohio State 38-24 to take the title of number one team in America. Surely such a team would be unstoppable against a lowly FCS team, wouldn’t it?
The answer is probably a very solid “of course,” but when discussing Appalachian State, one almost needs to throw all of last season’s accolades out the window. So let’s start with what we know.
17 comments Last one added 10 months ago — Leave a Comment
Michael Shibley about 1 year ago
Great Article Brian! A tip of the hat for knowing your stuff about I-AA teams! I am just glad your won't see Tennessee on this list, because they haven't played a I-AA team since 1983.
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Jude Johnston about 1 year ago
OK article, but these two lines stuck out to me....
"It’ll be interesting to see if this lack of championship experience at critical positions like quarterback and safety effects the way Les Miles runs his team."
"which will be critical if they’re to stifle an LSU running game which could lean heavily on Keiland Williams and Trindon Holliday."
QB with no championship experience is correct, but don't forget Steltz got hurt in the game and didn't play in 3 quarters...Curtis Taylor came in all season in certain sets and played well and intercepted a pass in the BCS champioship game...Harry Coleman came in when Steltz went out, played pretty much the whole game and recovered a blocked field goal(by Ricky Jean-Francois, who will fill Dorsey's void) in the BCS Championship Game....Saying these two safeties have a lack of Championship experience is silly....They have more Champioship experience than just about every other safety on any other team in the country besides Ohio State's safeties....
And on the running game...Yes, LSU will lean heavily on Keiland Williams, but Trindon Holliday only averaged 3 touches a game last year...He is a weapon, not a true running back...If you look into it, you will see the names Charles Scott and Richard Murphy in the LSU backfield as well...They both had pretty good years, and are the ones that are going to compete with Keiland for the tailback position...those three will be the ones that LSU will depend on to help the QB situation...Not saying the "fastest man in College Football" should be overlooked, but he is only used in certain situations and in the return game
Armanti is a beast, and it will be interesting to see how the LSU defense defends him...
I did not know that they lost so much on offense...
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Tim Pollock about 1 year ago
The "shaky" stats on SC's defense were when virtually half the team was out with injuries. The Gamecock defense and special teams will both be improved and at the top of the SEC, and for the defense, perhaps the country, if the offense can stay on the field for more than three plays at a time.
Beecher was named the 1st string quarterback after Spring ball (not sure how he could be third string since there were only two guys competing for the job), and, once again, to say he "struggled with accuracy and interceptions" is extremely misleading. The guy just hasn't seen the field enough.
I agree that the Gamecocks will be inconsistent, but I seem them burying Wofford early this year.
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Jeremy Scott about 1 year ago
Everyone thought carolina would bury Wofford two years ago, as well. They were quiet late in the 4th quarter at Williams Bryce when Wofford drove down to the 4 yard line, knocking on the door of scoring the game winning touchdown with only 30 seconds to go in the game. A mis-snap gave Carolina a narrow victory, but you would think "big time" college football fans would lose their pompous attitudes at some points (I suppose that would be overestimated either their intellegence or general football knowledge).
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David Wunderlich about 1 year ago
App State will not under any circumstances beat LSU. I would be surprised if it is close. There is a huge difference between beating a Michigan program using outdated schemes in the least intimidating large venue in the country and something else entirely to beat LSU in Baton Rouge.
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David Wunderlich about 1 year ago
Forgot to mention, but I bet North Dakota State over Wyoming is one of the remaining picks.
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Abraham Khorasani 10 months ago
NDSU over Wyoming is probably not an upset. The top FCS teams are in all likelihood better than many of the non-major FBS teams.
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Nicholas Heidelberger about 1 year ago
good stuff here, way to do your homework.
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d a about 1 year ago
Really, I you do seem to know your stuff about I-AA teams I must admit, but 2 upsets against the SEC in the top 10 already. The SEC has been the best conference in college football for at least the last 5 years. That conference may not have this unbelievable speed that everyone talks about, but then again no one talks about the strength of SEC teams (no one with the exception of Ohio State that is). The SEC teams have had no more than 3 losses in bowl games per year in the last 5 years. It is an underrated conference just like how many I-AA teams go underrated. If you want to pick a in upset that may actually happen you should look at over-hyped conferences such as the Pac-10 or the Big-10. Out of the SEC teams that actually finished over 500 in the conference only Florida (in their defensive flop against Michigan) and Tennessee (who was essentially the only team that played a Cal team that was completely healthy). Don't get me wrong I was a big fan of the Appalachian State upset last year, but then again Michigan was terribly overrated as they proved by in their losses to Oregon,and Wisconsin so although it was not talked about they had a great chance to win. It just seems that this game is in the list for no other reason than they beat Michigan last year and that's it.
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Trendon L about 1 year ago
Although I know you sort of have to do it, I steadfastly refuse to play games with these new acronyms. I-A and I-AA is what they are.
That said, fantastic article. I look forward to the next seven.
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BabyTate about 1 year ago
Carolina should beat Wofford. The Wofford bone will not surprise Carolina. Maryland will have a scrap with Delaware. Appalachian State will not be easy for LSU in the battle between the 2 national champions of 2007. Appy is quick on quick and as deep as major college big timers. The grass field of LSU will hurt Appy as they play on astro turf which allows their speed to really show. But that QB for App St is an incredible athlete despite being pencil thin.
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S M Napier about 1 year ago
It will be a great game. But Appy doesn't have Les or the speed that LSU has. They are re-cock & loaded ready to go and heard other than QB they replaced what they lost. Sure it will be close in 1st half, but LSU will control the game in 2nd half. Plus Les, will have a trick or two up his sleeve.
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Matt Titman about 1 year ago
(Maryland, in contrast, does not usually draw well for OOC games.)
Really? Last year I just happened to mosy on over to Byrd Stadium and use my ticket to watch the Villanova game. Place was full. Seeing as how this is at Maryland, I assume it's gonna be packed to the brim, especially with people who know that Delaware is a quality team.
Also, Josh Portis? Doubtful. Chris Turner did well once he got into the starter's role, especially against Rutgers in that nationally televised game.
Also, UD may have put up 581 yards or whatever on Navy. IT'S NAVY! They're undersized and can't defend against quality teams. Watch the North Texas game? Defense is never high on Navy's priorities.
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Josh Prope about 1 year ago
all because the are in the bowl subdivision doesnt mean that the I-AA teams are any less talented
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JJ Stankevitz about 1 year ago
The link to the App State video was great—I had forgot about that. Even when it's cold cold cold, Appalachian State is hot hot hot...
Great read.
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Reggie Garcia about 1 year ago
Wofford will beat SC, because SC is simply not that good.
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Abraham Khorasani 10 months ago
Nice to see someone giving FCS the respect it deserves. Good article.
Here's hoping UMass can pull off an upset over Texas Tech!
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