Boxing

# Predicting a Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather, Jr. Outcome = Bad Math

Ethan Miller/Getty Images
J SorianoCorrespondent INovember 17, 2009

I am not the first to write about this potential blockbuster matchup. And I won't be the last.

But as I wade through the great sports blogosphere looking for articles about Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr., I can't help but laugh at the number of bad math calculations attributed to this megafight-in-the-works.

Here's one:

Pacquiao struggled against Juan Manuel Marquez.

Mayweather dominated Marquez in every possible way.

Therefore, Floyd will dominate Manny, right?

Here's another:

Mayweather edged out De La Hoya on points.

Pacquiao crushed De La Hoya, leaving him on his stool.

Therefore, Manny will crush Floyd, no?

Not necessarily.

As sports fans, we do this all the time. We do it in every conceivable sport. It's a common practice of trying to predict who will win by attributing some quantifiable results into a formula. Sometimes it works but most often, it doesn't.

To use an old cliche, "that's why they play the games," folks.

And in this situation, the bad math just won't do it.

Try it again:

Mayweather took 10 rounds to finish off Ricky Hatton.

Pacquiao destroyed Hatton in 2.

Therefore Manny will destroy Floyd, right?

Wrong.

While this might seem logical, it really doesn't bode well in boxing.

The sweet science is all about style, training, and heart. Unfortunately those elements are tough to quantify, and impossible to put into a formula.

So while it may be tough to predict the outcome of this fight (should it actually happen), I think we can all agree that both fighters will bring their own formula of style, training and heart to the ring.

Manny's style brings speed, a great volume of punches, and angles that would make a physicist proud. We know he trains hard. And we know he brings alot of heart.

Floyd brings quickness, deception, and one of the great defenses in the modern era. He trains hard, is supremely fit, and has enough pride to fill a stadium.

But try and put this into a discernible formula and you're sure to get some fuzzy math.

Let's hope this fight happens so we can all ponder how Manny's TKO of Cotto in 2009 can be measured against Mayweather's dismantling of Gatti in 2005.

I'd like to see how that one adds up.

Where can I comment?